NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers vs. Rams on Thursday Night Football (September 10th)

After a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl started off the new season on Wednesday, the NFL is taking things international for the second game of Week 1. The focus of the league shifts all the way to Melbourne, Australia, for an NFC West showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. Each team made significant offseason moves and is favored to make the playoffs, with the Rams the favorite to win the Super Bowl as the season gets underway. In this contest, the Rams are listed as 3.5-point favorites, while the over/under is 48.5 points for this matchup.

Last year, both teams finished at 12-5 and made the playoffs. They finished behind the Seahawks in the division and then watched the ‘Hawks soar to their Super Bowl triumph. Both teams went on the road and won a Wild Card game before losing to the Seahawks in back-to-back weeks on their Super Bowl run.

With some new players in the mix on both sides, can either team push deeper into the postseason and maybe even represent the AFC in Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium? Their journey will start far away from home as they face their division rival in the Land Down Under. Let’s take a closer look at whats should be a great matchup this Thursday night in primetime.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The two teams split their two matchups last season, with the 49ers winning in L.A. in overtime in Week 5, 26-23, and the Rams getting their revenge in San Francisco with a convincing win in Week 10, 42-26. Both teams are packed with studs to consider since both offenses are stuffed with playmakers.

The highest median and ceiling projections in THE BLITZ projections and the highest floor projection in Koerner’s projections come from the 49ers’ stud running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is a little cheaper than Puka Nacua, who has similar projections across the board, and as a result, CMC is a little easier to build around and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a FLEX spot in THE BLITZ projections.

McCaffrey averaged 25.2 DraftKings points per game while playing all 17 regular-season games for the 49ers last year. He had 27.9 DraftKings points against the Rams in Week 5 and 17.6 DraftKings points in the rematch, showing he can dominate even in a tough matchup against the Rams. He scored 17 touchdowns in 17 games in the regular season and added two more scores in his two playoff games, both coming as part of his 29.4 DraftKings points against the Eagles.

CMC took it easy during training camp and missed some time with “tightness,” but he wasn’t on the team’s injury report leading up to this matchup and should be all systems go for the start of the year.

McCaffrey brings a very high ceiling and a high floor since he is so heavily featured in both the passing and rushing attacks. Last year, he averaged 5.9 catches per game in the regular season and postseason, and so much PPR volume makes him a very safe play but also gives him a very high ceiling at the same time.

On the other side, Nacua has the highest median projection and the highest Plus/Minus projection in Koerner’s projections and the highest floor projection in THE BLITZ projections. He is the most expensive play, but his high volume makes him worth a look if you have the salary.

Puka posted 24.5 and 17.4 DraftKings points in his two matchups with the Niners last year and averaged 25.1 DraftKings points in his 19 regular-season and playoff games. He racked up 14 touchdowns and averaged over 8.0 catches and 107 receiving yards per contest. Nacua had at least nine catches in three of his last four games, and the offense leaned even more heavily on him in the playoffs when it mattered most.

Like McCaffrey, Nacua has been limited by injury this preseason but is not on the injury report, so he should be ready to roll after a turbulent offseason. While there could be some suspension concerns down the road, for Week 1, he is ready to resume his high-volume role in the Rams passing attack.

---

Not only are those two fantasy superstars at the top of the salary structure, but the reigning league MVP is in this matchup as well. Matthew Stafford did rely heavily on Nacua but also spread the ball around to other options on his way to 52 touchdown passes and nine interceptions across 20 games, while averaging 282 passing yards per contest.

Last season, Stafford lit up the 49ers for seven touchdown passes and 669 yards in their two meetings, earning 29.6 and 26.9 DraftKings points. He was consistently excellent all year long and has the highest ceiling projection in Koerner’s projections, ahead of both Nacua and McCaffrey.

Since Puka and CMC have both been dealing with injuries, there’s definitely an argument that Stafford is the safest play to build around, especially since he’s cheaper than both those stars. He has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection in Koerner’s rankings and the third-highest in THE BLITZ. If you have Nacua as your Captain pick, stacking him with Stafford is an expensive option but brings a very high ceiling. If you’re playing CMC as Captain, Stafford is a good way to cover the whole Rams passing game in a FLEX spot.

On the other side of the matchup, Brock Purdy has shown the potential to put together excellent performances as well, although he hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Stafford. He did average over 20 DraftKings points per game last season when available, but he missed both matchups against the Rams.

Since Purdy will be facing the Rams’ newly renovated pass rush with Myles Garrett in the mix, he will likely be under heavy pressure most of the game and is a high-risk play even though he does bring upside as he works with an updated receiving group (discussed below).

The other major fantasy stud to consider building around is Kyren Williams of the Rams, who will be back in a lead role in the Rams’ backfield. He averaged 16.3 DraftKings points per game last year while scoring 17 touchdowns. Williams had one of his biggest games of the year in the Rams’ win in San Francisco, racking up 32.1 DraftKings points with a very CMC-like performance as a receiver. He followed that up with two more touchdowns and 22.4 DraftKings points in the rematch as well.

Williams didn’t play this preseason, but the team is expected to mix in Blake Corum ($4,600) a little more this season to keep Williams fresh. However, since Williams is still the preferred option on passing downs and in scoring situations, he is a great option to consider as a FLEX play or even as a Captain if you think he’ll end up getting the scores against San Francisco.

According to our NFL DFS sims, CMC has the highest optimal lineup percentage in the Captain pick spot, and his projected ownership is lagging significantly behind his optimal lineup results. He has the top Optimal vs. Projected Ownership% rating, just barely ahead of Kyren Williams in the Captain spot, before a significant dropoff to the rest of the options. Puka is projected to be the most popular Captain play, but CMC is in more optimal lineups in our sims.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks