The NFL kicks off the 2026 season with a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. The Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks will host the New England Patriots to kick off the new season as both teams try to avoid any Super Bowl hangover and get back for another chance at the title. Both teams have made significant offseason changes, and the Seahawks are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points for this matchup.
In the Super Bowl, Seattle won convincingly, 29-13, but both teams attempted to upgrade in the offseason, so this matchup will likely play out differently. The Seahawks have a very different backfield, while the Patriots overhauled their wide receivers. With some new players in the mix, will the outcome still be the same?
Can the Seahawks celebrate their Super Bowl win and start their title defense with a win, or can the Patriots get a little revenge and show that their run to the Super Bowl was no fluke? Let’s take a look at the matchups as we dive into all the top DFS targets for Wednesday Night Football.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The biggest fantasy stud in this matchup is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who emerged as a fantasy star last season with a breakout performance. JSN has the highest median and floor projections in the projections from both Koerner and THE BLITZ. He’s a very expensive play to build around, but he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a FLEX spot, indicating that he brings enough upside to be worth considering building around.
Last year was his third season in the NFL, and Smith-Njigba stepped up as one of the most reliable fantasy producers in football. He racked up 1,793 receiving yards and scored 10 touchdowns in the regular season and added 199 more yards with two touchdowns in the playoffs.
In his 20 games (regular season and playoffs), he averaged an impressive 22.0 DraftKings points per game. He produced 105.5 yards per game during the regular season and averaged 7.0 receptions per contest. In the Super Bowl, though, he was held to just four catches for 27 yards on 10 targets.
Part of Smith-Njigba’s quiet Super Bowl was due to the outstanding coverage from Christian Gonzalez, who became the highest-paid CB in the NFL earlier this week. Gonzalez could travel with JSN on Wednesday night, or the Patriots could rely on their overall coverage structure to slow him down. Whoever wins this one-on-one battle will likely go a long way to determining the outcome of the game.
Smith-Njigba had a massive 56.2% target share last season, and the Seahawks bring back much of the same pass-catching group, setting him up for another huge workload and giving him a high ceiling even in such a tough matchup.
JSN’s breakout was a huge boost to the fantasy numbers of his QB, Sam Darnold. If you think JSN is going to lead the way for Seattle to pick up a dominant win this week, stacking him with Darnold is a strong play to consider.
Darnold had his ups and downs through the season, but he finished with 25 touchdowns and over 4,000 passing yards for an average of 15.4 DraftKings points per game during the regular season. He has a lower floor projection than many of the other elite options, but he also has the third-highest median and ceiling projections on the slate with plenty of JSN correlation to consider.
On the other side of the QB matchup, Drake Maye has the highest ceiling projection of all players in Koerner’s projections and the second-highest across the board in THE BLITZ projections. Last year, Maye averaged 21.5 DraftKings points per game in the regular season, racking up 4,394 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, and four rushing scores.
Maye did struggle for much of the Super Bowl, but he finished with 20.5 DraftKings points and a pair of touchdowns while trying to help the Patriots rally. If New England plays from behind, Maye could air it out even more, and he brings a very high ceiling as a result, even in a tough matchup against Seattle’s defense.
In this year’s version of the Patriots’ offense, he’ll have a new top target in A.J. Brown, who has the fourth-highest median and ceiling projections in Koerner’s projections for this week. Brown is coming off an inconsistent season in Philadelphia and did not play at all in the preseason. However, the established veteran looked very strong in training camp and has shown the ability to be a top receiver in the NFL when healthy and engaged.
Brown is a much less proven commodity than JSN in this matchup, and he’s also in a tough matchup against Seattle’s strong secondary. He does bring undeniable upside, though, and he could be a good tournament differentiator if he delivers on this boom-or-bust upside in his Patriots debut.
One other player who deserves consideration in this “stud” section for this kickoff contest is Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who could be lined up for a big boost in workload with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) ruled out.
Stevenson had a few massive games last year after some early-season fumble troubles and proved he could be a dual-threat producer with 820 rushing yards and 471 receiving yards in his 18 games in the regular season and playoffs. He had a touchdown in the Super Bowl on his way to 17.3 DraftKings points and averaged 13.2 DraftKings points per game for the season.
Due to his secure role in this matchup without Henderson, Stevenson brings a high floor and plenty of touchdown-dependent upside. In Koerner’s projections, Stevenson has the second-highest floor projection on the entire slate behind only JSN, and he has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at a FLEX spot behind only JSN and Maye.
If you’re looking for tournament leverage, the projected ownership indicates both Stevenson and Brown will be the lower-owned stud options, with Smith-Njigba and Maye the chalkiest plays at Captain and FLEX.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
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