DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Richmond: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Cook Out 400

Richmond Raceway plays host to the third-to-last race of the regular season, with 400 laps taking place at the 0.75-mile, high-wear track.

Teams and drivers had the final split-group practice session of the year, so merging the two groups is always a fun task that practice FLAGS does really well.

In addition to practice, we of course have track history, as well as a plethora of other shorter flat tracks that the series has run at, especially recently, but Richmond is unique with its massive tire falloff.

Put it all together and Saturday’s DFS slate should be an interesting one, where dominators will feature thanks to the 400 laps.

Be sure to check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway.

Cook Out 400 Cash Game Picks

Ryan Blaney ($11,000): Much has been made of Blaney’s Richmond struggles, but those were earlier in his career. Last year he finished third and led 39 laps, and this year he starts on the pole after a dominant performance in practice where he was the clear top car by FLAGS.

There may be opportunity to fade him in tournaments if you think his old Richmond form creeps in, but this to me is a new Blaney, and he’s been a top driver at almost every short-flat track this year.

By starting on the pole and having the best practice car, he’s the near-lock to lead the early laps.

Austin Cindric ($7000): The driver who was No. 1 in FLAGS in the race at Richmond last year starts 22nd, ranks fourth in practice FLAGS, and is only $7k.

Austin Cindric is an absolute cash-game must, and that’s really all I need to write about him here.

Cook Out 400 Tournament Picks

Dominators: Here are my top dominators by likelihood of dominating:

1. Ryan Blaney
   
   (gap to show tier)
   
2. Ty Gibbs
3. Christopher Bell
4. Joey Logano
5. Chase Briscoe
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Josh Berry
8. William Byron

Blaney is the clear top dog in my dominator list, but things are actually pretty muddled after him. Gibbs and Briscoe start close to the front, but they don’t have great track history. Byron also starts inside the first three rows, but HMS has been a mess all year, especially on short-flat tracks. Bell, Logano, and Hamlin were the early-week favorites, but they all qualified outside the front three rows. And Josh Berry is a short-flat specialist who starts third, but his equipment is a bit inferior.

Joey Logano ($10,500): Logano looks strong this weekend, and I definitely don’t mind if you want to use him in cash games, but he has to be in some of your tournament lineups for sure.

Logano ranked first when you average the four Richmond-oriented practice metrics, leaving off peak speed since we get long runs here with massive tire falloff.

Logano’s average race FLAGS at Richmond is 4.3 over the last three races here, and he’s been a major factor at all the short-flat tracks this year. There’s a good shot he ends up in victory lane when all is said and done.

Zane Smith ($5800): Smith starts 24th, but he practiced well, ranking 10th in practice FLAGS. He’s run three career Cup Series races at Richmond, ranking 33rd, then 21st, then 11th in race FLAGS with big leaps forward each race.

I expect him to be a contender for a top-10 finish, and even if he doesn’t get it, a 12th place or so is going to be super helpful at a sub-$6k salary knowing we need some heavy hitters in our lineups with so many dominator points up for grabs.

The other thing I like about Smith is his other practice metrics. He ranked positively in tire degradation (DG), long run speed (LONG), and consistency (CON), placing him eighth when you average the rank-based versions of FLAGS, LONG, DEG, and CON together.

Cook Out 400 Paul Menard Pick of the Week

The PMPOTW has had a break the last few weeks, but I have a good one this week on a guy the model doesn’t love as much as I personally do.

Chris Buescher ($7900) has some really intriguing practice metrics, and I want to be overweight on him despite my model saying to go underweight on him.

Buescher ranks fifth in the practice composite (average of FLAGS, LONG, DEG, CON), and a lot of that was based off elite consistency and comparatively low tire degradation, two things that’ll really help at a track like Richmond with huge tire falloff.

He doesn’t have elite single-lap speed, evidenced by his 19th-place starting spot despite an advantageous qualifying draw and only a 28th percentile PEAK practice speed, but he should move forward on the long run, and Richmond is a long-run track that tends to brings out very few cautions.

Oh, and Buescher did win here in 2023, so he knows what it takes to get around this place.

Pictured: Austin Cindric
Photo credit: Jordan Godfree, Imagn