The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale (L) ($10,800) Atlanta Braves (-161) at New York Mets
Note: Be sure to monitor the weather for this game.
Once again, we have a pitching slate with a clear standout at the top, who leads everyone else at the position by a wide margin in median and ceiling projections. This time it’s Chris Sale, who I would describe as “appropriately priced” at $10,800, $1,000 more than any other starter tonight.
Sale has shown no signs of slowing down, with his 2 starts since the All-Star break combining for 17 strikeouts over 13 innings with just 3 runs allowed. Each of those outings was good for about 30 DraftKings points, and he’s averaging a healthy 22.7 on DraftKings this season, thanks to his almost 30% strikeout rate and 2.17 ERA.
On paper, the Mets are a slightly above-average team against left-handed pitching, with a lower-than-average strikeout rate. The big news for New York is the injury to Juan Soto, though. Soto has been their best overall hitter this season, and while he’s on the wrong side of his platoon splits against southpaws, his wRC+ against lefties is 128, 30 points higher than the team’s mark.
That means the Mets are now a slightly plus-matchup for left-handed pitching, and they have the lowest team total on the slate at just 3.4 runs. With a reasonably priced top stack, it’s not all that difficult to afford Sale, so I’m anticipating pretty high ownership, but he’s probably worth it tonight (if the weather doesn’t cancel the game).
MLB DFS Value Pick
Reid Detmers (L) $8,100 Los Angeles Angels (-110) vs. Houston Astros
Reid Detmers is the cheaper of the 2 pitchers on top of our Pts/Sal projections tonight by $500, which makes him the better option of the two in lineups looking to play Sale. He’s taking on an Astros team that is about 10% worse against left-handed pitching, largely thanks to the best hitter in baseball, Yordan Álvarez, being on the wrong side of his platoon splits by 74 points of wRC+.
Outside of Alvarez – who would rank 17th in wRC+ in all of baseball if he only got to hit against lefties – the Houston lineup is fairly lackluster. Detmers brings a 27.6% strikeout rate into the contest, giving him plenty of upside, and his 4.05 ERA is solid. More importantly, his underlying metrics are all about a half run better, so he’s underpriced based on his “true skill.”
Detmers also seems to be rejuvenated since the break, with a pair of 19+ point performances on DraftKings after getting knocked around a bit earlier in the month. He’s not without risk tonight, but the likeliest outcome is a solid performance with enough salary left over to roster Sale and some upside bats.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Gerritt Cole (R) $9,800 New York Yankees (-135) at Chicago White Sox
Cole trails only Sale in median and ceiling projection and comes as a slightly better Pts/Sal option thanks to the $1,000 discount. After some struggles early in his return from injury, he’s turned in 4 straight starts with a positive Plus/Minus. Tonight, he’s taking on a White Sox team that’s been above average against right-handed pitching but also strikes out at a high rate. That gives him a somewhat wide range of outcomes, making him an excellent tournament pivot from Sale.
Justin Wrobleski (L) ($8,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) vs. Seattle Mariners
Wrobleski has a 2.62 ERA but a 4.08 xERA and 4.21 SIERA, making him a potentially scary option from a regression standpoint. However, he’s taking on a Mariners team whose wRC+ is 15 points lower when facing lefties, mitigating that concern a bit tonight. The Dodgers also rank 4th in defensive WAR on the year, so at this point his ERA might be somewhat sticky. Our projections have him as one of the better Pts/Sal options on the slate, with considerably lower projected ownership than the other pitchers we’ve mentioned so far.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Expect to see the Red Sox in this section for the duration of their series in Sacramento against the A’s, thanks to the elite hitting park factors that are pushing up Boston’s team totals. It didn’t quite work out yesterday, with Boston scoring just 4 runs, but their 5.3-run team total tonight trails only the Dodgers – who cost almost $5,000 more for the equivalent stack.
Boston always was risky yesterday, as they’re a bottom-3 team against right-handed pitching. The good news tonight is they’re facing lefty Gage Jump ($7,100). Boston’s extreme platoon splits have them as a top-3 team against lefties, with a total swing of 28% by wRC+ compared to matchups with righties.
Jump isn’t bad, with a 4.22 ERA and lower underlying numbers (largely thanks to his brutal home park). It’s not really about him, though, so much as an elite team against southpaws facing one in an elite hitter’s park – all while reasonably priced. I’m going back to the well with the Sox tonight.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jonah Heim C ($3,000) Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox (Jake Bennett)
Speaking of the game in Sacramento, Boston is also going with a left-handed pitcher. That would be Jake Bennett($7,800), a rookie second-round pick with a 2.58 ERA through 10 big-league starts. That’s obviously solid, but he’s a low-strikeout pitcher in a tough park tonight.
The A’s lack the wild platoon splits of Boston, with a roughly average wRC+ against both left- and right-handed pitching. However, backup catcher Jonah Heim smashes lefties, as we see in PlateIQ:
While the small sample size in 2026 is worth noting, his wRC+ throughout his career is 35 points higher than when facing righties, so it’s fairly sticky. He’s also drastically underpriced for the #3 spot in the A’s projected lineup and fits perfectly around Boston stacks, making him an easy option at catcher.
Steven Kwan OF ($3,100) Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds (Chase Petty)
Kwan is another player who is underpriced for his lineup spot/team total. He’s set to lead off for the Guardians in Cincinnati, where they have a solid 4.9-run total as they take on the Reds’ Petty. Petty may be used as either a starter or an opener tonight, but he has a 6.95 ERA through 33.2 career MLB innings.
Kwan hasn’t been great this year, hitting just .248 with almost no power, but all he needs to do to pay off his salary is get on base a couple of times and score a run. He’s got a better shot of doing that in Cincinnati with a solid park factor and even better hitting weather than he would at home, making him an easy option to save salary.
Jake Croneworth 2B ($2,700) San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Michael Lorenzen)
Our final “too cheap for the situation” player is Cronenworth, who comes into the game with a miserable .217 batting average – but is hitting second on a team implied for more than 5 runs.
Most of that implied total is due to the pitching matchup, as Lorenzen ($5,500) has an ERA in the mid-6.00s this season. Some of that is due to home games at Coors Field, while this one is in San Diego, but Lorenzen’s road ERA is still on the wrong side of 5.00.
Cronenworth isn’t going to win you any tournaments, but he might free up the salary for some players who will while providing a few points, which sometimes is enough.
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Pictured: Reid Detmers
Photo Credit: Imagn
