The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cristopher Sanchez (L) $9,700 Philadelphia Phillies (-148) vs. San Francisco Giants
There are two standout pitching options at the top of the slate, with lefties Cristopher Sanchez and Tarik Skubal ($10,700) clearly a cut above the rest. We’re currently projecting similar ownership for both aces, so the decision comes down to whether Skubal can do enough to justify the additional $1,000 in salary over Sanchez.
Both have similar numbers this season, with Sanchez featuring ERA and xERA marks about 0.2 higher than Skubal’s. However, Sanchez has better swinging-strike and strikeout rates, which more than balances that out for DFS. Every strikeout is worth one fewer run allowed, and we have Sanchez’s K prediction about a full run above Skubal’s.
The real difference, though, is the matchup. Skubal is facing a Braves team that ranks top-five in wRC+ against lefties with a 119 mark, while the Giants are below average with a 93 wRC+ against southpaws. That means they’re 26% worse in terms of run production. Plus, the weather in Philly is slightly better for pitchers than the weather in Atlanta tonight.
For that reason, I’m riding with our projections that have Sanchez as the top option on the slate in median and ceiling projection, shortly ahead of Skubal. Obviously, he’s also got a lead in Pts/Sal over Skubal given the price tag, making him the better play in all contest types so long as ownership remains close.
MLB DFS Value Pick
David Peterson (L) $6,200 New York Mets (-164) vs. Washington Nationals
David Peterson has virtually identical Vegas data to Sanchez tonight, as a slightly heavier favorite whose opponent is implied for just 0.1 additional runs. That stands out immensely, given that he’s $3,500 cheaper, making him the clear leader in Pts/Sal projection.
Peterson has struggled this season, with an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00. However, he’s been much better in the past and has FIP, xFIP, and SIERA marks all at 4.00 or lower. That suggests he’s mostly been unlucky – plus two of his four starts have been against top-three offenses against lefties. After those two predictably poor outings, he was bounced to the bullpen for a couple of appearances, where he allowed just one run over seven combined innings.
Now he draws an interesting matchup with the Nationals. They’ve hit lefties well (115 wRC+) but also struck out a ton, with their 25.8% rate top-five in the league. That makes them a very boom-or-bust opponent, leading to a wide range of outcomes for Peterson tonight. If he can miss some bats, he should easily outperform his salary, but he could also get blown up early.
The fact that the market is firmly in his/the Mets’ favor makes me somewhat more confident, but I’m still not rostering him in cash games. I prefer spending up for safer options, even with Peterson’s slate-leading Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Brandon Williamson (L) $6,700 Cincinnati Reds (-151) vs. Colorado Rockies
Brandon Williamson has a 5.40 ERA through five starts this season, though he finished last year at 3.77. His true ability is likely somewhere in between those marks. However, the real appeal for him tonight is the matchup. He’s facing the Rockies outside of Coors Field. They have a 64 wRC+ against lefties, somehow not the worst mark in the league, and a 28.3% strikeout rate. While Great American Ballpark isn’t exactly a pitcher’s park, it’s still a huge downgrade for Rockies bats relative to home games, so Williamson has a decent chance at minimal salary and ownership.
Cade Cavali (R) $7,200 Washington Nationals (+138) at New York Mets
With the talent in their lineup, it doesn’t feel like the Mets are a great matchup for opposing pitchers. The numbers disagree, though, with New York coming into the game dead last in wRC+ against righties. Cavali has been solid this year, with a 4.01 ERA, better ERA indicators, and a 24% strikeout rate. If the Mets continue to struggle, Cavali could easily outperform his price tag, so I’ll sprinkle a bit of him in my lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds have a slate-leading 5.3-run total tonight, and their top five hitters cost less than $3,700 per hitter. I could probably end this section there, as that’s enough information to realize you should be stacking them tonight.
If you aren’t quite convinced, let me point out that they’re facing Tomiyuki Sugano ($6,800), who has a 3.42 ERA but an xERA over 6.00 on the season (despite pitching at Coors Field) and a sub-10% swinging-strike rate. Given that Great American Ball Park is the best home-run park in baseball, we should expect some major regression for Sugano.
We’ve also got a solid breeze blowing out to right field in the forecast, which adds another 6.2% boost to the expected home runs. Since that number factors in the stadium’s average amount, we should see plenty of dingers tonight.
The field is obviously going to be heavily on the Reds, so playing with alternate stacks makes sense for GPPs, but fading them is probably a mistake.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Gary Sanchez C ($3,300) Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Eduardo Rodriguez)
Gary Sanchez isn’t the player he was during his Yankees heyday, but the slugging catcher still does one thing exceptionally well: hit lefties. This season, he’s hitting .529 with a 1.059 OPS against southpaws through his first 21 plate appearances.
PlateIQ gives us a sample size dating back to last season for his numbers against left-handed pitching:
Still a small sample, but pretty great numbers overall. The lefty in question tonight is Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,700), who has a 2.98 ERA that’s begging for regression with his SIERA, FIP, and xERA all right around 5.00. Let’s see if Sanchez can’t contribute to some of that tonight.
Kevin McGonigle 3B/SS ($4,900) Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (JR Ritchie)
The Tigers are back on the better side of their platoon splits against the right-handed JR Ritchie ($8,500), the Braves’ top prospect who is making just his second MLB start tonight. He gets to face another top prospect in Kevin McGonigle, who has lived up to his billing as one of the game’s future stars through his first 29 games.
McGonigle is hitting .327 with a .936 OPS, and his xWOBA is actually slightly higher than his actual wOBA. Against righties specifically, he’s batting .345. His multi-position eligibility makes him easy to fit around any stack of your choice, and he’s hitting leadoff for a Tigers team implied for 4.5 runs. He checks all the boxes and is a big part of my plans tonight.
Austin Riley 3B ($3,900) Atlanta Braves vs. Detroit Tigers (Tarik Skubal)
With ownership at pitcher likely to be heavily dominated by Sanchez and Skubal, the “correct” play in large-field GPPs is to roster at least one hitter against whichever of those pitchers you fade (assuming your lineup doesn’t feature both). Given that I prefer Sanchez to Skubal, that means finding some value on the Braves.
Truthfully, it’s not easy, since Atlanta is a fairly lefty-heavy lineup. Austin Riley bats righty, though, and is hitting .361 this season against southpaws. At his price point, he’s worth the risk, as any production from him not only boosts your lineup but takes away from lineups with Skubal.
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Pictured: Cristopher Sanchez
Photo Credit: Imagn
