The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Nolan McLean (R) $8,500 New York Mets (-185) vs. Minnesota Twins
This is officially Nolan McLean’s rookie season, but the 24-year-old appeared in eight games last season and finished with a 2.06 ERA and strikeout rate over 30%. His dominance has continued into 2026, with a 2.28 ERA and even higher strikeout rate, plus ERA indicators that suggest he’s somehow even better than that.
The crux of the argument for him tonight is that there aren’t really any other elite options, and DraftKings’ pricing algorithm is still a bit behind in recognizing him as an elite pitcher. Vegas is on board, giving the Twins just a 3.3-run implied total and making the Mets solid favorites. Some of that might also be due to the weather, with sub-50 temperatures that should cut down on scoring a bit.
Either way, McLean has the highest median and ceiling projections, along with the lead in Pts/Sal, making him hard to fade at $8,500. While his ownership projections are also tops on the slate, I’d rather find a way to be unique elsewhere in my lineup than fade what is probably the best play on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jacob Lopez (L) $6,900 Athletics (+145) at Seattle Mariners
With McLean being both the best high-end and best value option, there are a few different directions we could go for a value pick. My favorite is Jacob Lopez, who has pretty rough numbers on the season but is perhaps due for some regression his way.
Lopez comes into the game with an ERA of 6.38 through four starts. However, his xERA is a much better 4.01. A big part of that discrepancy is his home ballpark in Sacramento, which is nearly as bad as Coors Field for pitchers overall, especially pitchers like Lopez, who have a fairly high fly-ball rate and don’t strike out a ton of bats.
Tonight, he travels to Seattle. T-Mobile Park is the complete opposite end of the spectrum, cutting overall scoring by eight percent and home runs by five percent over the past three seasons combined. That’s a net drop of nearly 20% to scoring relative to home games for Lopez.
On the matchup side, Seattle is a middling overall unit with a high strikeout rate, which offers a slight boost to the upside for Lopez. They additionally have just a 62 wRC+ against southpaws this season, which is an encouraging sign for Lopez but across a relatively small sample size. Either way, we don’t need a ton at his price tag, so he’s probably worth the risk.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Luis Castillo (R) $9,100 Seattle Mariners (-172) vs. Athletics
Castillo is having a down year (to put it mildly) with a 5.40 ERA and 19.3% strikeout rate through his first four starts. However, much of the same logic that applies to Lopez applies here too. He’s facing an offense that normally hits in a much better environment while pitching in a park where he had a 2.61 ERA last season. He’s a risky option based on his performance so far this season, but I expect it to turn around at some point and would like to have him at low ownership when it does.
Randy Vasquez (R) $7,000 San Diego Padres (-145) at Colorado Rockies
The fact that one of the league’s worst offenses (the Rockies) plays in the best hitter’s park (Coors Field) makes for an interesting decision point any time they’re at home. I’m leaning toward rostering Vasquez at his price tag, though, since he has a relatively low fly-ball rate and a 27.8% strikeout rate so far this season. The Park Factor at Coors Field doesn’t matter when the ball is on the ground (or in the catcher’s glove), and he brings a 2.49 ERA into the contest with the profile of a pitcher who can succeed at Coors.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The other end of the Coors Field decision is far less of a conundrum, as visiting teams bring their (typically) far superior offenses to a great hitter’s park, where they usually face below-average pitching.
That’s true today, with the Padres coming into the game with roughly league-average offensive numbers (and home games in a pitcher-friendly park). They’re facing a mixed bag of pitchers from the Rockies, with Brennan Bernardino likely to open, followed by Chase Dollander ($5,600).
Dollander has a 3.32 ERA this season, but four of his five appearances have been on the road. I expect him to regress closer to the 6.52 ERA he finished 2025 with once his home/road appearances even out a bit more.
While the Padres are expensive, the value at pitching makes it fairly easy to fit them, especially if you stack them with Vasquez, which also bakes in a bit of correlation between their production and his four-point win bonus.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Seiya Suzuki OF ($4,300) Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Jesus Luzardo)
We have pretty ridiculous weather in Chicago tonight, with Weather Edge showing a 17% boost to overall scoring and more than a 40%(!) boost to home runs in the Windy City. Those numbers are over a 100+ game sample size, so they should be fairly predictive. We also have a lefty-on-lefty pitching matchup, which means hitters with strong southpaw splits are in an especially good spot.
I used PlateIQ to hunt for the best options, and Seiya Suzuki immediately stood out:
At just $4,300, that’s a borderline must-play for me tonight.
Nathan Lukes OF ($2,600) Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz)
For the second day in a row, the Blue Jays have a solid team total and a very cheap bat at the top of their lineup. This time it’s Nathan Lukes, who is hitting just .227 on the season but has a chance to turn it around against the Angels’ Jack Kochanowicz ($7,700).
Kochanowicz has been lucky this year, with a 3.47 ERA but an xERA over five. Toronto is implied for nearly five runs themselves, and at his price point, if Lukes scores even one of them, he’s a solid option. Plus, he fits neatly around the Padres stack both in terms of salary and position, which is the real appeal today. He’s one of the top hitters in Pts/Sal projection on the slate.
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B ($3,700) Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles (Shane Baz)
We’ve got solid hitting weather again in Kansas City, with conditions that boost home runs almost 20% per Weather Edge. That’s a big boost to the Royals in general, whose 5.1-run implied total is the best on the slate outside of Coors Field.
Pasquantino is a boom-or-bust power hitter with a premium (#3) spot in the lineup behind two strong hitters likely to be on base. His high strikeout rate means he could end up not giving you anything, but the upside when everything goes right is worth far more than the $3,700 he costs tonight.
He’s the highest-rated first baseman in our Tournament Model.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.
Pictured: Nolan McLean
Photo Credit: Imagn
