DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Kansas: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the AdventHealth 400

Kansas Speedway plays host to the second race of the season where the NASCAR Cup Series will use the intermediate package.

The first race took place just over a month ago at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where Denny Hamlin led the most laps and took home a stage win and the race win while topping all drivers in race FLAGS.

That’s noteworthy, because not only is it the only race so far in the intermediate package, but Las Vegas has historically been Kansas’ best comparable track.

In addition to the Las Vegas race FLAGS, we also of course have Kansas practice FLAGS to look at for the 267-lap race.

At 267 laps, Kansas is typically a 1-2 dominator race, but some Kansas races have gotten wild in the Next Gen era and produced three dominators.

To see the top dominators, check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway.

AdventHealth 400 Cash Game Picks

Christopher Bell ($10,700): There were three drivers essentially tied at the top coming into the weekend, but after practice, it’s pretty clear that Christopher Bell is at the top of my list.

Bell topped practice FLAGS and long-run pace, and he had 80th percentile or better numbers in tire degradation and consistency as well.

To me, he’s the car to beat this weekend.

Alex Bowman ($7600): Bowman made it through Bristol without any vertigo recurrence, and while he didn’t race well, I expect him to be better this weekend.

He starts 34th after a terrible qualifying spot where he was the second car out when the track conditions were at its worst, so the 34th-place starting spot is definitely not indicative of his speed.

Bowman ranked inside the top 10 in FLAGS, and he was well-above average in every metric except consistency, which we should expect given they was his first laps in the car on the intermediate package this year.

John Hunter Nemechek ($6000): If my cash picks look like a repeat of last week, well, they are almost a perfect match. Just swap Blaney last week for Bell this week.

But JHN is one of the holdovers from last week, and like Bristol, Kansas has been a strong track for him with finishes of 13th and 10th in this very race each of the last two years.

Nemechek also finished 21st at Vegas earlier this year while running 23rd in FLAGS in that race. That’s not amazing, but it’s a step up from his 31st-place starting spot.

But more importantly this weekend, the Legacy Motor Club driver practiced really well, ranking in the top half of the field in all four major metrics (FLAGS, LONG, DEG, CON).

AdventHealth 400 Tournament Picks

Dominators: Like I said, we’ll usually want 1-2 dominators, and sometimes three. Here are my top dominators by likelihood of dominating:

1. Tyler Reddick
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Christopher Bell
4. Kyle Larson
5. Ty Gibbs

William Byron ($10,000): I didn’t list Byron in my dominator list above because the top five are such a clear top five by my model, then there’s a host of six drivers that essentially fall under a blanket for the next most likely dominators.

Of that group, I really like Byron to maybe surprise.

In the graph above, it’s pretty clear Byron was matching Bell’s speed from about lap 22 to the end. Byron just didn’t fire off well, which is reflected in his peak speed being the lowest among the top 10 in practice FLAGS.

Temperatures should be nearly 20 degrees hotter in the race than in practice, which should in theory increase tire wear a bit more, so I love a driver that has low degradation compared to the field.

How to play RFK: Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing is a team I was high on coming into the weekend, and on the Running Hot podcast on Wednesday, I talked about how I bet all three drivers to finish as the top Ford driver in the race.

Well, after practice I don’t quite feel the same, but it’s a mixed bag.

Chris Buescher was clearly among the elite, and like Byron, he’s in the group of outside dominators. But he has one of the cheapest price tags of that group, along with Carson Hocevar, so he’s a solid GPP option.

Ryan Preece, on the other hand, was essentially 0.3 to 0.4 seconds per lap slower than Buescher for the whole practice run.

But Brad Keselowski is interesting. He really came on late in this very race last year before blowing a tire while chasing down Chase Elliott for the lead.

His curve above, in yellow, shows that he might have elite long-run speed, as he ends up faster than Buescher after around lap 20.

Keselowksi is absolutely in play in tournaments, especially starting 21st. I think my model is too low on his Perfect% and would suggest bumping up his projections manually if you’re using the optimizer.

Noah Gragson ($5400): I considered throwing Gragson in cash games, but his degradation scared me off a bit. That said, if we get a restart with about 15-20 laps to go, that’s right around his sweet spot.

In terms of practice FLAGS, Gragson ranked 11th, which is a huge difference from his starting spot of 28.

Last year at Vegas and Kansas, Gragson had a 16.7 average finish in his three non-DNF races. He has that potential this weekend based off his practice speeds.

AdventHealth 400 Paul Menard Pick of the Week

It’s been a few weeks since I’ve done one of these, but I’ll go with Corey Heim ($6900) as this week’s PMPOTW.

Heim is running part time for 23XI Racing, and his teammates Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace were two of the fastest cars in practice. And Heim is no slouch himself, as the defending Truck Series champion with maybe the most dominant championship run in that series’ history.

Heim also practiced well, ranking 13th and 15th in rank-based and speed-based practice FLAGS, respectively.

Heim finished 13th in this race last year and 22nd two years ago when he was running for the inferior Legacy Motor Club. In both cases, just like this weekend, it comes as a part-time deal.

My model has him optimal around 17%, but to get some leverage I’m fine going up to around 20% or even a touch higher.

Pictured: Christopher Bell
Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez