Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10 million in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
American Express One and Done Picks are now live, and this is another early-season week that looks simple until you take a step back and consider the bigger picture.
The American Express has a total prize purse of $9.2 million, with $1.58 million going to first place. That puts it firmly in the second tier of PGA Tour purses. In Golf One and Done pools, that matters because you are not just trying to pick a golfer who can win this week. You are choosing which golfer you are willing to give up for the rest of the season.
American Express One and Done Picks: Don’t Take the Bait
We saw this exact setup last week, and we warned about it.
The Sony Open was a lower-purse event, and the mistake was burning top-tier golfers simply because the odds and course history looked good.
Despite that warning, Russell Henley became the most popular pick in several large pools, including 11% picked in the Golf One and Done World Championship. He finished tied for 19th.
That mattered because Henley is a golfer PoolGenius ranks inside the top 10 in overall season-long value. A large portion of the field spent a premium asset on a tournament that ranked 26th in purse size.
Why the Same Trap Exists This Week
The same bait is sitting out there again this week.
Scottie Scheffler is in the field, along with several other golfers ranked inside the top 10. The odds board looks attractive, the field is deep, and it is easy to convince yourself that this is a fine spot to use one of your better options.
But the American Express is still a second-tier purse event. If you burn a top-end golfer here, you are making that decision before the schedule reaches its most valuable weeks.
How to Know Which Golfers to Use or Save
In a normal week, most people talk themselves into one of the outright favorites and move on. In Golf One and Done pools, that approach is how you end up short on options when the money spikes later in the season.
What you really need is context.
- How big is your pool?
- Is it top-heavy, or does it pay down the standings?
- How many total events are included?
- Are there segment prizes or bonuses?
Those details completely change what the best pick looks like in any given week.
That is why the use vs. save decision is so tricky early on. You have limited information about how the season will unfold, but you are already spending one-time assets. On weeks like this, the wrong decision can quietly hurt you months down the road.
Answer That Question With the One and Done Picks Tool
PoolGenius built a Golf One and Done Picks Optimizer to make the recurring use versus save question easier to answer.
The tool pulls the key inputs into one place, then turns them into weekly pick grades and a season-long plan tailored to your specific pool setup.
It is not just a list of good golfers. It is designed to help maximize expected value by accounting for factors like:
- Your pool size and scoring setup
- Purse size and future value savings
- Win odds, recent form indicators, strokes gained trends, and course fit
- Projected pick popularity to help identify chalk and leverage
You can try it out ahead of the American Express for free.
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What the Tool Shows for American Express One and Done Picks
First off, you can see it for yourself with the free trial. No credit card required.
The key thing to understand is that the tool is not one-size-fits-all. Your results change based on your pool settings.
If your pool is small, conservative picks tend to grade better. If your pool is large, leverage and popularity matter more. If your pool includes fewer total events, the save logic shifts. Even managing multiple entries can change how you approach early-season tournaments.
That is the point.
The American Express pick that is optimal for one person can be a mistake for someone else, even if they are looking at the same odds board. The tool exists to give you that context before you lock in a pick.
American Express Golf One and Done Pick Advice
With that in mind, for standard One and Done pools that cover roughly 31 events and include more than 100 to 200 players, the general strategy usually looks like this.
Where to start: A smart place to start is saving the very top of the board. Scottie Scheffler, Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, and Robert MacIntyre all look great in terms of win odds. They are also golfers you are very likely to want later when purses jump and one pick carries more leverage.
In a standard season, more than half of the remaining tournaments offer more upside than the American Express. Even if one of those top names is a strong win candidate this week, you still have to ask whether this is the right spot to spend them. In many pool setups, it makes sense to look elsewhere.
Four Alternative Picks to the Top Tier
Sepp Straka is in play. PoolGenius ranks him 21st overall, which puts him closer to the target range for a second-tier purse event. He has solid odds, but his win here last year will drive some popularity.
Si Woo Kim is another reasonable option. He is tied for the third-best odds to win, ranked 21st in PoolGenius golfer rankings, and does not carry the same must-save pressure as the very top names.
Patrick Cantlay sits on the fringe. PoolGenius ranks him 19th overall, and he combines strong win odds with course history, including a fifth-place finish here last year and multiple top 10s at this event over the past decade.
Future value savers. If you want to preserve even more future value, golfers firmly outside the top 25 rankings who are still worth a look include Harry Hall, Jason Day, and Taylor Pendrith.
Get Your Golf One and Done Cheat Sheet Now
PoolGenius is built to make One and Done pools simpler, faster, and more structured.
Enter your pool details, and the optimizer will guide your weekly picks while the season planner shows the downstream impact of using a golfer now versus saving him for later.
You can follow the top grades directly, or use the planner and pick popularity views to decide when to ride chalk and when to pivot for leverage.
The biggest edge is clarity. You can see the value of each week, the value of each golfer, and how your pick fits into the season instead of treating every tournament like it exists in a vacuum.
Grab your free trial today. No credit card required.
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Pictured: Sepp Straka
Photo Credit: Imagn
