NFL Week 17 will feature the final Monday Night Football contest of the year. Unfortunately, it’s not a game with particularly high stakes. The Los Angeles Rams will head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons, and they’re listed as 7.5-point road favorites. The total for this contest sits at 49.5 points.
Los Angeles has had an excellent season, but they will unfortunately be relegated to a Wild Card spot in the NFC. Whoever wins next week’s showdown between the Seahawks and 49ers will win the division and secure the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Rams are still considered one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but their road looks a lot tougher than it did a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the Falcons’ season has been over for weeks. They lost starting QB Michael Penix Jr. to injury, and they’re merely playing out the string. It’s another disappointing season for the Falcons, who will miss the playoffs for the eighth consecutive year.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
With the Rams losing to the Seahawks last week, they don’t have much to play for over the final two games of the season. That said, they need to win their final two games to lock up the No. 5 seed in the NFC. If they lose one of their remaining contests, they’ll dip down to No. 6. The difference between the fifth and sixth seeds doesn’t sound like much, but the No. 5 seed gets a matchup vs. the NFC South winner in round one. That’s a lot friendlier than traveling to Philly to take on the defending champs, which is what awaits the No. 6 seed.
With that in mind, expect the Rams to still take this game seriously. We’ll obviously have to monitor the reports – especially before next week’s outing – but I’m still preparing as though the Rams will use all their key contributors vs. the Falcons.
That starts with Puka Nacua. He’s been the best receiver in fantasy when available this season. He’s averaged 23.8 PPR points per game, which is easily the best mark at the position. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks second at 21.6, while Ja’Marr Chase is a distant third at 19.3.
Nakua hit a bit of a rough patch after returning from an injury in Week 9, but he has put together three straight monster performances. He racked up 38.7 DraftKings points vs. the Cardinals, 30.9 vs. the Lions, and 49.5 vs. the Seahawks, and he tallied at least 11 targets in all three games.
Unsurprisingly, Nacua saw a nice uptick in Week 16 with Davante Adams sidelined. He posted a 35% target share in that outing, which represented a slight increase from his 31% mark for the year. More importantly, he was more involved around the goal line. He had 50% of the team’s end zone targets in that contest, which is an area where Adams has been the more productive player this year. Nacua responded with two receiving touchdowns vs. an excellent Seahawks’ defense, despite notching just six in his previous 13 games.
Adams will be sidelined once again on Monday night, and it’s hard not to love Nacua in that scenario. The Falcons aren’t nearly as intimidating defensively as the Seahawks, allowing the 12th-most PPR points per game to the position.
Nacua leads all players in median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus projection, and he owns the top optimal Captain rate in Sim Labs by a comfortable margin. He’s a very tough fade on this slate.
Bijan Robinson is the Falcons’ top fantasy option. He’s turned in another nice season, racking up 1,250 rushing yards on 5.0 yards per carry while adding 71 receptions and 776 yards through the air. He ranks fourth at running back in PPR points per game, trailing only Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Robinson has done that despite less-than-stellar utilization as a runner. Tyler Allgeier is a major thorn in his side, particularly around the goal line. Robinson has fewer opportunities from inside the five-yard line than Allgeier this season, which is a big reason why Robinson has scored just nine touchdowns. Robinson also had just 46% of the team’s carries last week, which is far less than you’d expect for a superstar running back.
However, Robinson has more than made up for it with his work in the passing game. He’s seen a pretty clear uptick in that department since Penix went down with his injury. He’s had a target share of at least 23% in three of his past four games, including a mark of at least 27% in two straight. That has propelled him to three top-four finishes at the position, including an RB1 finish in Week 13.
Robinson will have his work cut out for him this week vs. the Rams. It’s a brutal matchup, with the Rams allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs this season. Still, as long as Robinson stays as involved in the passing game as he has in recent weeks, he should be able to overcome it. Robinson is grading out as a significantly undervalued Captain option in Sim Labs, with no player boasting a larger gap between optimal rate and projected ownership.
Matthew Stafford is clearly on the back nine of his career, but he’s turned in one of his best seasons in 2025-26. He’s averaging just under 280 passing yards per game to go along with a league-best 40 touchdown passes. He’s also thrown just five picks, and he’s currently favored to take home the first MVP award of his excellent career.
Stafford was brilliant once again last week vs. the Seahawks, finishing with 457 yards and three touchdowns in a tough overtime loss. He’s the rare quarterback who can excel for fantasy purposes despite providing nothing with his legs. He’s fourth at the position in fantasy points per game this season, with the top three all providing much more value as runners.
Stafford should benefit from a bit of additional rest heading into this matchup. The team played on Thursday Night Football in Week 16, so playing on Monday in Week 17 gave him nearly two full weeks between contests. In seven previous contests with at least 10 days of rest as a member of the Rams, Stafford has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.38 (per the Trends tool).
Stafford also has one of the best individual matchups on this slate. He leads all players with a +2.3 Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Rams are currently implied for 28.5 points. He trails only Nacua in terms of projected ceiling and Plus/Minus, while he’s No. 3 in median projection.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Drake London would’ve been an easy stud if this game had taken place two months ago, but a lot has changed since then. London has dealt with an injury, missing four games in the process, and his quarterback went down with an injury. With Penix under center, London has been an absolute target monster. He had a 32% target share across the first 11 weeks this season, which was one of the top marks in the league.
Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins hasn’t been nearly as keen on getting the ball to London. We saw that when Cousins was the starter last season, and the results have been similar this year. He had a 26% target share in his first game alongside Cousins in Week 16, and he finished with a season-low 5.7 DraftKings points.
While a 26% target share is nothing to scoff at, London clearly has less fantasy appeal than he did with Penix under center. Add in a tough matchup vs. the Rams – who are No. 7 in pass defense EPA – and London is a tough sell at $9,800.
Speaking of Cousins, he’s shown signs of life in the past two weeks. He racked up 29.92 DraftKings points vs. the Buccaneers, and he followed that up with 19.58 DraftKings points last week vs. the Cardinals. He tallied six total touchdowns over those outings, including one on the ground.
It remains to be seen if he can do it again vs. the Rams. Cousins has had the Buccaneers’ number over the past two seasons, while the Cardinals are one of the worst defenses in football. The Rams represent a serious step up in weight class, and Cousins has been disappointing throughout most of his tenure with the Falcons. Before his recent hot streak, Cousins had posted a negative Plus/Minus in 14 of 18 starts as the Falcons’ QB.
Cousins is pretty affordable at just $9,000, but his projections are pretty mediocre by quarterback standards. He’s popping in the optimal lineup sims just 6.4% of the time in the Flex spot, and his optimal rate is just 2.1% at Captain.
Kyle Pitts rounds out the Falcons’ passing attack, and unlike London, he has seen a huge boost in production with Cousins under center. He’s posted a 28% target share since Week 12, and he’s racked up at least 15.0 DraftKings points in four straight games. He’s finished as a top-six TE in six straight contests, including back-to-back top-three finishes.
Pitts maintained a solid 26% target share in London’s first game back last week, and he caught a touchdown pass for the second straight game. He’s gotten significantly more expensive in recent weeks, but he could certainly put together another strong showing vs. the Rams.
Kyren Williams is the Rams’ No. 1 running back, though he has operated more in a committee with Blake Corum in recent weeks. Williams has handled just 53% of the team’ rushing attempts since Week 10, and he has just a 5% target share as a receiver. He’s also logged just 44% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line over that time frame, so he’s been far from a bell-cow back.
It hasn’t necessarily stopped Williams from producing – he’s had double-digit fantasy points in seven of his past eight games – but he has become a lot more touchdown dependent. He failed to find the paint against the Seahawks last week and finished with a negative Plus/Minus. It was his third straight game with a negative Plus/Minus when he hasn’t scored.
The good news is that Williams should be able to score in this outing. The Rams are big favorites, and he’s priced between +110 and -105 to score across the various betting sites. He still doesn’t stand out as an elite DFS option, but he’s reasonable at $9,600.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers own the edge in projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, with Harrison Mevis edging out Zane Gonzalez.
- Blake Corum ($4,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) – The difference in salary between Williams and Corum makes the latter the easy choice between the two on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 13.1 DraftKings points in four straight games, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each.
- Colby Parkinson ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Parkinson came crashing back to reality last week, finishing with just 4.1 PPR points after posting five top-11 finishes at TE in the previous six weeks. His targets were down in that contest, but his route participation was a healthy 71%. He’s an excellent bounce-back target vs. the Falcons, despite Atlanta allowing the third-fewest PPR points per game to the position.
- Darnell Mooney ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) – Mooney displayed solid chemistry with Cousins last year, but that hasn’t been the same in 2025-26. He struggled to crack a 15% target share in games without London, and that figure was down to just 6% in London’s first game back. Still, Money is still on the field for nearly every pass play, and he does have some big play potential.
- Tyler Allgeier ($3,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Allgeier remains a threat in the Falcons’ backfield, and he’s always viable to vulture a touchdown. That said, this doesn’t set up as a good game script for the Falcons’ run game.
- Terrance Ferguson ($3,400 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – With Adams out of the lineup last week, the Rams went with a ton of multi-tight end sets vs. the Seahawks. That allowed Ferguson to get on the field a lot more than usual, and he has some pass-catching chops. His 71% route participation was identical to Parkinson’s, and he finished with 12.3 DraftKings points. Ferguson also has a +0.82 correlation with Stafford, making him a sneaky stacking partner.
- David Sills ($2,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Sills has been Atlanta’s No. 3 receiver in recent weeks, though his opportunities plummeted in Week 16. He had just a 36% route participation and 3% target share, and he failed to record a single catch.
- Davis Allen ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Allen also benefited from the Rams going TE-heavy, posting a 43% route participation and 11% target share vs. the Seahawks. He’s the clear No. 3 option among the Rams’ TEs, but he still has some appeal at a cheap price tag.
- Konata Mumpfield ($2,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Mumpfield was the Rams’ No. 2 receiver from a route standpoint last week, though he was only on the field for roughly half of the team’s pass plays. However, he was targeted on 31% of his routes run, good for a 17% target share overall. He also had 26% of the team’s air yards, and he finished with 7.0 DraftKings points. He has some upside.
- Xavier Smith ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Smith saw just two targets last week, but he made the most of them. Specifically, he caught a long ball for 48 yards, so he’s another interesting punt play.
- Charlie Woerner ($1,200 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Woerner is the Falcons’ No. 2 TE, and he’s been a non-factor for most of the year. However, he’s had a route participation of 33% and 47% in back-to-back games, so he’s at least getting on the field a bit more.
Pictured: Puka Nacua
Photo Credit: Imagn
