This piece will identify some of my favorite NFL DFS stacks of the weekend. Be sure to use our Stacking Tool within our Player Models to find the highest projected stacks, the stacks that figure to be chalky, and more. Our Correlation Dashboard is also an excellent resource for finding hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
You can also plug these stacks into our Lineup Builder to hand-build the rest of it, or you can optimize it with our projections. And if you like to create multiple lineups, our Lineup Optimizer allows you to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Week 16 NFL DFS Stacks and Picks
Jared Goff + Jahmyr Gibbs + Jameson Williams + Kenneth Gainwell
- Jared Goff ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
- Jameson Williams ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
- Kenneth Gainwell ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
After a 41-34 loss last week to the Rams, the Lions have put themselves in a position where they basically need to win their next three games to have any chance at making the NFL playoffs. Getting an already aggressive Dan Campbell team playing behind the eight ball makes them the best team to target this week. The Lions lead the slate with a 29.5-point team total and are touchdown favorites over the Steelers.
The Steelers have rattled off back-to-back wins over the Ravens and Dolphins but continue to rank 21st in EPA per play defensively. They are especially poor in their secondary, allowing 242.4 passing yards per game, which is the sixth-highest in the league. That is music to the ears of Lions’ quarterback Jared Goff, who threw for 338 yards and three passing touchdowns against the Rams last week.
Goff is the only quarterback on this 11-game slate that has a double-digit optimal lineup rate at 13.5% in our NFL Sims. Since their Week 8 bye week, Goff ranks fifth in fantasy points per game with 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions. He has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games and is the clear-cut best quarterback available, while still being reasonably priced across the industry.
Goff continues to play significantly better indoors and at home versus on the road, especially this time of the year. On the Ford Field fast track, the Lions are averaging 33.7 points per game this season and have scored at least 24 points in each home game. The Steelers defense, likely playing without seven-time Pro Bowler TJ Watt, is in for a tough test against a desperate Lions offense.
Lions’ running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been the definition of a boom-or-bust fantasy option the entire year. Since the bye week, Gibbs has gone every other week with either exactly three touchdowns or zero. In the games with three touchdowns, Gibbs is averaging an incredible 45.5 DraftKings points per game and when scoring zero touchdowns, his average dips to a whopping 12.5 DraftKings points per game.
If that trend continues, expect a three-touchdown performance from Gibbs against the Steelers this week. He ranks third in fantasy points per game this season but ranks first since their Week 8 bye week. Gibbs has a 30.8% optimal lineup rate, which is the second-highest among running backs. It is time for another Gibbs bounce-back, who leads all running backs with a 25% targets per route run rate this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown would be the best wide receiver to target on the slate, but playing both Gibbs and St. Brown is difficult on any given slate. St. Brown has a 37.4% optimal lineup rate, and the next closest wide receiver doesn’t even reach 20%. However, for the savings, Jameson Williams has been explosive recently with a touchdown in five of his last seven games and three 100+ receiving yard games during that time.
Since their bye week, Williams ranks fourth among wide receivers in fantasy points per game, ahead of St. Brown and only trailing Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Michael Wilson. When Gibbs and the running game are rolling, that is the best news for Williams, who has a 31% play-action target rate, which is tied with Davante Adams for the league high since Week 9.
Williams is an elite value play in lineups that are unable to fit St. Brown. This Lions offense has become concentrated on these three weapons, with Sam LaPorta likely out for the season and seemingly ignoring backup running back David Montgomery. Playing all three with Goff is also in play, but it would require a cheap defense and double tight ends, which has become increasingly popular this season.
One way to save salary is Steelers’ running back Kenneth Gainwell. Starting running back Jaylen Warren was playing through an illness last week, and Gainwell stole the show. He rushed 13 times for 80 yards and caught seven receptions for 46 yards. Gainwell accumulated 19.6 DraftKings points, which was the fourth time in his last five weeks that Gainwell exceeded 16 DraftKings points.
Another benefit to Gainwell is quarterback Aaron Rodgers loves him, which usually translates into fantasy points. With the Steelers expected to be playing from behind, Gainwell is going to be one of the best bring-backs for a Lions stack. Over the last five weeks, Gainwell has a 21% target share and 32% targets per route run rate, which ranks second on the Steelers behind wide receiver DK Metcalf.
Load up on the Lions this week with any of the trio of Gibbs, St. Brown, and Williams. This game has a 52-point total, with the Lions nearing 30 implied points against a defense that struggles on the road. This high-powered offense should be the focal point in many lineups on this 11-game slate.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Kirk Cousins + Bijan Robinson + Drake London + Trey McBride
- Kirk Cousins ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
- Bijan Robinson ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel)
- Drake London ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- Trey McBride ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Both the Falcons and Cardinals are eliminated from the playoffs, but this is still one of the best games to target this week. The total has risen to 48.5 points, which is the third-highest on the slate. The Falcons are three-point road favorites looking to build off their 29-28 upset victory over the Buccaneers last week.
Cardinals’ quarterback Jacoby Brissett is projected to be the most popular player at his position. However, for tournaments, it makes more sense to save the $500 and go down to veteran Kirk Cousins, who is coming off by far his best game of the season. Cousins threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns, accumulating 29.9 DraftKings points and a 117 quarterback rating against the Buccaneers.
Cousins will draw a much easier matchup this week against a Cardinals defense that ranks 25th in EPA per play. They are allowing 351.1 total yards and 27.7 points per game, which is the sixth-highest in the league. This is a fantastic spot for Cousins to have another ceiling performance, and at $4,800 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel, he is a great value quarterback to fit in many studs.
Bijan Robinson has been similar to Gibbs in that he has had ceiling games followed immediately by a dud. He has recorded 30+ DraftKings points in three of his last five games but scored less than 15 points in his other two games. Robinson is coming off 175 scrimmage yards and one rushing touchdown. He caught eight of his 11 targets for 82 yards and continues to be one of the best dual threats.
The Cardinals are allowing 26.4 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Backup running back Tyler Allgeier has been a pest to Robinson’s fantasy points but has taken a dip in his production recently. Allgeier played only 18% of snaps and had 10% of the team’s rushing attempts last week. Expect a heavy dose of Robinson again this week.
The Falcons have a strong chance to get star wide receiver Drake London back after missing the last four weeks with a knee injury. He practiced in limited fashion throughout the week, but keep an eye on his status over the weekend to make sure he is able to play. If London is out, then it is recommended to go back to Kyle Pitts, who had his career-best game last week with three touchdowns and 166 yards.
When London was healthy earlier in the season, he was the top target in this offense. London has a 32% target share this season, and that number climbed to 36% over his last three games before suffering a knee injury. During that three-game stretch, London averaged 30.4 DraftKings points per game. If he is able to play, London should feast on this Cardinals secondary on Sunday.
The Cardinals may also be getting one of their best wide receivers back this week. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been practicing in limited fashion. He came back for a brief time in Week 13 and caught six of his seven targets for 67 yards before leaving again with an injury. However, during that Week 13 game, that made Michael Wilson basically go to a third option but did not dictate the emergence of Trey McBride.
McBride is the best bring-back option for this Falcons main stack. His price tag is coming down a little bit from its peak, but he is still priced like a stud weapon. However, McBride has delivered at this salary. Last week he hauled in 12 of his 13 targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns. His connection with Brissett is impossible to ignore. For McBride, it does not matter if Harrison is playing or not.
Pay down at quarterback with Cousins, which allows the ability to fit in all of the studs like Robinson, London, and McBride. This game has the potential to be a shootout, and these are the players to target.
Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs
Photo Credit: Imagn
