Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Kyle Pitts ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
There is no denying that Pitts has been one of the biggest tight end busts in NFL history. He was selected fourth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, and the list of players drafted immediately after him will make Falcons fans cringe. Ja’Marr Chase came off the board fifth overall, followed by a host of additional All-Pros. I’m sure the Falcons would like a redo.
That said, Pitts is having his best campaign since his rookie season. He’s averaging 45.1 receiving yards per game and a career-best 4.7 receptions per game. Those numbers aren’t anything to write home about – especially when paired with his one touchdown – but it’s at least a step in the right direction.
The most exciting development for Pitts has been Kirk Cousins taking over at quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. absolutely loved throwing the ball to Drake London, but Cousins has spread things out a bit more evenly. The fact that London has missed the past two games also hasn’t hurt, and Pitts has posted a target share of at least 25% in back-to-back outings. Pitts has now played three games with Cousins as the starting QB this season, and he’s had at least eight targets in two of them.
Pitts is coming off one of his best games of the season in Week 13, racking up 15.2 DraftKings points despite failing to find the end zone. He could be looking at a repeat performance vs. the Seahawks. Seattle has been an elite defensive team this season, but their biggest struggles have come against tight ends. They’ve allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to the position, giving Pitts an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4.
Ultimately, Pitts leads all tight ends in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s second at the position on FanDuel. He’s a great compromise between spending all the way up and going all the way down at tight end.
Trey McBride ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
At this point, there is no debating who the best TE in fantasy is: it’s McBride, and it’s not particularly close. He’s averaged 18.7 PPR points per game this season, which is roughly 3.5 points clear of the No. 2 option (Brock Bowers).
He’s really taken things to another level since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB. McBride has increased his production to 23.1 PPR points per game in Brissett’s seven starts, thanks mostly to his increased touchdown total. McBride really struggled to get in the end zone in games with Kyler Murray at QB, but he has seven touchdowns in his past seven games. That’s more than he had in the past two seasons combined.
McBride has also maintained elite target numbers with Brissett under center. He has a 27% target share over his past seven outings, which is identical to his full-season mark.
Overall, McBride has finished as a top-six option at the position in all seven games with Brissett, and he’s finished as TE2 or better in six of them. You simply can not find a safer investment in fantasy at the moment. McBride has gotten significantly more expensive across the industry, but he still ranks first in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He also has the top median and ceiling projections.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Tyler Warren ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Warren has been excellent as a rookie, ranking seventh at the position in PPR points per game. He hasn’t displayed a huge ceiling on most weeks, but he’s provided a really consistent floor. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven games this season, and he just narrowly missed last week vs. the Texans.
Warren will go from one of the toughest matchups in fantasy to one of the best for tight ends. While Houston has been a dominant defense this season, Jacksonville has allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Warren has yet to face the Jaguars this season, but he could do some damage in his two matchups vs. them down the stretch.
The only real question is just how limited Daniel Jones is by his current injury. His numbers weren’t awful last week against an elite defense, so he should hopefully be able to keep the Colts’ elite offense rolling. This game has the third-highest total on the slate, so it should also be a solid environment for fantasy purposes.
A.J. Barner ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Barner stands out as a nice option on DraftKings, where his $3,200 price tag comes with a 96% Bargain Rating. It’s the best mark at the position among players priced above $2,700.
Barner has seen a nice uptick in responsibilities for Seattle of late. He’s up to a 73% route participation across his past three outings, and he’s logged a 23% target share in that stretch. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of those contests, including 17.1 DraftKings points vs. the Rams.
Barner stands out as the best of the cheap TEs using Sim Labs. He has the fourth-best optimal lineup rate at the position, and he’s No. 1 for players priced below $3,900. Barner’s projected ownership is also lower than his optimal lineup rate, suggesting that he’s being undervalued for tournaments.
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Brenton Strange ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
Like Pitts, Strange stands out as a nice compromise between paying up and punting at tight end. He’s suited up in each of the Jaguars’ past two games, and he’s scored at least 13.5 DraftKings points in both of them. He’s also shown the ability to return value in multiple ways, scoring a touchdown last week and finishing with just under 100 yards the week prior.
Strange’s underlying metrics in those contests leave a bit to be desired – specifically his 18% target share – but he makes up for it by getting downfield. He’s posted a 14.1 aDOT over his past two games, which is an astronomical figure for a tight end. Among relevant tight ends, it’s the fourth-best mark at the position over that time frame.
It gives Strange some solid upside for his price tag, and he makes for an interesting stack with quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Both players are showing up as undervalued in Sim Labs, and you could even throw WR Jakobi Meyers into the mix.
Evan Engram ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
The Engram signing hasn’t quite been “drafting Pitts over Ja’Marr Chase” bad, but he’s been a major disappointment for most of the year. He’s been limited to 38 catches and 339 receiving yards this season, both of which are among the worst marks of his career.
However, Engram has trended in the right direction of late. He’s coming off a season-high 22% target share last week, and he responded with 13.9 DraftKings points. He was the sixth-highest scorer at the position for the week, despite the fact that he failed to find the end zone.
The Raiders have been surprisingly good against tight ends this season, but Engram stands out as a nice pivot off some of the chalkier TEs in this price range. He’s not projected for as much ownership as guys like Barner, Harold Fannin, and Colston Loveland, but he has comparable projections and optimal lineup rates.
Zach Ertz ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Ertz is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his 85% Bargain Rating is tied for the top mark at the position. He’s also been pretty reliable of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he’s coming off 18.7 FanDuel points vs. the Broncos last week.
Now, Ertz will get his starting QB back in Jayden Daniels, and those two have displayed excellent chemistry over the past two years. He ranks fifth on FanDuel in projected Plus/Minus, and he has the fourth-highest optimal lineup rate.
Pictured: Tyler Warren
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
