Week 14 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.

However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

James Cook ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)

The game between the Bills and Bengals stands out as the clear top target of the week for fantasy purposes. It has a 53.5-point total, which is the top mark on the slate by six full points. Only two other games are within nine points, so it should be the most popular target in DFS.

The Bills are solid favorites in this contest, and they lead the slate with a 29.75 implied team total. That stems primarily from their matchup vs. the Bengals’ defense. They have been dismal this season, against both the run and the pass. For running backs in particular, the Bengals have been a goldmine. They’ve allowed the most PPR points per game to the position by a wide margin, and they’re 31st in rush defense EPA. Overall, Cook leads the position with a +5.4 Opponent Plus/Minus.

Cook has been one of the best running backs in fantasy this season, ranking sixth at the position in PPR points per game. His workload has also increased in recent weeks. He’s handled 76% of the team’s rushing attempts over the past five games, and he’s seen an uptick in receiving work as well. He has at least three receptions in four straight contests, which is something we haven’t always seen from him. He’s still not quite elite from a workload standpoint, but the gap between him and the best RBs in fantasy has closed a bit.

Add it all up, and Cook stands out as an elite option at $7,800 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a 95% Bargain Rating, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. He doesn’t grade out quite as favorably on FanDuel, but he still has a top-five projected Plus/Minus across the industry.

Breece Hall ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Many were surprised by the Jets’ decision not to trade Hall before the deadline. He’s going to be a free agent this offseason, and he seems likely to head elsewhere. The Jets have a million holes on their roster, so they can’t afford to pay Hall the type of contract he’s going to be looking for.

With that in mind, it’s probably not surprising that the Jets have ridden Hall hard down the stretch. If he’s not going to be on their team next season, who cares if you put a little extra tread on his tires?

Hall is coming off an 89% snap share in Week 13, and he handled 90% of the team’s carries. That includes 100% of the short-yardage and long-down-and-distance snaps, which tend to be the most valuable.

Hall has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including one ceiling performance in Week 8 vs. the Bengals. He’ll have another solid opportunity for a strong showing this week vs. the Dolphins. Their defense has improved as the year has progressed, but they still rank below average in rush defense EPA and fantasy points allowed to the position.

Perhaps most importantly, the Jets are just three-point home underdogs in this spot. Hall’s best production has unsurprisingly come in games where the Jets were expected to be competitive. He’s played six games as a favorite or underdog of three points or fewer, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.06 in that split (per the Trends tool). He’s scored at least 15.6 DraftKings points in all but one of those contests, including his first matchup vs. the Dolphins. Ultimately, he stands out as underpriced across the industry.

Ashton Jeanty ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)

It’s hard to get too excited about the Raiders’ prospects this week. Not only have they had a terrible season to begin with, but now they have to deal with the Broncos’ elite defense. They’re fifth in EPA per play, and they’ve allowed the third-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs. The Raiders managed just seven points in their first matchup vs. the Broncos this season.

So why look to Jeanty in this matchup? It’s all about the usage. Jeanty has seen a massive uptick in receiving work of late. He’s had eight targets in three straight games, and he owns a 22% target share over that time frame. That’s an elite figure. Only Christian McCaffrey has a better mark at running back for the year, while only Jahmyr Gibbs has a better figure since Week 11.

The Bronocos’ defense also isn’t quite as stout against the run as it is vs. the pass. They rank 14th in rush defense EPA, and Jeanty had 60 rushing yards and a touchdown in his first meeting vs. Denver.

Overall, he should be a lock for 20+ opportunities in this matchup, which is a ton of volume for someone with a pretty moderate price tag. He leads the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 2 on FanDuel.

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

De’Von Achane ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)

While Cook stands out as the clear top stud on DraftKings, things aren’t quite as cut and dry on FanDuel. Achane is actually slightly cheaper than Cook on that site, despite checking in at $1,000 higher on DraftKings.

From a workload standpoint, it’s hard to beat what Achane has provided this season. He ranks second at the position with a 22% target share, and he’s also handled 67% of their rushing attempts. The latter figure has been higher of late, with Achane posting a rushing share of at least 74% in three of his past four games.

Achane has been an elite source of value basically all season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game on FanDuel. He just narrowly missed in that contest, which came on the road against an elite Browns’ defense.

Things shouldn’t be nearly as difficult for him vs. the Jets. He finished with 99 rushing yards and a touchdown in his first meeting vs. New York, and they’ve allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to the position. There’s no reason he can’t improve upon his production in the rematch.

Achane ultimately has the second-highest ceiling projection at running back, and he ranks first in optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs. He’s also showing up as undervalued in Sim Labs, with his optimal lineup rate exceeding his projected ownership.

Quinshon Judkins ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)

Judkins has dominated the rushing opportunities for the Browns since signing his rookie contract. He’s tallied 79% of their rushing attempts from Week 3 on, and he has the potential to be more productive than usual with his carries vs. the Titans. They rank 24th in rush defense EPA, and opposing runners have seen a nice boost in fantasy production when facing them.

Judkins should also benefit from the game script. This is only the second time this season that the Browns will be home favorites, and Judkins dominated in his first game in that split. He racked up 25 carries, 84 yards, and three touchdowns, resulting in 26.4 DraftKings points.

Finally, Judkins could also be a bit more involved as a pass-catcher this week. Dylan Sampson is listed as questionable, and Judkins posted a 13% target share with Sampson banged up last week. If Sampson is unable to go, Judkins could take on the third-down responsibilities in addition to being the team’s early-down grinder. That would be a big boost to his fantasy profile.

R.J. Harvey ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Harvey has taken over as the Broncos’ top running back following the injury to JK Dobbins. He hasn’t exactly dominated the opportunities, but he’s seen at least 61% of the carries in back-to-back games. He also had all of the team’s goal-line carries last week after being vultured by Jaleel McLaughlin the week prior. It’s still annoying that Tyler Badie continues to play on passing downs, but Harvey is getting more than enough work to be relevant for fantasy purposes.

Harvey wasn’t particularly efficient as a runner last week, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry, but he made up for it with two touchdowns and three receptions. His a solid bet to find the paint once again vs. the Raiders, who have allowed the third-most rushing TDs to opposing running backs.

Harvey ultimately stands out as one of the cheapest starting RBs on the slate, making him one of the best sources of savings at the position.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Bucky Irving ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

Irving made his return to the lineup for the Buccaneers last week, and the team said he would be “limited” in his first game back. Well, Irving handled 79% of the team’s rushing attempts, so if that’s a limited workload, I’m excited to see what future weeks will bring. Irving was on the field for just 54% of the team’s snaps and had just an 8% target share, so he certainly has some room for growth in those areas.

Irving still managed to finish with 16.1 DraftKings points in his first game back, and he has the potential to improve upon that mark in Week 14. The Buccaneers are listed as 8.5-point road favorites vs. the Saints, setting up an elite potential game script. Irving has played in just two games as a favorite of at least a touchdown, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.32 in that split.

Aaron Jones ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

Jones exited last week’s game early, but he has ultimately been cleared for a Week 14 matchup vs. the Commanders. It’s hard to get too excited about the Vikings’ offense at the moment – J.J. McCarthy has been an abject disaster – but the matchup vs. the Commanders could be just what the doctor ordered. They’re dead last in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. It’s a great spot for McCarthy to just turn around and hand the ball off to his running backs.

Jones is still going to have to split the workload with Jordan Mason, but Jones had taken on a larger share before last week’s injury. From Weeks 10 through 12, Jones played on 69% of the snaps and handled 63% of the carries. He also chipped in his usual work as a receiver, posting a 15% target share. That type of workload has appeal vs. the Commanders, especially at a $5,300 price tag.

Jonathan Taylor ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel)

Taylor has come back to reality just a smidge in recent weeks. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, but those were against two tough defenses. The Chiefs and Texans are both top 10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, so it was always going to be tough for Taylor to get going in those contests.

Taylor ultimately still provides the same upside that he did at the start of the season, when he was routinely gashing teams for 100+ yards and multiple TDs. If anything, it’s possible his workload could be even larger moving forward. Quarterback Daniel Jones is playing with a fractured leg, and Taylor had 21 carries and five targets alongside a hobbled Jones in Week 13.

Taylor still possesses the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models, and he also ranks first on FanDuel in projected Plus/Minus. The Jaguars are another tough matchup – they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs – but Taylor is definitely still capable of going off.

Chase Brown ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)

Brown is the other RB in the juicy Bills-Bengals game, and he shouldn’t be nearly as popular as Cook. He’s projected for roughly 5% ownership across the industry, and his optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Brown got off to a slow start playing behind a dreadful Bengals’ offensive line, but he has turned things on recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, and he’s scored at least 18.0 DraftKings points in five straight.

Brown did lose some work to Samaje Perine last week, who suited up for the first time since Week 9. Specifically, Perine had 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. That’s a cause for concern for Brown, but it’s possible that Perine’s involvement was game script-related. The Bengals were trouncing the Ravens, and 10 of Perine’s 14 carries came after halftime.

Brown was also still the clear top receiver in the Bengals’ backfield. He had seven targets vs. the Ravens, good for a 16% target share in Joe Burrow’s first game back. That could pay dividends against the Bills, who are moderate favorites.

Finally, Buffalo has been a great matchup for running backs for most of the season, ranking 30th in rush defense EPA. They were excellent against the Steelers last week, but Pittsburgh doesn’t have the same caliber of passing attack as Cincinnati. Ultimately, Brown has solid upside for his price tag, and he shouldn’t command much attention.

Pictured: James Cook
Photo Credit: Imagn