NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 12

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

New England Patriots OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #11 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals DL

With the Cowboys trading for some defensive reinforcement at the trade deadline, the clear-cut worst defense in the NFL is the Bengals. A huge part of that is due to their inability to stop the run. They have allowed 5.38 adjusted line yards per run, which is dead last in the NFL by a wide margin. The difference between them and #31 (the Giants) is bigger than the gap from #31 to #13.

Unlike last week, where we had a frustratingly split backfield taking on the Bengals, this week we get TreyVeyon Henderson ($6,700), who has turned in back-to-back 30-point, two-touchdown weeks. With the Patriots favored by well over a touchdown, the game script should also favor the ground game.

Don’t let the #11 pass blocking ranking scare you off from the pass game, though. Much of that is due to Drake Maye ($6,900) scrambling in an attempt to extend plays, which occasionally end in sacks. Plus, the 14.2% combined rate is still slightly above the league average of roughly 14.7%.

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Cincinnati Bengals OL (#17 In Combined Line Yards, #1 in combined Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots DL

Patriots-Bengals is setting up perfectly from a DFS standpoint. The favored Patriots should be able to run the ball well against the Bengals, while the underdog Bengals have an edge in pass protection, so they can find success playing catch-up should they fall behind as expected.

The confounding variable at play here is the suspension of Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has largely dominated targets since Joe Flacco ($5,500) arrived in Cincinnati, so his absence could go one of two ways. The pessimistic view is that the Bengals’ passing offense simply doesn’t work without Chase. However, the massive target vacuum could spell a monster day for Tee Higgins ($7,100), Andrei Iosivas ($4,100), or direct backup Mitchell Tinsley ($3,000).

Higgins is obviously the highest confidence play of the bunch, but I’ll be taking some sprinkles on other Bengals receivers this week, mainly in stacks with Flacco and Henderson.

Dallas Cowboys OL (#4 In Combined Line Yards, #1 (tied) in combined Sack Rate) vs. Philadelphia Eagles DL

The only team to crack the top five in both line yards and adjusted sack rate is the Cowboys, who have quietly been one of the better offensive lines this season.

However, I’m not quite as confident as the numbers would indicate. The Eagles shut down a strong Lions offense last week — though that was outdoors in Philadelphia — and held Dallas to just 20 points in their previous meeting despite star defensive tackle Jalen Carter getting ejected before the first defensive snap.

I’m mentioning them here because it’s a strong matchup on paper, especially with this game being played in Dallas, but I’m not sure I trust the numbers enough to pay up for Dak Prescott ($6,400), CeeDee Lamb ($7,900), and company.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Seattle Seahawks DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Tennessee Titans OL

Seattle ($4,000) is as expensive as I’ve seen a D/ST this season, so this one isn’t exactly flying under the radar. They’re in a great spot against the Titans, who rank 31st in adjusted sack rate and 32nd in points per game this season, but the price tag makes them a tough click.

While I’m not sure if those numbers are truly the fault of the offensive line or rookie QB Cam Ward ($4,500) being slow to make decisions, that doesn’t actually matter for DFS purposes. He’s very likely to take plenty of sacks, as he leads the league with 41 on the season.

Ward has only thrown six interceptions, though, so the upside for Seattle’s defense probably doesn’t justify the price tag — but they’re a very solid median and floor play.

Cleveland Browns DL (#2 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders OL

On the other hand, Raiders QB Geno Smith ($4,500) leads the league in interceptions and is fourth in sacks taken this season. Now he gets to face an aggressive Browns defense that ranks third in adjusted sack rate and first in adjusted line yards, giving very little hope to the Raiders offense.

Cleveland ($2,900) is somewhat cheap since they’re slight underdogs, but the betting line has far more to do with their quarterback situation than any hope for the Raiders offense. They’re my favorite overall D/ST play when factoring in salary.

Picture: Drake Maye, Patriots Offense
Photo Credit: Imagn

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.