Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Chicago Bears OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #7 in combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants DL
The Bears offensive line helped Kyle Monangai run for 176 yards on 26 carries last week against the Bengals. They get a second straight solid matchup this week, as they take on a Giants defensive line that is solid at rushing the passer but has struggled to limit the run game.
While they’re not as bad as the Bengals, New York ranks 28th in adjusted line yards defensively, while the Bears offensive line ranks third. Combined with the fact that the Bears are favored, that makes this a much better spot to attack with the running game than the passing attack.
Of course, early in the week it’s unclear if Monangai will have the lead role again or if D’Andre Swift will be back in action. My guess is Monangai would take some of the touches from Swift if both are active, which would make both borderline unplayable, but that’s a dilemma for the weekend once we have more news on Swift’s health.
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Houston Texans OL (#13 In Combined Line Yards, #1 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DL
We have the opposite situation in Houston, where the matchup is much better for the Texans’ passing attack than it is for their ground game. That creates an interesting situation, since CJ Stroud suffered a concussion last weekend and may not be able to clear protocol in time for this week.
If Stroud misses, Davis Mills will be running the offense in Houston. Mills completed just 17 of 30 attempts while filling in for Stroud last week, for a pathetic 4.6 yards per attempt. However, that came against a Denver defense with the best adjusted sack rate in the league — and now he’s facing a Jacksonville unit that’s tied for the worst.
With Mills priced at just $4,500, he will be a solid salary saver if he draws the start. If Stroud is able to clear the protocol, he’s an interesting high-upside play and potential stacking option. The 38-point total in this game presently reflects the likelihood that Mills gets the start but would almost certainly climb up if Stroud returns.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Cleveland Browns DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Jets OL
The Jets offense ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed, and while we could debate whether that’s the fault of the offensive line or mistake-prone quarterback Justin Fields, the result is plenty of scoring opportunities for the opposing defensive unit. While New York’s fire sale at the trade deadline only saw defensive stars shipped out, that should help the Browns get out in front — which forces the Jets offense into more passing situations.
Either way, it’s a great spot for Cleveland ($2,900), who are underpriced as favorites against the Jets. They’ll be one of the more obvious/popular DST plays this week but are a solid option for cash games and smaller field contests where being contrarian isn’t as important.
Detroit Lions DL (#4 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Washington Commanders OL
Detroit ($3,400) comes in at $500 more than Cleveland despite being in a lesser spot on paper. However, those numbers don’t account for the fact that Commanders starting QB Jayden Daniels will be out in Week 10. Marcus Mariota is filling in, and Mariota has taken seven sacks and thrown four interceptions in just over three games worth of action.
The Lions pass rush, led by Aidan Hutchinson, ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate, and Detroit is favored by around ten. That’s a tough spot for Mariota to step intoand could lead to a big score for the Lions if some things break right. If they turn up with a moderate ownership projection, I’d be especially interested in GPPs as a high-upside option.
Picture: Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze
Photo Credit: Imagn
