NFL Week 8 features a Sunday Night Football grudge match. Aaron Rodgers will face the Packers for the first time after winning a Super Bowl and four MVPs in Green Bay. The Steelers are currently listed as three-point home underdogs, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
The Packers got off to a flying start this season, but they’ve hit a couple of speed bumps in recent weeks. They suffered an embarrassing loss to the Browns and followed it up with a surprising tie against the Cowboys. Still, they’re currently 4-1-1, giving them the best record in the NFC.
Meanwhile, the Steelers always seem to outproduce their talent level. They’re off to another unexpected strong start in 2025-26, jumping out to a 4-2 record and the top spot in the AFC North. With the Ravens and Bengals both on the ropes, the Steelers have the potential to pick up another division title under head coach Mike Tomlin. They’re probably not as good as their 4-2 record suggests, but fade Tomlin at your own risk.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Josh Jacobs is the new Cris Carter – all he does is score touchdowns. If you’re old enough to get that reference, thanks for being here.
Jacobs has found the paint twice in each of his past three games, and he’s unsurprisingly had some huge fantasy performances to go with it. He racked up 31.7 DraftKings points in the Packers’ overtime tie vs. the Cowboys, and he followed that up with 32.0 DraftKings points vs. the Bengals.
Jacobs wasn’t quite as productive last week vs. the Cardinals, but he still has one of the most desirable workloads in fantasy. He’s handled 71% of the Packers’ rushing attempts this season, including the vast majority of short-yardage opportunities. He’s also a non-zero in the passing attack, garnering a 12% target share for the year. That’s far from elite, but it still gives him a solid baseline of 2.7 catches and 29.8 receiving yards per game.
Jacobs gets a middling matchup this week vs. the Steelers. They’re right in the middle in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to opposing RBs, but they’ve still allowed some big performances to the position. Chase Brown racked up more than 100 rushing yards on just 10 carries last week, and Pittsburgh ranks merely 20th in opponent yards per carry (4.4 yards).
Add in the fact that the Packers are favored, and Jacobs has one of the highest median projections on the slate. He also has the top ceiling projection among the non-quarterbacks.
Jordan Love is the other “stud” on this slate, though it’s hard to call his production this season very studly. He had one massive game vs. the Cowboys, and he had a respectable 20.88 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders in Week 2. Other than that, he’s been at 15.96 DraftKings points or fewer in his other four games. Add it all up, and Love is merely QB16 in terms of fantasy points per game.
That’s not entirely his fault. The Packers are a run-heavy squad, posting a -3.5% Pass Rate Over Expectation for the year. Love has attempted 26 or fewer passes in three of six games, and he had just 29 in a fourth. Unsurprisingly, those are the four games with his lowest fantasy totals.
The good news is that the Steelers have been a goldmine for opposing QBs this season. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position, and Love leads all players with a +5.3 Opponent Plus/Minus. If he gets enough opportunities in this matchup, he has the potential for a huge score.
Love ultimately leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he ranks first in projected Plus/Minus as well. QBs always have immense value in the single-game format, and Love is the more appealing of the two quarterbacks.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
On paper, Rodgers has had a nice season for the Steelers. He’s actually been better than Love in terms of fantasy points per game, ranking as QB15 for the year. He doesn’t have the same upside, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of six games.
However, some of Rodgers’ advanced metrics aren’t nearly as friendly. He’s getting rid of the ball quicker than just about any QB in football, and he’s averaged just 6.1 intended air yards per attempt. He’s essentially operating like a point guard in basketball and just looking to get the ball in his playmaker’s hands.
While that strategy can work against some teams (like the Jets and Bengals), it doesn’t figure to be quite as successful against the Packers. They have an elite defense, ranking first in coverage grade and fifth in pass rush grade, per PFF. Rodgers has struggled against most of the other good defenses he’s faced this season, so expectations should be tempered in his first matchup vs. his old squad. Rodgers still stands out as a reasonable option at $9,800, but he has plenty of downside at that figure as well.
Jaylen Warren looked like he might be headed for a timeshare situation in Pittsburgh. Kenneth Gainwell fared well in the lone game that Warren missed, and when he returned in Week 6, it was a pretty even split. Warren saw just 52% of the snaps and 46% of the carries, which is a far cry from what he posted before getting injured.
However, Warren looked more like a bellcow in his second game back. His snap share jumped up to 67%, while his carry share was up to 84%. He also saw five targets, which he converted into four catches for 31 yards. Warren ultimately finished with 22.8 DraftKings points vs. the Bengals, which is an excellent figure for someone without a touchdown.
Warren’s fantasy stock is ultimately on the way back up, but the matchup vs. the Packers is pretty brutal. They’ve pretty thoroughly shut down opposing rushing attacks this season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. The Steelers are also underdogs, which could result in fewer opportunities than usual.
DK Metcalf has been the Steelers’ top receiver this season, though he hasn’t had as much work as you might think. His target share is just 23%, though he’s made up for it with plenty of big plays. He’s racked up 46% of the team’s air yards, and he’s scored four receiving touchdowns.
Big plays are Metcalf’s specialty, and he’s clearly Rodgers’ go-to target when he does throw it downfield. Still, $9,400 feels like a big price tag give Metcalf’s production this season. He’s had six targets or fewer in all but two games, and he’s eclipsed 19.5 DraftKings points merely once. That was a game where he turned five targets into 126 yards and a touchdown, which doesn’t feel particularly likely vs. the Packers.
The Packers have one of the deepest groups of pass catchers in the league. That’s particularly true this week, with Christian Watson slated to suit up for the first time all season.
However, the team’s most-expensive option is actually tight end Tucker Kraft. He’s been one of their most consistent options this season, racking up an 18% target share. He has elite utilization numbers for a tight end, including a 92% snap share. He’s coming off a season-high 10 targets last week, and the Steelers have struggled against tight ends this season. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position, and Noah Fant found the paint against them just last week.
Romeo Doubs has been the Packers’ leading receiver this season. He’s garnered a 22% target share, and he’s been at 31% or higher in back-to-back games. He’s ultimately finished with at least eight targets in three straight contests, and he already has a game with three receiving touchdowns. He has the best projections of the group in our NFL Models, making him the team’s clear No. 1 choice at receiver.
Matthew Golden is arguably the team’s top receiving talent. He was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, which has to feel like a slap in the face to Rodgers. They never selected a pass-catcher that early while he was in town, but they had no problem doing so for Love.
Unfortunately, Golden has not been able to get going as a rookie. The good news is that his snaps and routes have been on the rise, but he hasn’t been able to earn any additional targets. He has just a 17% target share since the team’s Week 5 bye, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of six games this season. It’s possible that his role continues to grow, but that feels less likely with Watson back in the lineup.
Speaking of Watson, he’s the clear X-Factor on this slate. How much he’ll actually play remains to be seen, but he is a walking big-play threat. He averaged 21.4 yards per reception last year, so he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to potentially return value. He doesn’t grade out well in our NFL Models, but there’s no denying his upside.
Calvin Austin III will return for the Steelers this week, and he should step right back into a prominent role for the Steelers. Before getting injured, he had an 86% route participation and 16% target share through the first three weeks. Austin was also being targeted way downfield, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of greater than 16 yards in those contests. He stands out as an outstanding option on FanDuel, where his 95% Bargain Rating is one of the best marks on the slate.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Chris Boswell stands out as the best of the group in terms of projected Plus/Minus, though he is projected for the most ownership by a sizable amount.
- Jonnu Smith ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – The Steelers have a trio of options at tight end, and each of them found the paint last week vs. the Bengals. Smith has been the most consistently involved of the trio, and the Packers’ biggest weakness this season has been defending tight ends. They’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to the position, so all three options have some appeal on this slate.
- Pat Freiermuth ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Freiermuth had been quiet for most of the year before erupting for 111 yards and two scores last week. His route participation jumped up to 71% in that contest, which is an encouraging sign for his prospects moving forward. $7,000 on FanDuel is too much for him, but he’s very reasonable on DraftKings.
- Darnell Washington ($3,800 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Even with Freiermuth’s breakout last week, Washington still saw a solid handful of snaps and a 15% target share. The Steelers might use less multi-TE looks with Austin back in the fold, but Washington should still have a role.
- Emanuel Wilson ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Emanuel Wilson is the Packers’ backup RB, and he saw a bit more work than usual with Jacobs banged up last week. Still, Jacobs has been a clear bell cow for most of the season, and unlike last week, Jacobs does not carry an injury designation heading into this contest.
- Roman Wilson ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Roman Wilson saw his largest workload of the season in Week 7, running a route on 54% of the team’s dropbacks. Unfortunately, he still failed to earn targets. With Austin now back, his role could be in jeopardy.
- Kenneth Gainwell ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) – Gainwell saw less work in Week 7, but he did still mix in on passing downs. He played on 60% of the long-yardage snaps, so he could be a sneaky target if you expect the Steelers to play from behind.
- Luke Musgrave ($1,600 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Musgrave is the Packers’ TE2, but he has just a 4% target share for the year. He’s been at 8% or lower in each game this season, so scoring a cheap touchdown is his only real path to relevance.
Pictured: Jordan Love
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn
