NFL Week 7 gets started with a classic AFC North rivalry. The Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals, with the Steelers listed as 5.5-point road favorites. The total for this contest sits at 44.5 points.
The Steelers are off to another outstanding start in 2025. They were not necessarily expected to contend for the division crown, but injuries have opened the door for the Steelers to jump to the top of the standings. They’re currently sitting at 4-1, giving them the second-best record in the entire AFC.
Unfortunately, things have not gone the same for the Bengals. They won each of their first two outings, but they lost MVP candidate Joe Burrow in Game 2. As a result, they’ve suffered four straight defeats. Burrow is not expected back until the very end of the season, and the Bengals could be long out of the running for a playoff spot by then.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Ja’Marr Chase is arguably the best receiver in football, and he leads the way on this slate. He’s coming off a historic campaign in 2024, leading the league in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708), and receiving touchdowns (17). He ultimately averaged 23.7 PPR points per game, which was the top mark at the position by four full points.
Chase hasn’t been quite as dominant in 2025, which is to be expected with his star quarterback on the sidelines. However, Chase has maintained elite usage while playing with the Bengals’ backups. He owns a 30% target share for the year, and he’s garnered 39% of the team’s air yards. He maintained those figures in Joe Flacco’s first start with the Bengals last week, with Chase racking up a 31% target share and 46% air yards share.
While the quality of targets may have decreased slightly, Chase is still capable of doing a lot of damage. He finished with 110 yards and two touchdowns two weeks ago, and he followed that up with 10 catches, 94 yards, and a score last week. He ultimately scored at least 25.1 DraftKings points in both contests, so he still has an excellent ceiling.
Chase ultimately leads the slate in median projection, and he has the second-highest ceiling as well. $12,000 might be a bit expensive for him overall, but there’s not a ton of high-end talent to consider in this matchup.
Tee Higgins is the Bengals’ other stud receiver. When Burrow was under center, there was more than enough volume to go around for both players. Higgins wasn’t quite as good as Chase, but his average of 18.5 PPR points per game was still the sixth-best mark at receiver last year.
However, while Chase has managed to maintain his production without Burrow, Higgins’ numbers have fallen off a cliff. His target share is down to 19%, while he’s outside the top 40 in terms of fantasy production.
The good news is that Higgins’ arrow could be pointing up. He’s coming off back-to-back games with 11.2 PPR points, and his underlying utilization numbers are still solid. He owns a 33% air yards share and a 36% end zone share for the year, so he has the potential to improve moving forward.
That said, $10,000 is clearly too much for Higgins. He owns the worst projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, so he’s tough to consider at that figure. He’s much more reasonable on FanDuel, where his $8,400 salary comes with a slate-best 97% Bargain Rating.
DK Metcalf has moved into the stud tier for the Steelers. He’s always had the physical gifts to be a stud receiver, but he’s never been in a situation that fully highlighted them. Things still aren’t perfect in Pittsburgh, but Metcalf has caught a touchdown in four straight games. He’s had at least 95 yards in two straight, and he’s responded with 19.5 and 26.6 DraftKings points.
Still, Metcalf is merely tied for 12th at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, despite running pretty hot from a touchdown standpoint. His underlying utilization numbers are solid – 25% target share, 45% air yards share, 38% end zone share – but he’s doing it in a low-volume passing offense. The Steelers have the sixth-lowest pass rate in the NFL, so Metcalf has managed six targets or fewer in three of five games.
It gives Metcalf a wide range of outcomes every time he takes the field. He’s talented enough to turn five targets into 100+ yards and a touchdown, just like he did in Week 4. However, he also has the potential for a clunker.
The best thing Metcalf has going for him on Thursday is the matchup. The Bengals’ defense remains a massive liability, and they’re merely 27th in pass defense EPA. They’ve allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, so they’re probably not the team that is going to slow Metcalf down.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Aaron Rodgers has reached the “crafty veteran” stage of his career. He’s no longer throwing 100-mile-per-hour fastballs, but he’s painting the corners in the low 90s. He’s averaging just 5.4 intended air yards per throw this season, which is the lowest mark in the NFL. Rodgers is also looking to avoid hits by getting the ball out as quickly as possible: only Carson Wentz has averaged fewer time to pass.
That gives Rodgers minimal upside. He did manage to throw for four touchdowns against the Jets in Week 1, but he followed that up with three straight games with 12.8 DraftKings points or fewer. He bounced back slightly with 17.5 DraftKings points last week, but that’s still a pretty mediocre fantasy showing for a quarterback.
Like Metcalf, the biggest plus for Rodgers is the matchup. The Bengals have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Rodgers owns an excellent +2.5 Opponent Plus/Minus. It remains to be seen if he’ll have enough opportunities to actually take advantage.
Flacco will make his second consecutive start for the Bengals after being traded earlier this season. He looked washed during his tenure with the Browns, but Flacco had a respectable showing vs. the Packers last week. The Bengals let him air it out 45 times, and he responded with 217 passing yards and two touchdowns.
While that might not be great production from an efficiency standpoint, the volume is at least encouraging. He also has an elite tandem of receivers at his disposal, so Flacco could continue to provide some sneaky upside for Cincinnati.
The Steelers haven’t been quite as dominant defensively as in previous years, but they still have a ferocious pass-rush. They have the fourth-best PFF grade in that department, and the Bengals have the fourth-worst pass-blocking grade. That makes the battle in the trenches a major factor. If the Bengals can hold up better than expected, Flacco should have some opportunities to make plays against the Steelers’ secondary. If T.J. Watt and company dominate, Flacco could spend most of the game on his back.
Jaylen Warren opened the season as the Steelers’ unquestioned top running back. However, he was forced to miss Week 4 with an injury, and Kenneth Gainwell shone in his absence. He tallied 99 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, so he forced his way into a bigger role moving forward. When Warren returned in Week 6, the two players operated in a clear committee. Warren led the backfield with 52% of the snaps and had 46% of the carries, while Gainwell was at 34% and 25%, respectively. Rookie Kaleb Johnson also got into the mix, so this could be a three-man split moving forward. That makes all of these options feel a bit overpriced.
However, the matchup vs. the Bengals is as good as it gets. As bad as the Bengals have been against the pass, they’ve somehow been even worse against the run. They’re allowing the most PPR points per game to opposing running backs, and it’s not particularly close. They’re a full three points ahead of the second-worst squad, which is a pretty massive gap.
Add in the fact that the Steelers are favored, and it’s possible that there’s enough value to go around for all the backs in this matchup. Warren is the most appealing target, and he’s showing up with the highest optimal lineup rate at the Captain spot in Sim Labs. Gainwell has one of the largest discrepancies between projected ownership and optimal rate, so he’s a solid choice if you’re looking to go contrarian.
Chase Brown is the Bengals’ top running back, and he had one of the most desirable workloads in fantasy when Burrow was under center. He was a true workhorse down the stretch last year, and he followed that up with 100% and 94% of the team’s carries in their first two games this season.
Unfortunately, Brown has had to deal with a brutal set of circumstances. No high-volume runner in football is averaging fewer yards before contact, and Brown has been unable to overcome it. He’s averaged just 2.7 yards per carry this season, which is more than 1.5 fewer yards than he averaged last year.
As a result, Brown has started to lose some opportunities. He’s down to just 53% of the snaps and 59% of the carries over the past two weeks. That includes just 20% of the short-yardage opportunities and 23% of the long-down-and-distance snaps. Those are the most high-value opportunities for a running back, since they lead to touchdowns and receptions.
With his workload decreasing, it’s hard to get excited about Brown in this spot. The Steelers have done a good job against RBs so far this season, giving Brown an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.6.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Chris Boswell and the Bengals Defense are tied for the best projected Plus/Minus of the group, but the Steelers Defense has the most upside. They have the top optimal lineup of the quartet in Sim Labs, and they’re expected to be under-owned.
- Samaje Perine ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – With Brown’s workload decreasing, it has opened up some additional opportunities for Perine. Specifically, he played on 82% of the long-yardage snaps last week, which could give him solid upside as a pass-catcher moving forward.
- Jonnu Smith ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – The Steelers are currently without No. 2 receiver Calvin Austin III, opening up some additional opportunities for the other pass-catchers on the roster. That includes Smith. He has a respectable 15% target share for the year, and his 71% route participation in Week 6 was his second-best mark of the season.
- Noah Fant ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Mike Gesicki is out of the lineup for the Bengals, which means Fant should operate as the team’s starting tight end. Fant was targeted on 18% of his routes run last week, so he has the potential to provide excellent value with an uptick in volume vs. the Steelers.
- Pat Freiermuth ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Without Austin last week, the Steelers had multiple tight ends on the field for the majority of their plays. Freiermuth earned just one target vs. the Browns, but he has the potential for more vs. the Bengals.
- Andrei Iosivas ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Iosivas is the Bengals’ No. 3 receiver, and he has an elite 91% route participation over the past three weeks. Chase and Higgins are still soaking up most of the targets, but Iosivas has at least four in back-to-back games. That gives him some upside.
- Kaleb Johnson ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – Is it possible that Johnson is out of the doghouse? The rookie was banished after an early-season fumble, but he got back in the rotation with Warren sidelined in Week 4. He maintained a role in Week 6, so it’s possible the Steelers look to get him more involved as the season progresses.
- Darnell Washington ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Washington has seemingly overtaken Freiermuth in the pecking order in Pittsburgh. He’s posted a route participation of at least 61% in back-to-back games, and he has eight total targets in those contests.
- Scotty Miller ($1,000 DraftKings, $1,200 FanDuel) – Miller is the Steelers’ No. 2 receiver for the time being, though he failed to earn a single target from Rodgers last week.
- Drew Sample ($600 DraftKings, $1,400 FanDuel) – Sample should serve as the Bengals’ TE2 in this matchup, which should get him on the field for a handful of plays.
Pictured: Ja’Marr Chase
Photo Credit: Imagn
