Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Trey McBride ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
McBride is coming off his worst showing of the season in Week 5. He finished with just five catches for 41 yards, resulting in just 9.1 DraftKings points.
However, McBride remains the gold standard at the position from a utilization standpoint. He leads all tight ends with a 26% target share for the year, while his 27% air yards share is tied for first. He’s logged at least seven targets in each contest this season, and before last week’s disappointment, he had scored at least 12.1 DraftKings points in each game. That gives McBride the safest floor at the position.
McBride’s only issue has been a lack of touchdowns. It started last year, when he managed just two receiving scores in 16 games. He was second at the position in expected touchdowns, trailing only Travis Kelce, and no player underperformed their expected mark by a higher margin. McBride has followed that up with just one touchdown so far this season, so it’s possible the positive regression simply won’t happen.
McBride gets an interesting matchup this week vs. the Colts. On one hand, they’ve been pretty good against opposing tight ends this season. They’ve allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to the position, and they’re fifth in pass defense EPA overall.
On the other hand, this game does have a relatively high 47.5-point total. The Colts are expected to do the majority of the scoring, but it should at least be a favorable game environment.
The Colts have also played an easy schedule to date from a defensive standpoint, so it’s fair to wonder just how good their defense actually is. When they faced the Rams in Week 4, Los Angeles shredded them for more than 470 yards.
Ultimately, the positives far outweigh the negatives with McBride. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus across the industry.
Michael Mayer ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel)
Punting the tight end spot is almost always viable. If you’re not going to pay up for McBride, going all the way down to Mayer makes a ton of sense.
Mayer is a former second-round pick, though he hasn’t exactly lived up to that billing to start his career. Part of that stems from the Raiders’ decision to draft Brock Bowers in 2024. Bowers stepped in as the Raiders’ No. 1 TE immediately, which limited Mayer to backup duties.
Bowers is currently sidelined with an injury, so we should get to see more of what Mayer can do. He’s been targeted on 21% of his routes run for the year, and he has the opportunity to be more of an every-down player in Week 6.
The Raiders are also in a spot where they can do some damage. They’re taking on the Titans, who are 28th in EPA per play defensively. They’ve been poor against the run and the pass, so the Raiders should be able to put some points on the scoreboard one way or another.
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Jake Ferguson ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Ferguson has been the top tight end in fantasy this season. He’s averaged 17.2 PPR points per game, which is an absolutely elite figure. It’s the same mark as Quentin Johnston and Ja’Marr Chase, who are both tied for eighth at receiver. That means that Ferguson is essentially producing like a low-end WR1 for fantasy purposes with a TE price tag. That’s an extremely valuable combination.
Ferguson is just slightly behind McBride with a 25% target share for the year, but he’s been at 33% or greater in two of his past three games. Both of those have come with CeeDee Lamb out for most of the game, and he’ll be sidelined once again in Week 6.
Ferguson’s damage is being done around the line of scrimmage, which limits the number of big plays he can generate. However, it also results in massive upside from a reception standpoint. Ferguson has caught more than 85% of his targets for the year, and he’s caught at least seven passes in four straight games. He’s added three touchdowns over his past two contests, giving him a nice combination of floor and ceiling in PPR formats.
McBride ultimately has the highest optimal lineup rate on DraftKings at 17.5%, but Ferguson isn’t too far behind. He checks in at 14% in Sim Labs, and he comes at a significant ownership discount.
Tyler Warren ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Warren has been the other consistent producer at tight end this season. He’s averaged 13.3 PPR points per game, putting him behind just Ferguson and Darren Waller.
Warren has been one of the focal points of the Colts’ passing attack from Day 1. He owns a 21% target share, which puts him just slightly behind Michael Pittman for the team lead. His snaps and routes were slightly down last week, but that probably stems more from the game vs. the Raiders turning into a blowout than anything else. He logged a season-high 91% route participation the week prior, and he finished as the second-highest-scoring TE for the week.
Warren has ultimately finished as a top-11 scorer at the position four times this season, and he’s logged two top-three finishes. He’s fourth at the position in terms of optimal lineup rate in Week 4, and each player ahead of him is projected for more ownership. The Cardinals have also allowed the 11th-most PPR points per game to opposing TEs, so it’s a solid matchup as well.
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Hunter Long ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel)
Long is priced at the minimum on DraftKings, and min-priced TEs are always going to have some appeal in tournaments. Most tight ends derive most of their value from touchdowns, and any player who is on the field has the potential to find the paint.
Long should be on the field plenty for the Jaguars in Week 6. Starting TE Brenton Strange is expected to miss the next five weeks with an injury, leaving Long as the team’s top option at the position. Strange had a 17% target share through the first four weeks, and the team has stated that they don’t expect much of a dropoff at the position with Long taking over.
Long also gets a fantastic matchup this week vs. the Seahawks. Seattle’s secondary has been ravaged by injuries over the past few weeks, and they were just lit up by the Buccaneers’ passing attack in Week 5. Cade Otton turned five targets into four catches and 81 yards against them, so it’s a great spot for Long to make his first start of the year.
David Njoku ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
Njoku entered the year with pretty sizable expectations. He’s a top-end talent at the tight end position, and he showed some flashes with Joe Flacco under center at the end of the 2023 season. Really, he’s played well in Cleveland when anyone besides DeShaun Watson has been under center over the past few years.
Unfortunately, Flacco looked completely washed over his first four outings, which caused the team to make a switch heading into Week 5. Dillon Gabriel might not be an NFL-level starter in the long term, but he gave the Browns a solid spark against a tough Vikings’ defense. He doesn’t possess a huge arm, but he leaned heavily on his tight ends and running backs and nearly pulled off an upset.
Njoku was particularly busy. He saw a massive 32% target share with Gabriel under center, and he also saw a season high in terms of route participation. Gabriel’s limitations from an arm strength standpoint could be a major plus for Njoku and Harold Fannin overall.
Njoku’s price tag has also dipped all the way to $3,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a position-high 97% Bargain Rating. He’s an excellent buy-low target at that price tag, especially at just 5.5% projected ownership.
Jake Tonges ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Tonges stepped up for a decimated 49ers’ offense in Week 5. They were playing without Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall, while quarterback Brock Purdy was also sidelined. All but Jennings are expected to be out of the lineup once again in Week 6, and Jennings is considered a game-time decision.
Tonges ultimately saw a season-high 11 targets playing with Mac Jones, and he should be busy once again vs. the Bucs. Tampa Bay has one of the best run defenses in football, so opposing offenses have no choice but to attack them through the air. Tonges could once again be one of Jones’ favorite targets, making him a reasonable option at his current salary across the industry.
Pictured: Jake Ferguson
Photo Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
