We’ve got two title fights this weekend at UFC 320 from Las Vegas. The light heavyweight title is up for grabs in a rematch between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev, while Merab Dvalishvili attempts to defend his bantamweight crown against Cory Sandhagen.
The 14-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially at 10:00 p.m.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Magomed Ankalaev ($8,900) vs. Alex Pereira ($7,300)
This March, Alex Pereira failed in his bid for a fourth light heavyweight title defense, dropping a close decision to Magomed Ankalaev. Ankalaev was considered the last viable challenger for the dominant champion and outworked him in the championship rounds to win 48-47 on two of the three judges’ scorecards.
The most notable thing about that fight was how little either man was able to accomplish. Ankalaev went 0 for 12 on takedown attempts, while Pereira landed just three significant strikes per minute, barely over half of his typical rate. The result was the victorious Ankalev scoring just 84 DraftKings points to 35 for Pereira, a fairly disappointing DFS day.
I’d be surprised if we see that happen again. That was the fourth fight in less than a year for Pereira, who admitted to dealing with various injuries that limited his output, particularly a broken hand. He almost certainly will press the action more this time around, which could lead to a bigger score for him — or give more opportunities for Ankalev, particularly in the grappling department.
Still, I’m not sure Ankalaev justifies his price tag, and with two title fights on the slate, it’s difficult to stack them both. I’m fairly confident in Pereira outperforming his odds/price tag so I’ll be rostering him in cash games while being ahead of the field in GPPs.
However, if you don’t like the underdog here, skipping this bout entirely is probably fine. A similar result as last time wasn’t really enough for either man at their salary, and we could see a similar result this time.
Co-Main Event
Merab Dvalishvili ($9,300) vs. Cory Sandhagen ($6,900)
The far better five-round fight for DFS purposes is the bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Cory Sandhagen. Dvalishvili supplanted Pereira as the UFC’s most active champion by virtue of Pereira’s loss, and this will be his fourth title fight in 13 months.
He’s scored at least 120 DraftKings points in all of his prior title fights, as well as his lone non-title five-round fight. “The Machine” has the perfect combination of takedown ability and cardio, holding the record for most takedowns in UFC history with 97. He got there in just 15 fights, while Georges St. Pierre holds second place with 90 takedowns — in 22 contests.
Sandhagen has below-average takedown defense of 63% and was taken down five times by Umar Nurmagomedov — the same fighter Merab took down seven times. The point is, it’s an excellent matchup for the champion.
I don’t mind a stack here, though. Sandhagen lands over five significant strikes per minute and is extremely cheap. He’s also typically able to work back to his feet—four of the five takedowns from Nurmagomedov resulted in less than a minute of ground control time.
Plus, this fight is tied for the best odds on the card to go all five rounds, so Sandhagen has a reasonably strong floor. I don’t have much faith in him pulling off the upset so I won’t have much of him in GPPs, but this is a clear cash game stack.
The Easy Chalk
Ateba Gautier ($9,800)
Ateba Gautier was the heaviest favorite on the card before his opponent pulled out. While we don’t have new odds for his fight against Tre’Ston Vines ($6,400), it’s hard to see them getting any shorter for Gautier.
Gautier has two first-round knockouts in two UFC fights, with both going for around 110 points. He’s now facing an opponent in Vines, who has been knocked out in all three of his career losses on the regional scene, with all three ending in the first round.
Gautier was around -500 to score a knockout in the original matchup, so he should end up with even longer odds now. On any slate without Merab, he’d easily have the highest projections, but he checks in at #2 as it stands now.
However, with his salary as high as it is, he probably needs the knockout to come in the first 60 seconds or to score multiple knockdowns to pay off his price tag. The 110 or so points he’s picked up so far might not cut it on such a large slate. The former path is likely the more viable one for Gautier. It’s hard to pick up multiple knockdowns when your opponents are rendered unconscious by the first one, as is typically the case for the uber-powerful Gautier.
For that reason, I’m not going out of my way to afford the 23-year-old in GPPs, but he’s an elite cash game play if you have the available salary.
The Upside Plays
Edmen Shahbazyan ($9,100)
Edmen Shahbazyan was at one point the youngest fighter in the UFC and considered a future champion. Now he’s 27 with an 8-5 promotional record and seems to have settled in as a mid-level middleweight.
However, he’s a fun DFS option thanks to his typical fight outcomes. Of his eight UFC wins, six have been finishes, with five of those in the first round. He has a solid mix of both power and grappling upside, with knockdowns in three of his last four fights and an average of about half a takedown per round.
He’s taking on legendary MMA grappler Andre Muniz ($7,100), so don’t expect the takedowns to be in play for Shahbazyan. On the other hand, he’s got a great shot at knocking out “Sergipano” if he can keep it standing. The 35-year-old Brazilian has lost three of his last four, with two knockout losses. His win in that span was also a controversial split decision, so he could easily be on a four-fight losing streak.
Which explains why Shahbazyan is now a -325 favorite and -200 to get that win inside the distance. A stoppage is probably enough at his price tag to land in the optimal lineup, making him a solid, yet slightly risky play. While he won a decision in his last bout, I still have my doubts about Shahbazyan in an extended fight.
Punahele Soriano ($8,800)
The case for Soriano is very similar to the case for Shahbazyan, with Soriano’s 5-4 UFC record consisting of four knockout victories. He’s taking on Nikolay Veretenikov ($7,400), who, like Muniz, would be on a four-fight losing streak save for a split decision he may not have deserved.
Soriano is a classic high-variance fighter. He may not win all that often, but when he does, it typically comes with a huge DFS score. His lone non-KO victory saw him pick up five takedowns en route to a 170-point score, and all but one of his wins have gone for more than 120 points.
Which makes him an excellent play when he’s -325 to win, as he is this weekend. I’m slightly more confident in Soriano than Shahbazyan, since Shahbazyan is facing an opponent who at least has a clear path to victory, while I’m not sure what advantage Veretenikov realistically has here.
In a perfect world we’re able to fit both of them, but especially at cost, Soriano would be my priority.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Play
Ramiz Brahimaj ($7,000)
This is a tough week for cheap value, since every single favorite on the slate has seen the line move in their direction. One way to handle that in cash games would be to maximize how many of the cheaper favorites you fit in your lineup while ignoring the top-end fighters.
However, with the strength of some of the plays at the top, that’s not how I want to approach things. That means taking a shot on one of the cheaper fighters on the slate, even with the line moving against them. My favorite of the three-round fighters is Brahimaj, who is 2-1 with a pair of first-round finishes since returning from a long layoff due to a neck injury.
I’ve long held that the time to back fighters returning from a long absence is their second (and beyond) fight back, as the combination of ring rust and questionable health makes the first fight shaky. That’s definitely been the case for Brahimaj, who attempted just six significant strikes in a decision loss in his return.
This time he gets Austin Vanderford ($9,200), who is 1-0 in the UFC after defeating Veretenikov in his debut. While it was an impressive performance, given what we’ve seen from Veretenikov, I’m not sure how much it tells us about Vanderford.
Plus, Vanderford is known for his wrestling, while Brahimaj is a former IBJJF nogi world champion. In theory at least, that takes away Vanderford’s best weapon and gives Brahimaj at worst a strong floor, with a chance for upside if he pulls off the upset.
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The Contrarian Choice
Jakub Wiklacz ($7,000)
Speaking of grapplers, we have another matchup of two jiu-jitsu-based fighters in Jakub Wiklacz taking on Patchy Mix ($9,200) in preliminary action.
It’s the UFC debut for Wiklacz, who joins the promotion after vacating the KSW bantamweight championship earlier this year. Which is similar to the path to the promotion for Mix, who was Bellator’s 135-pound champ before jumping ship to the UFC. Mix dropped his UFC debut against Mario Bautista while attempting just one takedown, a curious approach given his typical strategy.
It’s hard to say if that was just UFC-debut jitters, or if the level of Bellator/PFL is really that much lower than the UFC. Either way, it was a very disappointing debut, with Mix absorbing 173 strikes over just 15 minutes. We have a similar conundrum with Wiklacz, a fairly dominant champion in KSW, but that’s a far cry from the Octagon.
Which makes this fight somewhat hard to judge, as both men bring considerable question marks. If the grappling cancels out, it’s tempting to back Wiklacz almost by default, given how badly Mix was outstruck by Bautista in his last match. Either way, the price on Wiklacz is far too low given how wide the range of outcomes is here, making him a strong salary-saving option.
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The Swing Fights
Jiri Prochazka ($8,500) vs. Khalil Rountree ($7,700)
The two biggest Magomed Ankalaev fans in the arena Saturday night might be Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree. Both men lost title fights to Pereira during his successful run, and both fights ending in knockout means the appetite for a rematch isn’t especially high (particularly for Prochazka, who has two losses to the Brazilian).
However, they’ve each bounced back with wins over former champion Jamahal Hill in 2025, setting up this fight as a possible number-one contender matchup should Ankalaev retain his belt.
Both men are dangerous strikers who have finished the bulk of their wins but were unable to make that strategy work against Poatan. Against each other, somebody is likely to be knocked out, and this fight has -275 odds to end inside the distance.
Rountree is the more technically sound of the two, with a classic Muay Thai style where he works behind vicious leg kicks. Prochazka is a wild man who is comfortable taking two punches to land one, trusting his chin and power to win the day. It has, outside of the fights against Pereira, but Rountree is the most dangerous other opponent he’s fought.
I was surprised that this line has grown to make Prochazka a nearly two-to-one favorite, given how similar the resumes for both men are. That probably makes Rountree the better GPP option, since that line movement likely correlates with higher ownership. However, I’m not interested in taking too firm a stance; instead, I’ll be rostering a fairly even mix of both, with close to 100% combined ownership on the pair in GPPs.
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Pictured: Magomed Ankalaev
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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