The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Caleb Williams ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
It looks like a great week to spend down at quarterback. In addition to most of the top quarterbacks being unavailable on this slate, there are also some excellent values. That includes two min-priced options who will make the start for their respective teams.
However, Williams is arguably the strongest play at the position. He’s a bit more expensive than the min-priced guys, but he makes up for it with a bit more ceiling. He’s turned in two solid starts to begin the season from a fantasy standpoint, racking up 24.2 DraftKings points vs. the Vikings and 17.98 DraftKings points vs. the Lions.
Williams’ biggest fantasy strength is his legs. While he’s not a truly elite rushing quarterback, he brings more upside on the ground than you might think. He’s averaged 5.5 rushing attempts per game this season, and he’s averaged an elite 7.7 yards per carry. He might not sustain his average of 42.5 rushing yards per game all season, but he should be able to duplicate last year’s 28.8 mark at a minimum.
Williams also gets one of the best possible matchups vs. the Cowboys. Their defense has looked toothless this season without Micah Parsons bolstering the pass rush. They were absolutely shredded by Russell Wilson last week, who threw for 450 yards and three touchdowns. It was the second-highest yardage output of his entire career, despite looking relatively washed up over the past few seasons. Ultimately, the Cowboys rank 31st in pass defense EPA so far this season, and they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
This game also features the largest total on the slate at 50.5 points, and no other game is above 46.0. Add it all up, and Williams stands out as a fantastic option.
Carson Wentz ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Mac Jones showed the power of what a min-priced QB can do for you just last week. He put together an excellent performance vs. the Saints, finishing with 22.76 DraftKings points on 279 yards and three touchdowns. He provided a Plus/Minus of +8.19, which meant you didn’t sacrifice much at the position despite loading up on high-priced players elsewhere.
Not every min-priced quarterback is going to deliver elite value, but there’s no reason to think Wentz can’t do it this week. As far as backups go, Wentz is one of the best in the business. He was once an MVP-caliber starter for the Eagles, and while he’s clearly not that guy anymore, he still has more talent than most. He also brings solid athleticism to the table, which is a major plus.
Now, Wentz gets to show what he’s capable of in an elite system. Kevin O’Connell has historically gotten the most out of whoever is under center in Minnesota. While J.J. McCarthy remains a work in progress, Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins both delivered excellent production as the team’s starter. It’s possible that Wentz could even represent a slight upgrade over McCarthy.
Wentz will get to lean on one of the best receivers in football in Justin Jefferson, and he has plenty of other solid options to work with. Even without Jordan Addison, guys like T.J. Hockenson, Adam Thielen, and Jalen Nailor are solid complementary pieces.
Finally, the matchup vs. the Bengals is excellent. Their defense was an absolute disaster last season, and they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers. They don’t figure to be much better this year, so Wentz could definitely deliver a Jones-like performance in Week 3.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
From a ceiling standpoint, no one on this slate can touch Hurts. Josh Allen played on Thursday this week, while Lamar Jackson will take the field on Monday. Jayden Daniels has already been ruled out for the Commanders, while Joe Burrow could miss up to three months with an injury. That leaves Hurts as the last man standing on the main slate.
Hurts hasn’t had the greatest start to the year from a passing standpoint, but he’s still delivering some of the best rushing upside in football. He’s already punched in three touchdowns on the ground to go along with 38.5 rushing yards per game. Until the tush push is inevitably banned, injury is the only thing that can stop Hurts from getting to double-digit rushing scores.
Hurts should also improve as a passer moving forward. His volume wasn’t great last season, but he was as efficient as ever. He averaged 8.42 adjusted yards per attempt, which was tied for the best mark of his career. He still has some of the best weapons in football at his disposal, so it’s only a matter of time before those guys get more involved.
Perhaps that will start in Week 3. The Eagles are taking on the Rams in a game that is expected to be pretty competitive. The Eagles might not be able to just ride their run game to a victory like they have in the past two weeks. Los Angeles has been tough defensively to start the year, but Hurts still has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models by roughly two full points.
Daniel Jones ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Are you buying the “Indiana Jones” breakout? I’m still not 100% sold, but the early returns have been extremely promising. Jones has led the Colts to seven scoring drives in each of their first two games, and their offense is currently first in yards per game. They’re “merely” fourth in points, so if anything, they’ve been a bit unlucky from a scoring standpoint.
Jones has been a big part of their success. He’s been highly efficient as a passer, averaging a remarkable 9.97 adjusted yards per attempt. He has two touchdown passes to zero interceptions, and he’s averaged just under 300 passing yards per game.
Jones is also a plus-athlete at the position, and he’s put his rushing ability on display through the first two weeks. He’s scored three times with his legs, and while that’s probably not sustainable, he could make up for it with more yardage. He’s averaged just 14.0 rushing yards through the first two weeks, which is well below his career average of 30.0.
Jones’ advanced metrics also look favorable. He ranks fifth at the position in EPA + CPOE composite, putting him between Allen and Justin Herbert. If that’s the type of company that Jones keeps all season, he has the potential to be a league-winner.
While Jones has been priced up aggressively on FanDuel, he remains priced at a major discount on DraftKings. His $5,400 salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating, which is tied for the best mark at the position.
Marcus Mariota ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Mariota is the other min-priced starter this week. He’ll take over for Daniels in Washington, and we’ve seen what he can do in this offense previously. He didn’t make any starts for the Commanders last season, but he played extensively in relief of Daniels in two games. His stat lines in both contests were extremely impressive:
- Week 7 vs. Panthers: 18-23, 205 passing yards, two touchdowns, 34 rushing yards
- Week 18 at Cowboys: 15-18, 161 passing yards, two touchdowns, 56 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown
If I had told you those were Daniels’ numbers in those contests, you probably wouldn’t have batted an eye. He is perfectly suited to step into the Commanders’ offense without having to change much of the game plan.
Mariota gets a solid matchup this week vs. the Raiders, who currently rank 24th in pass defense EPA. Even without Daniels, the Commanders are still listed as 2.5-point home favorites. Their 23-point implied team total is smack-dab in the middle of the slate, but Mariota still carries plenty of upside. Only Williams is showing up with a higher optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
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Justin Herbert ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Is Herbert poised for a career season? It’s a distinct possibility. This is arguably the best situation he’s been in as an NFL quarterback, combining a solid group of pass-catchers with an established head coach.
Herbert has put together two fantastic performances to start the year. He racked up more than 30 DraftKings points vs. the Chiefs in Week 1, and while his volume wasn’t nearly as high in Week 2, he was still highly efficient. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 242 yards and two scores, and he added at least 31 rushing yards for the second straight game.
Herbert’s matchup vs. the Broncos isn’t great on paper. They were one of the best defenses in football last season, and they allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. However, they haven’t looked nearly as dominant so far this season, despite starting things off with a cupcake matchup vs. the Titans. Ultimately, Herbert could end up being a bit overlooked.
Dak Prescott ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Prescott is a very interesting pivot off Williams in tournaments. Most people are going to look to stack the Bears in that contest, but Dallas is actually favored. That gives them the top implied team total on the slate at 26.0 points.
Prescott has historically been at his best when laying points, averaging a +2.71 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). He hasn’t been quite as good on the road, but he still brings plenty of upside to the table.
The Cowboys’ passing attack has looked crisp through two weeks, despite the team losing the most passing yards due to drops in Week 1. The Bears’ defense is merely 30th in pass defense EPA through the first two weeks, so it’s a solid spot for Prescott to build on his early success.
C.J. Stroud ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
It’s getting harder and harder to believe in Stroud. He lit the world on fire as a rookie, but he has been a well-below-average fantasy quarterback since then. He’s merely QB26 in terms of fantasy scoring through the first two weeks.
That’s caused his salary to dip to just $6,700 on FanDuel, and he has some buy-low appeal at that figure. His Bargain Rating is tied for the top mark at the position on FanDuel, and he has historically fared well against the Jaguars. He’s averaged 23.84 FanDuel points in four starts vs. Jacksonville, and he’s returned positive value in three of them. It’s possible that Jacksonville’s defense is improved in 2025, but they surrendered 302 net passing yards to Burrow and Jake Browning last week. Stroud is projected for less than 3% ownership on FanDuel, making him an excellent leverage option.
Pictured: Caleb Williams
Photo Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
