It was a relatively low-scoring Week 1 to start the 2025 season, but two outstanding primetime contests on Sunday and Monday Night Football saved us. The Bills and Ravens played an absolute classic in Buffalo, while J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns to come back and beat the Bears.
Hopefully, we’ll pick up right where we left off on Thursday. We have another excellent matchup on tap, with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Washington Commanders. Both teams have big expectations this season, and both teams started the year with decisive victories against division rivals. The Packers are currently listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 48.5.
Let’s dive into the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
While the Packers are the favorites in this contest, the Commanders have the best fantasy asset. Jayden Daniels took the league by storm as a rookie, leading his team all the way to the NFC Championship Game while posting some outstanding fantasy numbers. He was the No. 5 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game, and that number likely would’ve been higher if not for a mid-season injury. He scored at least 19.9 fantasy points in 12 contests, and he was a top-five scorer at the position in seven different weeks.
Daniels brings elite rushing upside to the position. He averaged more than 52 rushing yards per game last season, and he added six rushing scores. He picked up right where he left off in Week 1, racking up 68 rushing yards in his win over the Giants.
Daniels was also efficient through the air in Week 1. He averaged 8.43 adjusted yards per attempt, finishing with 233 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions.
Daniels’ overall fantasy output was slightly disappointing – his 20.08 DraftKings points resulted in a negative Plus/Minus – but that was due primarily to the one total touchdown. The Commanders had two scores on the ground, so the touchdowns simply didn’t break in his favor vs. the Giants. Ultimately, Daniels still profiles as a high-end fantasy QB1 for the rest of the season.
Unfortunately, he’s going to face a brutal defense on Thursday. The Packers were ferocious in their win over the Lions to start the year, despite Micah Parsons playing a limited number of snaps. They only allowed one touchdown to an elite Lions’ offense, and it didn’t come until garbage time. The defense should only improve as Parsons gets more acclimated, so this could be one of the toughest matchups Daniels faces all season.
That said, Daniels is still getting plenty of love in our projections. He ranks first on the slate in median and ceiling projection, and he’s tops in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Josh Jacobs had an average outing in his first game of the year. He finished with 14.0 DraftKings points, despite the fact that he scored a touchdown. He turned 19 carries into just 66 yards, good for an average of just 3.5 yards per attempt.
The good news is, there will undoubtedly be better days in Jacobs’ future. He’s one of the league’s true workhorse backs, and he garnered 83% of the team’s designed rush attempts last week. Backup RBs Emanuel Wilson and Chris Books had just one carry apiece, and Wilson’s didn’t come until the final drive of the game.
The Commanders’ defense looked solid in their first performance of the season, but it has to be taken with a grain of salt. Russell Wilson and the Giants figure to be one of the worst offensive teams in football this year, so we’ll see if the Commanders can keep it up. They weren’t particularly good last year, ranking 27th in rush defense EPA.
This also stands out as another strong spot for Jacobs from a game script perspective. He’s done extremely well with the Packers as a favorite, averaging a +4.53 Plus/Minus on 13 occasions (per the Trends tool).
Jacobs might not possess the same elite ceiling as some of the best running backs in football, but he has a rock-solid floor.
The Packers really didn’t need Jordan Love to do much in their first game. He was limited to just 22 pass attempts, but he was hyper-efficient with his opportunities. He completed 72.7% of his passes for 188 yards and two scores, good for an average of 10.36 adjusted yards per attempt.
Love has displayed plenty of raw ability since taking over as the Packers’ starting QB. He was slightly disappointing last year, but he was downright elite down the stretch in 2023. If they’re going to make a deep run in the playoffs this season, they’re going to need Love to recapture that form.
The Commanders were also exploitable in the passing game last season, ranking 22nd in pass defense EPA. They made some additions this offseason, but how much they’ve improved remains to be seen.
Ultimately, Love ranks second only to Daniels in median and ceiling projection.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Terry McLaurin was a holdout to start training camp, but he ended up getting a new deal before the start of the year. He was the clear WR1 for Daniels in 2024, posting a 23% target share and 39% air yards share. He finished with 1,096 yards and a career-best 13 touchdowns, and he finished as WR7 in terms of PPR scoring.
However, McLaurin has a bit more competition for targets this year. The team brought in Deebo Samuel this offseason, and they made a concerted effort to get him the ball in Week 1. As a result, McLaurin finished with just four targets, good for a paltry 14% target share.
The good news is that McLaurin also got off to a slow start last season. He averaged just 4.0 catches and 19.5 yards per game through his first two contests before erupting over the final 16 weeks. There’s no reason he can’t do it again this season. He still figures to be the team’s No. 1 option overall, and he’s their clear big-play threat. He still led the team in air yards in Week 1, so this stands out as a solid buy-low opportunity.
Speaking of Deebo, his workload in Week 1 was extremely encouraging. He racked up 10 targets, which is a number he saw infrequently with the 49ers. He had just 10 targets in one of 15 games last year, and he did it merely twice in 2023.
Samuel also remained a factor in the run game. He had one carry, which he converted into a 19-yard touchdown. He might be used quite as often in that department as he was with the 49ers, but the fact that his carry came in the red zone is a positive overall. The Commanders lack a true “goal line hammer,” so Samuel could potentially fill that void.
Ultimately, we have Deebo projected for more fantasy points than McLaurin in this spot, despite checking in at a slightly cheaper salary. Both players will have to navigate tough matchups, but Samuel gets the edge in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
While the Commanders have a clear top two at receiver, the Packers’ situation is a bit murkier. However, Jayden Reed appears to be their top option. He was a bit banged up heading into last week, which ultimately limited him to just a 52% route participation. He was at 73% the year prior, so he could improve on that mark moving forward.
When Reed was in the pattern, he was a clear focal point in the passing attack. He earned a target on a whopping 42% of his routes run, and his 23% target share was the top mark on the team. His overall production doesn’t jump off the page – five targets, three catches, 45 yards, and a touchdown – but he has the potential for a much bigger performance with a larger workload vs. the Commanders. Reed also has an elite +0.61 correlation with his quarterback, making him an ideal stacking partner.
Matthew Golden was the Packers’ first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he was expected to contend for the No. 1 receiver spot right out of the gates. However, his usage in Week 1 suggests we might want to pump the brakes a bit. He was on the field for just 57% of the team’s passing plays, and he finished with a 9% target share. Golden’s average depth of target (aDOT) was also just 5.0 yards, so he managed just 4% of the team’s air yards.
Golden still has plenty of upside moving forward – there’s a reason he was a first-round pick – but it could take some time for him to grow into his role. He’s a risky option vs. the Commanders, but he’s also projected for less than 20% ownership.
The Commanders are currently employing a committee situation in their backfield. They used three running backs in Week 1, though Jeremy McNichols didn’t see the field until the fourth quarter. Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Austin Ekeler handled most of the opportunities, and both players bring different skill sets to the table.
Croskey-Merritt handled 40% of the carries, and he turned his 10 carries into 82 yards. While he’s not going to be that efficient each week, the fact that he scored a rushing touchdown is great news for his fantasy prospects. If he can handle the goal line work moving forward, he’ll have a chance to be fantasy viable.
Ekeler had six carries, but he also chipped in his usual production in the passing game. He was on the field in the vast majority of passing situations, and he caught all three of his targets for 31 yards. While that’s not the sexiest workload, it has value in PPR formats.
From a game script perspective, this matchup seems to suit Ekeler more than Croskey-Merritt. The Commanders are underdogs, and Ekeler has averaged roughly two additional PPR points per game in that split. His average Plus/Minus increases to +1.72 as an underdog, and he has the superior projections in our NFL Models.
The tight ends round out this price range, and Zach Ertz is one of the most undervalued options at the position currently. He was on the field for more than 80% of the Commanders’ passing attempts in Week 1, and he was the only tight end on the roster to see a target. He ultimately finished with a 17% target share vs. the Giants, including a look around the goal line.
Ertz was an extremely reliable producer for the Commanders last season, and nothing appears to have changed for 2025. He’s underpriced at $5,800.
Tucker Kraft also appears undervalued. He had a route participation just shy of 80% in Week 1, and he finished with an 18% target share. He was targeted on 22% of his routes run, including one end zone target.
The Packers have a lot of competition for targets, but Kraft is definitely in the mix. He has the best projected Plus/Minus of all players in this price range, and he’s fifth on the slate overall.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers are showing up as the better values in our NFL Models, and Brandon McManus has the highest optimal lineup rates of the group in Sim Labs.
- Romeo Doubs ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Doubs may eventually fall down the pecking order at receiver in Green Bay, but his role appears pretty safe for the time being. He led the team in routes in Week 1, and he finished with an 18% target share and 36% air yards share. He simply should not be this much cheaper than Golden.
- Dontayvion Wicks ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Wicks is the clear No. 4 in the rotation at the moment. He had just a 39% route participation in Week 1, though he was targeted on 22% of his routes run. Wicks also had a high TPRR in 2024, so he at least makes the most of his time on the field.
- Noah Brown ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Brown was more involved than expected for the Commanders against the Giants. He had a 57% route participation, and he was targeted on 14% of his routes run. He’s another reasonable option in this price range.
- Luke Musgrave ($2,400 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Musgrave was once considered the Packers’ TE of the future, but he has been completely usurped by Kraft. He was on the field for just 17% of the team’s passing plays last week, and he earned just one target.
- Emanuel Wilson ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Wilson had just one carry last week, and it didn’t come until there was less than a minute left in the game. He’s not a factor at the moment.
- Jaylin Lane ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Lane was on the field as the Commanders’ No. 4 receiver in Week 1, logging a route on roughly 30% of the team’s pass plays. That’s not much, but it’s at least something.
- Chris Brooks ($400 DraftKings, $1,200 FanDuel) – Brooks is the more appealing of the Packers’ backup RBs. He had a 19% snap share last week, and he saw some non-garbage-time work in the passing game.
Pictured: Jayden Daniels
Photo Credit: Imagn
