The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($9,200) San Diego Padres (-173) vs. San Francisco Giants
The afternoon slate on Thursday features two pitchers who should garner most of the slate’s ownership, the first of those being Cease. He’s been a frustrating option for DFS this season, with a 4.61 ERA but a 30% strikeout rate. That means some drastically inconsistent fantasy scores, with three of his last six starts going for at least 23 points and the other three going for 13.1 or fewer.
The matchup with the Giants doesn’t give us many hints on which version of Cease we’re likely to get tonight. They rank 14th in strikeout rate and 18th in wRC+ against righties, both roughly league average. That makes it essentially equally likely we get the good version of cease or the weaker one.
On the plus side, his underlying ERA indicators are in the mid threes, so he “should” be much better in run prevention than his ERA indicates. Plus this game is at home, where his actual ERA is a much better 3.61. That’s probably not a coincidence, since San Diego has one of the best Park Factors for pitchers in the league.
That’s enough to make him the best option on the smallish slate. He leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection and is second in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Sean Manaea ($8,100) New York Mets (-142) at Washington Nationals
The other pitcher around whom chalk is likely to form is Manaea. He’s the only starter with a better Pts/Sal projection than Cease, with his Mets traveling to Washington to take on the Nationals.
He’s effectively an arbitrage version of Cease, with a high strikeout rate but also an elevated ERA. Like Cease, his ERA indicators are also a good bit lower than his actual ERA, with just a 3.29 SIERA. Unlike Cease, he actually has slightly better numbers on the road, but that’s probably just noise since his home ballpark (and Nationals Park) has a fairly average Park Factors.
He does have a solid matchup, though, with the Nationals ranking in the bottom 10 against left-handed pitching with a top-10 strikeout rate. That’s enough to tip the scales in Manaea’s favor, especially relative to his $8,100 salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($7,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-274) at Colorado Rockies
For the last time this season, we get the challenge of deciding whether or not to roster a Dodgers starter at Coors Field. We’ve had mixed results so far, with some strong starts and some poor ones, including Shohei Ohtani getting shelled for five runs over four innings yesterday.
The good news for Kershaw is that the Rockies are on the wrong side of their platoon splits against lefties, so he has the matchup edge here. He also fits the profile of a pitcher who should do well at Coors much better than Ohtani. Kershaw’s 49.8% ground ball rate is much higher than Ohtani’s 36% mark, which in retrospect was probably a good reason not to roster him yesterday.
The Rockies’ 4.7 run implied total is probably enough to keep ownership low on Kershaw, making him an interesting pivot from the chalk pitchers at the top of our projections. With the six-game slate being on the smaller side, that’s an important consideration.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
It’s also the last chance we’ll have to roster the Dodgers bats at Coors Field, though they’ve been largely disappointing this series. They’ve scored just two runs in two of the three games this week — though sandwiched between those games was an 11-run blowup.
Today they’re taking on Chase Dollander ($5,000), a 23-year-old righty with a 6.43 ERA through 17 big league starts and underlying numbers in the mid-fives. Those are pretty rough numbers, and he’s a low-strikeout, high-fly-ball pitcher—not a great profile for Coors Field.
With Ohtani day-to-day after being hit by a ball up the middle while pitching yesterday, we also have the chance to get the top five bats in the Dodgers lineup for less than $30,000 combined salary. While they still aren’t cheap, that makes it slightly easier to afford the stack.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Maikel Garcia 3B ($4,800) Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
We saw a taste of the old Patrick Corbin ($6,700) in his last start, as the Rangers lefty gave up seven runs while recording just seven outs against the Blue Jays. All in all, he’s settled in as a below-average (but not terrible) starter on the year, with the Royals implied for 4.7 runs tonight.
Given the team’s splits against lefties, a good chunk of that production should come from Garcia. He stands out in PlateIQ:
I wouldn’t say he’s underpriced for his projection necessarily, but he’s fairly priced for a player with his upside — he has 22 steals and 12 home runs to go with his .326 average against southpaws.
Hunter Goodman C ($5,200) Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)
Given the high totals in Colorado tonight, lineups without Kershaw — and possibly even with him — should have some exposure to the Rockies. While they hit lefties poorly as a team, Goodman has an identical wRC+ against lefties and righties, with more power but a lower average against southpaws.
That makes him my top choice from the Rockies, as he’s in a position to still perform well even against the Dodgers bullpen. A bullpen that’s had to work hard already this series and could be stretched a bit thin tonight.
That’s why I’m considering rostering Goodman (or another Colorado bat) with Kershaw, as it’s a unique way to build that could pay off if Colorado beats up the Dodgers bullpen for a second straight game.
Nick Kurtz 1B ($6,000) Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins (Jose Urena)
The A’s have the second-highest team total on the slate today, with a 5.0-run mark on the road in Minnesota. Much of that is due to the matchup with Jose Urena ($5,500), who has a 4.06 ERA but an xERA in the sevens on the season.
Kurtz is the AL rookie of the year frontrunner, hitting .313 with 25 home runs through 86 games. Some of that is due to his home games in Sacramento, where he has 15 of those home runs, but he’s still been a revelation for the A’s.
He and the rest of their lineup are a way to hunt upside without paying Dodgers’ prices, and they’re an interesting alternate stack today.
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Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo Credit: Getty Images
