Rookie hype gets out of control every fantasy season. You start out thinking you’re getting a sleeper in Round 10, and by draft day, that same guy’s going in the sixth. Sometimes it works out. Most of the time, it doesn’t.
We lined up season-long format ADP with projections from Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon. Some of these rookies look like league winners. Others are more likely to wreck your season.
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Rookies Who Could Pop
Ashton Jeanty – RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Nobody is shocked to see Ashton Jeanty on this list. He just had one of the best college football seasons of all time, racking up 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns for Boise State. The Raiders took him sixth overall, and he’s already going as a first-round pick in fantasy drafts. Despite being a rookie, there are grounds for optimism.
Jeanty has the tools to hit right away. He runs with power, catches passes, and has the backfield all to himself in Las Vegas. With Geno Smith at quarterback and one of the worst receiving groups in the sport, the offense is built to run through him.
The upside is clear. He was second in the Heisman voting, he’s projected as a top-five fantasy RB, and he has no real competition for touches in Vegas. If he stays healthy, Jeanty should rank among the league leaders in volume as a rookie. No need to overthink this one. Our experts think Jeanty’s rookie hype is fully justified…even if he plays for the Raiders.
Tetairoa McMillan – WR, Carolina Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan enters the league with real pedigree. He was the first receiver off the board in a draft class that didn’t have a clear-cut WR1, going eighth overall to Carolina. He dominated at Arizona and racked up over 1,300 yards and 130 targets in his final season. Even when defenses knew the ball was coming his way, he kept delivering.
There are questions about how his game translates, especially when it comes to separation. McMillan isn’t known for sharp route running, but his size and wingspan help him win contested catches. He thrives over the middle, and that fits with what Bryce Young does best. Short throws and intermediate routes make up most of Young’s game, and that’s exactly where McMillan was used in college.
His current ADP puts him ahead of more established wideouts like Xavier Worthy, DJ Moore, and DeVonta Smith, which is a little rich given the uncertainty that always follows a first-year pass-catcher. Carolina ranked 23rd in scoring last year, and there’s no guarantee the offense takes a big leap. But in full-PPR setups, he looks more appealing. He’s being drafted later there and fits well as a volume-based WR3.
There’s risk, but also plenty to like. McMillan steps into a receiver room with almost no competition for targets. If you’re drafting for ceiling in PPR, there’s a real path for him to deliver. If you’re expecting splashy numbers early, however, you might want to look elsewhere.
Tyler Warren – TE, Indianapolis Colts
Tyler Warren is getting drafted around TE10, which puts him in the middle of the late-round dart throw tier. He’s going just ahead of Colston Loveland, Dalton Kincaid, and Jonnu Smith. He’s still a few spots behind established vets like Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, and David Njoku, but the gap could close fast.
The Colts have been a black hole at tight end for years. Since 2020, they’ve ranked near the bottom of the league in targets, receptions, and fantasy points from the position. Warren walks into a perfect storm of opportunity with the potential to start right away and a quarterback (be it Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones) who leans on short-area throws.
Warren broke out at Penn State with over 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final season. He can line up in the slot, in-line, or even in the backfield. With Shane Steichen calling plays, Warren could rack up volume whether the offense clicks or not.
You won’t need to spend much to get him. And if he sees 70+ targets, which is within his range of outcomes, that might be enough to crack the top eight by season’s end. If you’re punting tight end, Warren makes for a strong fallback plan as a rookie.
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Rookies Who Could Flop
Cam Ward – QB, Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward was the No. 1 overall pick, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to help your fantasy team right away. He’s being drafted as QB22, ahead of veterans like Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith, which seems a little aggressive. Koerner has Ward ranked as QB25, while Raybon slots him in as the QB26. The Titans had one of the worst offenses in the league last year, and Ward is stepping into the same setup with a new playbook and a very questionable supporting cast.
Ward flashed some upside in college, ranking top five in yards per attempt and big-time throw rate. But he also finished outside the top 30 in clean-pocket accuracy and struggled under pressure. The offensive line in Tennessee might improve, but it’s still far from reliable, and there’s no clear alpha in the receiving corps to help carry the load. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett are approximately 140 years old combined.
He may have spike weeks, but the touchdowns might not come often enough to justify his price. The Titans have the 28th-ranked implied point total for 2025, and that drags down his ceiling. Ward belongs on Superflex and 2QB rosters only. In 1QB leagues, you’re probably better off streaming.
Emeka Egbuka – WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka is going off the board around WR48, but Koerner has him slotted at WR59. That gap says a lot about how expectations may be getting ahead of reality. He’s been impressive in camp and has a solid college resume, but his short-term path to consistent fantasy production is murky. Tampa Bay’s receiver room is loaded, and the rookie may be stuck behind veterans for most of the season.
He played nearly all of his college snaps in the slot, and that’s where the Bucs are currently using him. The problem is, Chris Godwin already occupies that role. Godwin’s returning from injury, but unless he’s sidelined or shifted outside more often, it’s hard to see Egbuka getting enough looks to make a huge difference in redraft formats. He’s been practicing at both the Z and slot, but Jalen McMillan is also in the mix, which complicates things even further.
Egbuka’s polish and intelligence make him an attractive long-term bet, and he’s flashed in OTAs and minicamp. But even with a glowing scouting report, his upside in 2025 may be limited to Best Ball spike weeks or benefiting from injuries to others. People are drafting him based on profile, not opportunity.
There’s still some stash appeal late in drafts, especially in full PPR, but managers expecting an Amon-Ra breakout in Year 1 may be disappointed. Barring a shake-up in the depth chart, Egbuka looks like a bench option who may be dropped and re-added throughout the season. His time will come, but it might not be this fall.
Travis Hunter – WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Hunter is being drafted as WR29, but Koerner has him ranked four spots lower at WR33. That might not seem like a huge gap, but for a rookie playing both sides of the ball, it matters. Hunter is a freak athlete and a fun story, but he’s still developing as a wide receiver. Betting on immediate efficiency is risky.
His usage profile sounds better than it might play out. Even with a projected 80% snap share, it’s unclear how much volume he’ll command week to week. Brian Thomas Jr. may be the alpha in the offense, and Jacksonville’s overall pass-game consistency is always a question. Hunter might need to score touchdowns to make lineups, which is always hard to rely on.
Hunter did flash in college when given a full route tree, averaging nearly 20 PPR points in those spots. But the sample size was small, and his primary focus was still on defense. The NFL is a different animal, and even great college athletes sometimes struggle with the jump in route precision, timing, and physicality at the line.
There’s a lot to like long-term, but redraft value could swing wildly. If he gets pushed into heavy outside usage, his lack of polish might show early. He’s worth drafting, but WR29 might be a touch high for a player with this much uncertainty. It wouldn’t be shocking if he starts slow while adjusting to the pro game.
Final Word
Some of these rookies will swing leagues. Others will swing your chances right into the dumpster. If you’re going to bet on upside, make sure the projections at least like the idea, too.
Pictured: Ashton Jeanty
Photo Credit: Imagn
