The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Trey Mancini ($3,400): First Baseman/Outfielder, Baltimore Orioles
There are only three games to look forward to on the evening slate, leaving Trey Mancini straddling an appealing line. The Orioles first baseman/outfielder is listed as the top Projected Plus/Minus leader while also ranking near the top of THE BAT X ceiling projections at DraftKings.
Mancini is swinging a hot bat, recording hits in three of his past four games, with two of the four knocks going for extra bases. Sustained production is supported analytically as the former eighth-round pick remains well below expected values. Mancini has put together a 44.0% hard-hit rate and 11.0% barrel rate, leading to a .551 expected slugging percentage, above his actual mark of .427. That leaves the O’s slugger plenty of runway to elevate his play over the coming games.
White Sox probable starter Johnny Cueto has been victimized at times this season, giving up a 40.0% hard-hit rate and home runs in three of his past four starts. Cueto is a contact pitcher, and that’s good news for Mancini and the Orioles.
Mancini isn’t the lowest salary available, but he comes with a tremendous amount of upside. He’s a bargain worth rostering on the evening slate at DK.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
A.J. Pollock ($2,800): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
Take note — FanDuel isn’t offering any evening slates on the Thursday docket, so you’ll have to include A.J. Pollock as part of your All-Day lineup if you hope to take advantage of his bargain value.
Pollock is riding-high coming into tonight’s contest, stringing together a modest four-game hit streak, with hits in 12 of his last 13 games. Over that stretch, Pollock has 21 hits and has elevated his season-long slugging percentage from .349 to .397. Still, the White Sox outfielder remains short of his .481 expected slugging percentage, implying further progression is anticipated.
The former All-Star should continue his assault against the Orioles, who are sending Dean Kremer to the bump on Thursday night. Although Kremer has looked good this season, he has yet to face a top-hitting team, with all three of his starts coming against teams who sit in the bottom half of the league in on-base plus slugging percentage.
Pollock and the White Sox could offer a rude wake-up call to Kremer as they look to build off their recent surge in offense. His elite Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary projections make Pollock one of the top bargains on FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Joe Musgrove ($9,900 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
We need to talk about the Cy Young caliber season Joe Musgrove is having. The San Diego Padres ace is a perfect 8-0 with a sterling 1.59 earned run average, allowing 0.92 walks and hits per inning pitched. With numbers like that, it’s no surprise he’s leading our ceiling projections on tonight’s slate.
Musgrove has been unhittable this season, ranking in the 85th percentile or better in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and expected earned run average. Moreover, Musgrove comes into tonight’s NL showdown against the Phillies in fine form.
The former first-round selection has struck out 17 batters over his past 13.0 innings for a 16.9 K/9 rate. More impressively, he’s given up just two earned runs over his past 21.0 innings pitched with ten hits and six walks. That equals 0.86 earned run average and 0.76 walks and hits per inning pitched.
No one can figure out Musgrove right now, let alone a Phillies team that is 0-3 with five runs scored and 18 hits over their recent stretch. Our ceiling projections might not do Musgrove justice as he looks to maintain his stellar play.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker has climbed to lofty new heights over his recent sample; however, he’s not completed his ascent up the hitting ranks. We’re expecting big things from Tucker, who leads our ceiling projections tonight.
Tucker’s 15-game hitting streak was recently snapped, but he’s still managed to get on base in 18 of his past 19 games. In doing so, he’s elevated his on-base plus slugging percentage to .837, thanks partly to more productive at-bats.
The former first-round selection has five home runs and four doubles since the start of June, accounting for nearly half of his 20 hits. Still, he remains below his expected slugging percentage of .591, suggesting that he remains a progression candidate over his coming sample.
According to our projections, that growth should continue against the Yankees on Thursday night. The left-handed batting Tucker can take advantage of the short porch in right field, contributing to his top-ranked ceiling on the main slates.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the White Sox. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
You can count Pollock amongst the White Sox stacks that dominate our lineup projections tonight. We’ve landed on the top five hitters in the batting order as the ideal stacking combination against the Orioles.
Tim Anderson is the prototypical leadoff man, and he continues to deliver outstanding results. The former Silver Slugger is the team leader in on-base plus slugging percentage, cashing 27 times in 42 games with eight stolen bags.
He’s followed by Andrew Vaughn, who has been nearly as impressive in the two spot. Vaughn sits second in on-base plus slugging percentage, ranking in the top five in runs scored and batted in.
Both players are table setters for Luis Robert and Jose Abreu, who sit one-two in runs, runs batted in, and hits, with Abreu also leading the way with nine homers. Both players serve as offensive catalysts and have been mashing the ball over their recent samples, riding a cumulative 22-game hitting streak into tonight’s contest.
The White Sox have unlocked a winning combination with the top half of their order, and they project as the top stacking option at home against the Orioles.
