Everyone knows that a solo home run is worth 14 points on DraftKings and 6 points on FanDuel. Everyone also knows that there is no greater feeling in DFS than watching one of your players jack a tater right before your eyes. That feeling is difficult to describe. Of course, a home run narrated by Michael Kay (“See Ya!”) is more valuable than a home run narrated by Hawk Harrelson (“You can put it on the board…Yes!!”). Often times, the feelings of DFS players are neglected when discussing the ups and downs of the industry. For example, how happy should one be during each home run? Is distance of a home run a driving factor (pun intended) in measuring the attitude of a DFS player?
Let’s set the scene: it’s Wednesday night and your wife got off work early. She has been begging you to go on a couple’s date for weeks now. There is a new spot in town that hosts a class where you paint and simultaneously indulge in cocktails. Sounds fun, right?
You are coming off a huge Monday and a lackluster Tuesday and you need to right the ship. There are GPPs galore tonight and you will be damned if you let some double-date ruin your night. You tell your wife you had a nasty spill down the stairs this morning and might have suffered a possible spinal cord injury. It is best to lay low on the couch and rest. Besides, the DirecTV guy just hooked up your third 60″ TV with MLB Extra Innings. You could go butcher a portrait of the Mona Lisa and suffer, with every brush stroke, the awkward conversations that undoubtedly occur on a couple’s date. Or you could slam some Goldschläger and watch every single at-bat of the entire night like a normal human being.
Now, when binge-watching MLB games, you obviously root for the home run. You need the home run. But does it matter how far the home run travels? For instance, is a 450-foot home run more valuable than a 410-foot home run? Let’s check out every home run hit this season and see if there is a correlation between home run distance and happiness.
There is an actual benefit that comes along with moonshot home runs, too. Out of the top 15 farthest home runs of the season, a vast majority come from hitters who are no strangers to home runs. Alex Rodriguez, Giancarlo Stanton, Edwin Encarnacion, Adrian Gonzalez, Bryce Harper, Prince Fielder, and Nelson Cruz have all launched four-baggers in the top 15 for distance. Of course, there are always a few outliers: Steven Souza Jr. hit his first home run of the year 463 feet. This data implies that, generally, the longer the home run, the more home runs you can expect from that player.
Luckily, you rostered Giancarlo Stanton tonight. He has four of the top 10 farthest home runs this season. You are bound for glory. Stanton is up in the bottom of the third against Alex Wood. He has a 14.28 at bat per home run rate vs. lefties in his career. Part of you feels bad that you blew your wife off for the fifth consecutive week in a row. Whatever. These tournaments aren’t going to cash themselves. BOOM! Stanton drives one to deep center – a no-doubter! Your happiness level is through the roof, as proven by the scatter plot above. You immediately run to your roof to celebrate at the highest point realistically attainable at the moment, shouting that you are the greatest DFS legend who ever lived. Who cares that your wife pulls into the driveway shaking her head, disgusted, presumably at your magically healed spinal cord. 477 feet. 100% happiness.
Remember, happiness is an important factor in DFS and there are endless variables that factor in to your well-being. These variables can sometimes be the most unexpected – longer home runs can have predictive information about a player. Turns out that Stanton home run just binked you your first GPP. Congratulations – you live to fight another day. Before you go to bed, however, you decide to take a quick trip to the garage. You can’t risk your wife getting off work early again, so you siphon enough fuel from her car to where she has to fill up on the way to work. Gasoline, Goldschläger – what’s the difference? She will be late to work which will guarantee you your Thursday night freedom. Just as you are finishing up, you catch a glimpse of an object in the trashcan. You turn it over only to find a margarita-stained portrait of Mona Lisa that looks identical to the girl from The Ring.
It was all worth it.