Yahooooo! There are 12 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Ravens and Raiders are on bye.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Jalen Hurts ($33) @ Detroit Lions
Hurts may or may not be a good real-life quarterback, but he’s an amazing fantasy option. He’s averaged a +8.15 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations in all of his games this season. He’s scored at least 20 DraftKings points in every contest. While the passing numbers are volatile (two games over 300 yards and three games under 200 yards), it’s the rushing prowess that provides such a high floor. Hurts has rushed at least seven times in every game with two games over 10.
Hurts gets a matchup against a Lions team that is 27th in pass defense DVOA on the fast track of Ford Field. The Vegas Dashboard has the Eagles implied for a healthy 25.5 points, and the spread is only 3.5, so it should be a competitive affair with offensive production.
Top Value
Taylor Heinicke ($24) @ Denver Broncos
The Vegas Dashboard has this game with a total of 44, and the Football Team only implied for 20.5 points. Yuck. The Football Team wants to run, as they are 19th in pass rate, so this game could be a slogfest. That said, it’s within the range of outcomes that this game goes back and forth. Denver is fifth in offensive pace and 10th in pass rate. The Football Team has struggled in the secondary and is 29th in pass defense DVOA.
Heinicke has gone over 20 DraftKings points in four games this season. The Broncos used to have a stout defense, but they are 24th in pass-defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted sack rate. Heinicke also has some rushing chops as he’s carried the ball at least five times in four games with a high of 10 for 95 yards last week.
Top Tournament Play
Jameis Winston ($28) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who in their right mind is rostering Winston this week? *Sheepishly raises hand* On any given Sunday, Winston can throw four interceptions. On any given Sunday, Winston can also throw four touchdowns. After being shackled by Sean Payton in the 20 to 23 passing attempt range, he’s “unleashed” him for 30 and 35 attempts in the last two weeks. Winston may get closer to 40 attempts this week.
The Buccaneers have one of the best run defenses in the league (fourth in DVOA). Tampa Bay will likely put up a healthy amount of points as well, as the Vegas Dashboard has them implied for 28 points. As much as Payton wants to play defense and turtle up, he’s going to have to let Winston do his thing this week.
Running Backs
Top Play
Alvin Kamara ($33) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kamara has rushed at least 20 times in four games this season along with 17 red-zone carries. The carry count will likely be in the low teens for this one, though, as the Bucs are stout against the run, and the Saints will likely pivot to the passing game, which is where Kamara thrives. He’s scored four touchdowns through the air on the season and is coming off a 10 reception on 11 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown.
While the Bucs are stout against run games, they are only 24th in DVOA against receptions to running backs. With the Saints likely having to chase points in this one, Kamara could see another double-digit target day.
Top Value
D’Andre Swift ($22) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
As with Kamara, Swift makes his hay in the passing game. He has target counts of 11, five, seven, six, six, seven, and 10 on the season. He’s coming off an eight-reception for 96 yards and a touchdown game. He’s not a complete zero in the run game, though, as he has double-digit carries in five games. The red-zone utilization has been the most encouraging, as he has a total of 16 rushes and nine targets.
The Lions are implied for 22 points, and the total is a healthy 47.5 in this one. The Lions have been competitive this season, and the coaching staff has been aggressive. They are gunning for that first victory, and Swift will likely be a key piece in making that a reality.
The Eagles are 29th in rush defense DVOA and 14th in DVOA to running backs in the passing game.
Top Tournament Play
Joe Mixon ($29) @ New York Jets
Mixon has been meh this season. He’s scored at least 20 DraftKings points only twice with two below 10. After notching 29 and 20 carries in the first two weeks, he’s failed to hit that threshold again. The passing game involvement has been minimal while he only has seven red-zone carries on the season.
That said, he’s in a great spot to break out this week. The Jets are 27th in rush defense DVOA, and the Vegas Dashboard has the Bengals favored by 10.5 points and implied for 26.25 points. They should have no problems with New York this week.
Mixon is priced at an interesting spot because Kamara and Ekeler are only $4 more expensive, while Harris, Swift, and Henderson are all cheaper. That should keep the ownership level down on Mixon, and that’s what we want in tournaments – a talented player in a good matchup with most of the field overlooking him.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Terry McLaurin ($24) at Denver Broncos
I went over in the Taylor Heinicke section why I think this game has sneaky fantasy potential.
The range of outcomes is wide with McLaurin as he can get 13 targets and put up 123 yards and two touchdowns or catch four passes for 28 yards. That said, McLaurin is the alpha target for Heinicke, and he gets a matchup against a Broncos team that is 24th in pass-defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted sack rate.
The ownership will likely be low, the price is cheap, and the ceiling is comparable to players $10 more expensive.
Note: McLaurin is nursing an ankle injury, so be sure to monitor his status throughout the week.
Top Value
Robby Anderson ($11) @ Atlanta Falcons
I’ve seen some people recommend Anderson this week, so the projected ownership numbers could be elevated. But how many are willing to take the plunge?
The targets have been there: nine, 11, seven, and 11 over the last four games. Those have translated into three, three, two, and five receptions for 13, 11, 30, and 46 yards. He did score a touchdown, so yipee.
He gets to play on the fast track Mercedes Benz Stadium this week against a Falcons team that is 30th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in adjusted sack rate. Mr. Anderson is going to break out at some point. He’s $1 above the minimum, the opportunities have been there, and the game environment should be a good one. The risk/reward ratio seems beneficial. It all comes down to the projected ownership numbers.
Top Tournament Play
Robert Woods ($19) at Houston Texans
Cooper Kupp gets double-digit targets and scores two touchdowns every game. As a result, his price has elevated, and ownership levels should be high as well. Darrell Henderson will be popular because he’s cheap, and the Texans have one of the most porous run defenses. The Vegas Dashboard has the Rams implied for a whopping 31.25 points.
What if those points go to Woods? While Kupp and Henderson could still go off, Woods scoring touchdowns would directly provide leverage against those two. Woods only has one double-digit target game and one 100-yard one. He has scored three touchdowns, though. The rostership level should be low, and the amount of leverage he provides makes him an interesting tournament option.
Tight End
Top Play
TJ Hockenson ($20) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Hockenson has received nine and 11 targets in the last two games. That’s translated to six and eight receptions for 48 and 74 yards. This game has a healthy total of 47.5, with the Lions implied for 22 points. The Lions’ coaching staff has been aggressive and are looking for their first win of the season. Goff throws primarily to the running backs and tight ends, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Hockenson.
Top Value
Ricky Seals-Jones ($11) @ Denver Broncos
RSJ plays in 100% of the snaps and has received eight, six, and seven targets over the past three games. Those have translated to five, four, and six receptions for 41, 58, and 51 yards. He has one touchdown, and the most encouraging number is the eight red-zone targets over that span. He is just too cheap for his role.
Top Tournament Play
Tyler Higbee ($19) @ Houston Texans
The Rams are going to score a ton of points. It’s not a matter of if, but how many and by whom. Most will roster Kupp and Henderson, but I went over Woods earlier, and Higbee could go overlooked as well.
He has five games with at least five targets. He’s received 12 red-zone targets on the season. The Texans are 29th in DVOA against the position.
Higbee should be low-rostered and provides direct leverage against Kupp and Henderson rosters.
Defense
Top Play
Cincinnati Bengals ($18) @ New York Jets
Mike White played well last week, replacing Zach Wilson, going 20-of-32 for 202 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions against the Patriots. That was his first appearance in a game since being drafted back in 2018. Things will be much tougher this week as the Bengals have had a week to prepare for him. The unit is eighth in pass defense DVOA and 14th in adjusted sack rate. No team has scored 30 points against them, and they’ve held three teams to under 20 points. They have 21 sacks, one fumble, and five interceptions on the season. The Vegas Dashboard has the Bengals favored by 10.5 points, with the Jets implied for a slate-low 14.75 points.
Top Value
San Francisco 49ers ($14) @ Chicago Bears
The 49ers only have 12 sacks, three fumble recoveries, and one interception on the season. They do have a touchdown, but those are hard to account for. They get to face Justin Fields, though, who has thrown six interceptions and been sacked 22 times this season.
Tournament Play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($14) @ New Orleans Saints
They get to face Jameis Winston!
The range of outcomes is wide because Winston could go nuclear or get nuked. I mean, I wrote up Winston as the top tournament play at quarterback. The Bucs will likely score a ton of points which would mean elevated passing attempts for Winston. That could be a good or bad thing, depending on the perspective. The more passing attempts mean more chances for Winston to do what Winston does.
