Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 7.
Kyler Murray: Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. New York Giants, 50.5 Over/Under
Murray has a great matchup. The Giants are incredibly flawed on defense. They’re No. 32 in the league with a 38.7 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus). With the exception of the Jay Gruden-tainted Case Keenum-and-Dwayne Haskins tag team in Week 4, every quarterback to face the Giants defense has pulled a Voldemort and defiled it with dark magic.
On FanDuel especially, Murray is a strong option for cash games and guaranteed prize pools. He’s simply far too cheap. While he has the No. 3 quarterback salary at DraftKings, on FanDuel he’s tied for No. 6. The value he offers is immense.
Leonard Fournette: Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 44 Over/Under
Here’s what’s intriguing to me about Fournette: There seems to be this perception that he’s finally starting to break out. While he’s having a good season, it’s not as if he’s doing significantly more than he did in his first two seasons.
- 2019 (six games): 19.1 DraftKings points, +5.06 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating
- 2017-18 (24 games): 17.8 DraftKings points, +1.51 Plus/Minus, 54.2% Consistency Rating
The big difference with Fournette isn’t that he’s scoring way more points per game. The difference is that he’s significantly cheaper now than he was previously, so his outperformance is magnified and all the more valuable.
Then again, in backup rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew’s five starts, Fournette actually has seen a pretty significant increase in production.
Tyler Lockett: Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens, 49.5 Over/Under
Lockett’s matchup against the Ravens is intriguing, given that their secondary is in flux. The Ravens are No. 21 in pass defense (12.9% DVOA, per Football Outsiders), but they have been No. 2 against opposing No. 1 wide receivers (-38.4% DVOA), thanks primarily to the shutdown play of cornerback Marlon Humphrey.
And over the past two weeks, for the first time in his career, Humphrey has shadowed receivers into the slot — first JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 5 and then Tyler Boyd in Week 6. Although he allowed 3-49-1 receiving on three targets to JuJu, last week Humphrey shut Boyd down, allowing just one reception for one yard on five targets.
But I’m not sure how much stock I want to put into these two games. The Steelers and Bengals are a combined 1-10, and both games were played against backup-level quarterbacks in Mason Rudolph and Andy Dalton (#burn).
Evan Engram: New York Giants (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 50.5 O/U
But for this week, those challenges might not matter because Engram has the slate’s best matchup.
The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 20.8 FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Over the past couple of weeks they’ve attempted to stabilize their secondary by releasing abominable box safety D.J. Swearinger Jr. and moving do-it-all safety Budda Baker from the weak to the strong side. It helps the overall unit that this week it will get back No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson (suspension).
But even though Baker is small (5-foot-10, 195 pounds), he’s more of a run stopper and tackler than a cover guy. For his career, he’s allowed a 79.5% catch rate. As talented as Baker is, he’s probably not up to the task of manning up against Engram.
In roster constructions that allow for a high-priced tight end, Engram is an option in all formats.