Yahooooo! There are only 12 games on the Yahoo main slate that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday because the Jets and Falcons play in London.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
My top play is? Sam Darnold? What a time to be alive. Through four games this season, Darnold has scored 19.06, 19.9, 25.26, and 33.54 Yahoo points. He’s attempted 35, 38, 34, and 39 passes and gone over 300 yards in three of four games. The biggest allure, though, is that he has rushed five times in three of four games with a total of six red-zone carries that has translated into a league-leading five rushing touchdowns!
Touchdowns are unpredictable, so the expectation shouldn’t be that he scores on the ground every week, but the volume both on the ground and through the air has been consistent. He is also priced at $29, which is $12 cheaper than Kyler Murray.
The Eagles are 22nd in pass defense DVOA, but this is not a smash spot by any means. They are still 14th in adjusted sack rate while the Panthers are 26th in pass blocking. In addition, the Vegas Dashboard has the Panthers implied for 24.25 points, which is good but not great.
Finally, it’s still Sam Darnold, but on a week that only has three games with an O/U over 50 and no stand-out spots, Darnold looks to be one of the better options, all things considered.
Top Value
My top value is Trevor Lawrence. He’s going to win someone a million bucks! I kid, but I hope….that it’s me. Lawrence is priced at $24, which translates into a Bargain Rating of 88%.
The Jaguars are only implied for 22.25 points, but the game environment could be one of the better ones on the slate. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Jags are fourth in offensive pace while the Titans are sixth.
The Titans are implied for 26.75 points, and they should have few problems scoring against a Jags defense that is 14th in rush defense DVOA and dead-last in pass DVOA. That should force the Jaguars to remain aggressive. The Titans are 25th in pass defense DVOA and 24th in rush defense DVOA.
Both teams are near the bottom in pass-rush, according to PFF. The Titans blitz at the 10th-highest rate, so that should provide plenty of one-on-one opportunities in the passing game while providing openings for Lawrence on the ground.
After rushing one and two times in the first two games, Lawrence has six and eight attempts in the last two contests with four red-zone rushes.
Lawrence has scored fewer than 10 Yahoo points in two games and exceeded 20 points in only one game. This could be the game he breaks out, and the rostership should be low.
Top Tournament Play
Derrick Henry will likely be rostered on at least 30% of teams this weekend. That makes Ryan Tannehill one of the best tournament plays on the slate because of the direct leverage off of Henry teams. If Tannehill throws touchdowns to his receivers or runs one in himself, those are points that Henry doesn’t score.
He doesn’t project that poorly either in the Player Model, as he has the 11th-highest projection. That said, he’s gone over 20 Yahoo points only once this season, but at least he’s scored double-digits in every game.
Both Julio Jones and AJ Brown are questionable, but there is a chance one or both play this weekend. The matchup is pristine as the Jags are dead-last in pass defense DVOA and, if Lawrence can indeed have a big game, then this game could shoot out.
Maybe it’s Tannehill instead of Lawrence who wins someone a million dollars!
Running Backs
Top Play
My top play is Saquon Barkley at $23. It’s tough to go against Derrick Henry because he’s in a fantastic spot, but he’s $42, and the projected ownership is going to be sky-high on him. In addition, I outlined a path in which he disappoints above in the Ryan Tannehill section.
Barkley has the fourth-highest projection in the Player Model and the second-highest Plus/Minus. The Bargain Rating is 97%.
He began the season with 10 carries for 26 yards and caught one of three targets for one yard. Since then, he had 13, 16, and 13 carries for 57, 51, and 52 yards with a touchdown in each of the last two games. It’s been the passing game involvement that has me most excited as he caught six of seven targets for 43 yards two games ago, then hauled in five of six targets for 74 yards and a touchdown last week. He also has a total of 11 red-zone carries on the season and converted two of those.
At some point, he’s either going to break one or approach 20 carries. He’s already heavily involved in the passing game and at the goal line.
While Dallas is third in DVOA against passes to the running back, they are 19th in rush defense DVOA. The Cowboys are implied for 29.5 points, so there’s a chance that the Giants have to be aggressive to keep pace. The opportunities should be there for Barkley to produce those fantasy goodies.
Top Value
My top value is Leonard Fournette. He’s priced at $18. The strength of the Dolphins defense is the secondary, so the Bucs will likely lean more on the run in this one. In addition, the Vegas Dashboard has them favored by 10 points, so they likely won’t have to be too aggressive on offense.
It looks like Fournette has taken over the backfield for the Bucs as he carried 20 times for 91 yards last week. He’s also garnered seven, four, three, and five targets in the passing game. Ronald Jones has carried the ball four, six, five, and six times this season.
Top Tournament Play
Chubba Hubbard at $18 is my favorite tournament play. He hasn’t been great in his time replacing Christian McCaffrey, as he’s scored 9.4 and 8.1 Yahoo points the past two weeks. That said, he has had opportunities. He’s rushed 11 and 13 times for 52 and 57 yards while catching three of five targets for 27 yards and all two of his targets for 14 yards last week. He’s also had four red-zone carries and two red-zone targets.
The Eagles are 28th in rush defense DVOA, and the Sam Darnold/DJ Moore stack could be a popular one this weekend. If so, Hubbard provides leverage against it.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
My top play is Davante Adams at $33.
Adams is second in overall targets at 45 and 11.3 per game. He is right behind Cooper Kupp, who has 46. He’s going to get fed and has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Oh, he’s also one of the best wide receivers in the game.
There’s not much analysis needed here.
Top Value
My top value is DJ Moore. He’s priced at $20 and has a Bargain Rating of 99%. The projected Plus/Minus is a whopping 6.48.
Moore has received eight, 11, 12, and 12 targets this season. He’s converted those into 12.4, 17.9, 16.5, and 18.95 Yahoo points. He’s racked up at least 79 yards in each contest and gone over 100 in each of the past two games.
Moore now gets a matchup against an Eagles defense that is 22nd in pass defense DVOA.
Top Tournament Play
My top GPP play is Terry McLaurin. He faces a Saints team that is sixth in pass defense DVOA, and the projected ownership should be very low.
He’s priced at $22 and has a Bargain Rating of 97%. There’s an inconsistency to his game as he’s scored 8.2 Yahoo points in two games this season, but he’s gone over 20 in the other two, recording 11 receptions on 14 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown in one and six receptions on 13 targets for 123 yards and two touchdowns in the other.
Tight End
Top Play
My top play is Dalton Schultz at $19. He is the clear No. 1 tight end for the Cowboys as he has snap counts of 69%, 73%, 69%, and 79%, while Blake Jarwin has languished in the 50% range. As for targets, Schultz has 23 on the season while Jarwin has 13.
He matches up against a Giants team that has historically struggled defending the tight end position and are 24th in DVOA against the position this season.
Top Value
My top value play is Cameron Brate. He’s priced at the stone minimum of $10. With Rob Gronkowski out of action, Brate was in on 64% of the snaps last week and garnered six targets. Granted, he only caught two for 29 yards, but targets are targets.
The Dolphins cornerbacks are very good, while Miami is 20th in DVOA against tight ends.
Top Tournament Play
My top GPP play is Tyler Conklin. He’s priced at $16, so either people will go up $5 or down $5.
On the season, he’s received four, four, eight, and six targets. He’s racked up fewer than 20 yards in two games and has a high of 70 yards with only one touchdown. I know, exciting, right?
With the Vikings listed as heavy favorites (9 points), Dalvin Cook and the running game will be the primary focus and garner high ownership. The Lions are dead-last in DVOA against tight ends, and Conklin has three red-zone targets on the season.
Defense
Top Play
My top play is the New England Patriots. They are expensive at $16 but did you see what the Bills did to poor Davis Mills last week? Three sacks, one fumble, and four interceptions, good for over 20 Yahoo points. Another 20-burger shouldn’t be expected, but Bill Belichick feasts on rookie quarterbacks, and some turnovers and sacks could be on the menu.
Top Value
My top value is the Minnesota Vikings at $15. They are at home and play a Lions team that isn’t great on offense. The Vikings are fifth in adjusted sack rate and have notched five, three, two, and three sacks this season, along with two interceptions and one touchdown. The Vikings are at home and are nine-point favorites, so the Lions will have to be aggressive if they want to keep up. That should allow for plenty of sacks and turnover opportunities.
Tournament Play
My top GPP play is the Carolina Panthers. They are expensive at $18, and the Cowboys just did a number on them last week. That said, the Eagles are not the Cowboys, and Jalen Hurts is prone to sacks and turnovers.
