The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. New Orleans Saints – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Week 2’s main Sunday slate features 13 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with eight games in the early window and five in the later wave. In one of the early games, the Ravens have the second-highest implied team total, according to our Vegas dashboard, as they host the Saints in a matchup of teams that typically play fast. In that matchup against New Orleans, Lamar Jackson has the highest ceiling projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BLITZ projections.
Jackson had a strong Week 1 with 27.96 FanDuel points and 29.86 DraftKings points. He ran for a touchdown and 40 rushing yards while also completing 17 of 25 passes for 324 passing yards and another touchdown.
Jackson is working in a new offense with 29-year-old offensive coordinator Declan Doyle under head coach Jesse Minter. Week 1 in the new system went extremely well for Jackson, as the offense piled up 506 total yards and an NFL-high 7.9 yards per play. Jackson’s dual-threat potential always gives him a very high ceiling.
The Saints gave up 31 points on the road in an overtime loss to the Lions last week, and Jackson will look to rack up both rushing and passing yardage in the favorable matchup against them on Sunday. The Saints’ offense is up-tempo when at its best, which can sometimes leave their defense on the field a lot, setting up Jackson with a high ceiling.
One situation to monitor closely if you’re planning on playing Jackson is the availability of Zay Flowers (hamstring). With rookie receiver Ja’Kobi Lane (wrist) already on IR, Jackson could be short on pass-catchers, which could lead to more running opportunities but limit his passing potential.
Top Value: Jayden Daniels at Dallas Cowboys – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
On DraftKings, Jayden Daniels matches the most Pro Trends among all QBs by a wide margin. THE BLITZ projections give him the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He’s in the top seven in Plus/Minus projections on both sites in the FantasyLabs projections as well.
Daniels and the Commanders will take on the Cowboys in Dallas in Week 2, with the Cowboys on a slightly shorter week after losing to the Giants on Sunday Night Football. Daniels and the Commanders rallied against the Eagles in Philadelphia last week, coming up just short in a 24-22 defeat.
In the loss, Daniels was an inefficient 18-for-34 (52.9%) but threw for two touchdowns and ran for 31 yards, still racking up 17.7 DraftKings points. Like Jackson, he brings lots of upside as both a rusher and a passer, which gives him a very high ceiling against the Cowboys.
Last week, Jaxson Dart ran for 54 yards and threw for 230 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys, who added to their defense this offseason and may need some time to gel.
Daniels is a dynamic playmaker like Jackson and brings both a high floor and a high ceiling, with the rushing potential keeping his chances of busting very low. His receiving corps also got an upgrade with Stefon Diggs, Chig Okonkwo, and rookie Antonio Williams, who bring nice production potential if Daniels can keep them all involved along with his go-to target, Terry McLaurin.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Bijan Robinson vs. Carolina Panthers – $8,200 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel
With injury issues at QB, the Falcons will continue to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson. With a heavy workload and great matchup, Robinson brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at running back on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position in both sets of projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
In the season opener against the Steelers, Robinson played without both Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., leaving Cooper Rush to get another start. Robinson carried the load for Rush in Week 1, piling up over 170 rushing and receiving yards with 21 carries for 83 rushing yards and eight catches on 10 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown.
He piled up 31.3 DraftKings points in that monster performance, exceeding even his lofty salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He’ll be in an even better matchup on paper in Week 2 since the Panthers’ run defense gave up a huge game on the ground to the Bears in Week 1. The Bears’ two running backs combined for 58.8 DraftKings points, the most given up by any team to running backs in Week 1.
In such a great matchup with plenty of work likely resting on his shoulders, Robinson has the potential to put up another huge performance. He has a very high ownership projection, but his upside is too high to overlook as a top stud option.
Top Value: Aaron Jones Sr. at Chicago Bears – $5,100 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
In both sets of projections, Aaron Jones Sr. has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all running backs this week as he and the Vikings take on a second straight divisional rival to start the season.
The Vikings won at home against the Packers in Week 1, but they lost QB Kyler Murray to a concussion, and his status for this week is uncertain. Carson Wentz stepped in and played well enough to get the win in Week 1, relying on a strong defense and a nice, balanced running game. Jones finished with 10 DraftKings points on 12 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown while sharing time almost evenly with Jordan Mason (thumb).
Jones’ value gets a huge boost this week since Mason will be sidelined due to a thumb injury that required surgery earlier this week and will keep him out for at least the next four weeks. Jones should get as much of the work as he can handle, although DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne could also get more work.
The Bears gave up two touchdowns and 23.7 DraftKings points to Chuba Hubbard in their season opener against the Panthers, and this game could be a high-scoring contest like the one the Bears played last week, with plenty of fantasy goodness available on both sides.
With Jones getting more work than was expected when salaries were released, he stands out as an excellent value play in the backfield this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaxon Smith-Njigba at Arizona Cardinals – $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
The Seahawks beat the Patriots in the very first game of the new NFL season, with Smith-Njigba delivering a big performance despite losing his quarterback early and facing a tough matchup against Christian Gonzalez. In Week 2, JSN has the highest median and ceiling projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in a 50/50 aggregate of the FantasyLabs and THE BLITZ projections.
Smith-Njigba finished with 29.2 DraftKings points back on Wednesday night, proving he can still produce with Drew Lock under center instead of Sam Darnold (hip). He scored a key touchdown in his team’s victory and racked up eight catches for 122 yards.
He had the largest target share of any receiver in the NFL in Week 1, continuing to dominate looks as the primary option in Seattle’s offense. With a new backfield committee in place while Zach Charbonnet (knee) continues to work his way back, JSN could get even more work early in the season, and the scheme is designed to get the ball in his hands early and often.
In his Week 2 matchup, he’ll face the Cardinals, who pulled off one of the biggest surprises of Week 1 by knocking off the Chargers. They were solid against the pass in that game, but last year, Smith-Njigba had two strong showings against his divisional opponent, and at this point, he’s proven to be almost matchup-proof as a top stud to consider each week.
Top Value: DeMario Douglas vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
The Patriots lost that opener to Smith-Njigba and the Seahawks, and they also lost star WR A.J. Brown (ankle) for at least four weeks. One of the players with a huge chance to step into a larger role while he’s out is DeMario Douglas, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregate projections on DraftKings and the highest among the options under $6,000 on FanDuel.
Douglas is one of the most established options in the Pats’ passing game with Brown out, although newcomer Romeo Doubs will need to step up and play a larger role as well. Douglas played 62% of the snaps in Week 1, which was the second-highest mark among the team’s WRs, and he led the WR group with a 22.6% target share and 21 YAC.
He finished with five catches for 20 yards, catching mostly short passes against Seattle’s tough secondary, but he has also shown the ability to get loose for long plays down the field as a deep threat. In each of the last two years, Douglas has scored three touchdowns, and his solid connection with Drake Maye should pay off against the Steelers this week.
Pittsburgh beat the Falcons in Week 1, but they faced Cooper Rush with Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) sidelined. They’ll be in a much tougher matchup against Maye, who will look to bounce back from his tough opener with a big game at home. The Steelers still have some uncertainty around the availability of Joey Porter Jr., who was limited in practice Wednesday and may still not be ready to return. His absence stretches the Steelers’ secondary a little thin and could allow more space for Douglas, who will likely line up in the slot across from Jalen Ramsey for much of Sunday’s matchup.
His potentially high volume makes Douglas a great value play in Week 2, but there are other bargain values to consider at the position as well. On DraftKings, Caleb Douglas and Malik Washington both stand out as good values for the Dolphins, while on FanDuel, Caleb Douglas, Denzel Boston, and Devaughn Vele are projected to be the best bargains.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,900 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Picking up where he left off last year, Trey McBride continued to be a great weekly fantasy play with a big Week 1. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position this week against Seattle in the aggregate projections on both sites, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection on FanDuel, where he has an 83% Bargain Rating and matches nine Pro Trends, which is tied for the most at the position.
McBride caught nine of his 13 targets for 95 yards, a touchdown, and 24.5 DraftKings points in Week 1 and remains the primary pass-catcher for Jacoby Brissett, even though the team is running a new system under coach Mike LaFleur.
Last year, McBride had seven catches for 52 yards in his first game against the Seahawks and then posted nine catches for 127 yards and a touchdown in his most recent matchup against Seattle, when Brissett was starting at QB.
McBride has been remarkably consistent in almost every matchup with Brissett under center, and he should continue to get plenty of volume in this contest.
Top Value: Dalton Schultz vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $3,200 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
In the aggregate projections, Dalton Schultz has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all tight ends on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. He’s also in the top four on FanDuel, even though he’s a little pricier on that site.
In Week 1, Schultz finished with 7.5 DraftKings points, hauling in four of his eight targets for 35 yards. While that total isn’t amazing, it is a good sign for the veteran tight end going forward, especially with a larger workload potentially available in Week 2 against the Bengals.
Houston was already without Jayden Higgins (knee) for the season and was looking for pass-catchers to step up, and on Wednesday, Nico Collins (hamstring) also went down with an injury. He isn’t expected to be out long term, but his status for Week 2 is uncertain.
In Week 1, Schultz played 66% of the snaps and ran 34 routes, drawing a 21.6% target share, which was second on the team behind only Nico Collins. While he didn’t get any looks in the red zone, he has proven he can be a good option in scoring situations and can rack up PPR points if he gets heavy volume.
In Week 2, he’ll take on Cincinnati, which was a great matchup for tight ends last year. In Week 1, the Bucs didn’t involve their tight ends much, but with Stroud and the Texans looking to recover from last week’s close loss to the Bills while short on options, Schultz could be set for plenty of targets and thrive based on both volume and efficiency.
Schultz has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends in the FantasyLabs projections this week and in the aggregate projections as well. He comes at a great salary and allows you space to build around stars at other roster spots while still bringing a good ceiling himself.
Pictured: Bijan Robinson
Photo Credit: Imagn
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