In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Justin Herbert
- Anthony Richardson
- Sam Howell
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Justin Herbert ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (51 total)
Justin Herbert had a slow end to last year’s campaign, not topping 20 DraftKings points once after Week 14. Ironically, that Week 14 performance, in which Herbert had 22.48 DraftKings points, came against the Miami Dolphins. This game environment is perfect for fantasy, with two teams who ranked towards the top of the league in pass rate and could look to be even more aggressive this year.
Herbert’s middling performance in 2022 isn’t all on him, though. His offensive line was shaky, with Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley combining to play 16 games. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combined to miss 11 games, and the offense was led by coordinator Joe Lombardi who focused on a very short passing game despite Herbert’s elite arm talent.
They brought in Kellen Moore to replace Lombardi and selected wide receiver Quentin Johnston in the first round of the draft. Moore led the Cowboys to a top-ranked offense anytime Dak Prescott was healthy but was fired as Mike McCarthy felt Dallas’ offense threw the ball too much.
Miami ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass in 2022 and allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks. They acquired Jalen Ramsey in the offseason, but he’s injured. With the Chargers currently boasting a fully healthy offense, and a new, more fantasy-friendly system, it’s hard not to expect them to start off hot.
Herbert is the top option in our Cash Game and Tournament Model for Week 1.
Anthony Richardson ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (+5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (45 total)
The Indianapolis Colts took Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft and now get to watch him with head coach Shane Steichen, who just did a stellar job designing an offense around dual-threat Jalen Hurts. Richardson tested as the most athletic quarterback to ever enter the NFL, so there will be a lot of eyes on him as he starts his career.
Richardson has some accuracy issues, and many drives will likely be short-lived. However, we saw the potential in the preseason. Richardson will see usage with his legs, as we know how gifted he is. His range of outcomes is to be determined, but his rushing ability keeps his floor high. Richardson’s physical gifts make him exactly the type of player to take a risk on early in the season.
His price tag opens up a lot of builds, and in tournaments, you don’t necessarily need to stack any receivers with Richardson. The path to his upside comes mostly on the ground, and it’s unlikely he’s able to support tournament-winning scores for receivers. Alec Pierce and Josh Downs are cheap enough where there is a path, but it isn’t needed.
Richardson is certainly one of the most interesting quarterbacks of Week 1. He leads the position in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus. His range of outcomes is very wide, but his price is cheap and he certainly has a lot of upside.
He’s the top quarterback in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Sam Howell ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Washington Commanders (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals (38 total)
Washington and Arizona boast one of the grossest games of the Week 1 slate, but even these dumpster fires can provide fantasy goodness. Sam Howell is coming off of a great preseason, where he completed 76% of his passes for 7.2 YPA, throwing three touchdowns to just one interception.
Howell had a solid performance in his lone start last year against the stout Dallas defense. He completed 11 of 19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He also showed some ability on the ground, carrying the ball five times for 35 yards and a touchdown. The rushing performance is no fluke, as Howell ran for over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground during his final season at North Carolina.
Arizona allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks last season and, frankly, boasts an unserious roster this season. They lost their two best pass rushers in Zach Allen and J.J. Watt. They return 2023 second-round pick B.J. Ojulari and two 2022 third-round picks, Cameron Thomas and Myjai Sanders. Sanders and Thomas had respectable pressure rates but nothing special.
Howell also has viable pass-catchers who can make plays in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel. In such an easy matchup at a cheap price, Howell makes a lot of sense as a DFS option in Week 1.
He is tied for second in Points/Salary, but is the top quarterback in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs. Houston Texans (43.5 total)
Lamar Jackson missed the home stretch of last season due to a knee PCL Sprain. We’re happy to have Lamar back on the main slate, especially in this Week 1, which is missing some of the top quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Dak Prescott. With guys like Mahomes and Allen off the slate, the number of quarterbacks who can match Jackson’s ceiling is limited.
We saw Jackson with some monster performances early on last year, with 48.62 and 43.42 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks against the Dolphins and Patriots. Houston allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks last season, but that’s because teams simply stopped throwing the ball against them because they couldn’t stop the run.
Baltimore also switched from Greg Roman to Todd Monken as offensive coordinator, which should lead to more plays and a more pass-heavy approach than in years past.
Jackson’s ceiling can be matched by few, and in a spot at home as a huge favorite, he could light up the scoreboard to open this NFL season.
Jalen Hurts ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at New England Patriots (45 total)
Jalen Hurts took the league by storm last season, dominating early and often with 14 games of 20+ DraftKings points, including the postseason. He also had a miraculous stretch between Weeks 12-15 with 30+ points in all four games.
It’s to be determined how different this Eagles’ offense will look without Shane Steichen, but it’s still largely the same personnel, with Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith at the helm. It’s also noteworthy that Hurts put up some insane numbers despite a lot of games being over at halftime or early in the third quarter. If teams are able to keep some sort of pace with Philadelphia, we could see some monster fantasy performances from Hurts.
Can New England keep pace with the Eagles? Who knows. Bill Belichick had a whole offseason to prepare for Hurts, but we saw New England struggle against mobile quarterbacks last year. Lamar Jackson had 107 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while Justin Fields had 82 yards and a touchdown.
Ownership at quarterback looks pretty spread out for Week 1, but it looks like Hurts will be one of the more popular plays.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Deshaun Watson ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (+2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (47.5 total)
The Deshaun Watson we saw in the final six games of 2022 was far from the quarterback we saw in Houston. He averaged just 15.1 DraftKings points per game, throwing seven touchdowns to five interceptions. Personally, I’m not placing too much weight on those performances. Watson was fresh off missing two full seasons of playing time, had two of those starts in bad weather, and came into an offense that was banged up late in the season.
Cincinnati did allow the 10th-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks last season, including a 17.34-point performance for Watson in his lone game against the Bengals. The matchup may not be amazing, but we saw Cleveland get more aggressive with Watson under center, and we know the type of physical talent that he has.
A full offseason under his belt with a healthy offense may be all Watson needs to return to form. He looks to be low-owned, and if he is anything close to his 2020 self, then he’s drastically underpriced.
Russell Wilson ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Denver Broncos (-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (44 total)
Russell Wilson definitely did not cook in his first season in Denver, as he had career lows in completion rate and touchdown rate. He did have a solid end to the season, as he had three top-five scoring weeks in his final four starts. His best game of the season came against this same Raiders squad, as he had 27.48 DraftKings points in Week 4.
The Vegas defense, outside of Maxx Crosby, Chandler Jones, and Marcus Epps, is pretty unserious. Marcus Peters was added too, but he’s not the player he used to be. After all the negative talk in Denver, I’m sure Sean Payton and company would like to come out guns blazing against a lackluster defense. With Javonte Williams still coming back from his injury, it’s unlikely they run Samaje Perine 25 times. It’s more likely that they let Russ cook (sigh).
With Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler nursing injuries, it’s easy and affordable to double-stack Russ with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. There’s a chance this blows up in our face and the Broncos offense is inept, but there’s a realistic path to upside, and it’s coming at very low ownership. In tournaments, it doesn’t really matter if you get a floor outcome out of a player.
If you get an average outcome, you probably weren’t going to win any money anyway. Let’s shoot for the ceiling.
