Last week, DraftKings released pick-by-pick data for their Millionaire Maker NFL Best Ball contest. Naturally, this provides a robust data set for research purposes.
In this series, I’ll be using this data to highlight some potential strategies for Best Ball drafts this summer. It should be noted that DraftKings updates their data on a regular basis, so the exact numbers mentioned here won’t always be 100% accurate.
However, we can get a general sense of what players are drafted when — and in what combinations—which should allow for some insight into draft strategies.
While this data is specific to DraftKings’ Milly Maker contest, player behavior is broadly similar across other Best Ball operators as well as other contest types. A notable exception is that DraftKings uses a 20-round draft, while some other operators use less.
Keep that in mind for this article specifically, as viable undrafted players are harder to find on DK than on sites that use fewer rounds—but could be even more valuable if any of them hit.
The Concept
The focus of this article will be on players who frequently go undrafted in Best Ball but show up as valuable pieces in our Best Ball Rankings.
Due to the nature of the Best Ball format, these players are especially valuable. Typically, the majority of rosters that make it through to the Best Ball playoffs are similarly constructed by definition. Teams that drafted Saquon Barkley made it much further last year than those that drafted Christian McCaffrey for example.
With the top-heavy payout on DraftKings, having even a single unique player in your roster is massively +EV. That player scoring in Week 17’s 1021-player final round could move you to the top of the leaderboard, while chalkier players who hit don’t do much good, as they could be upwards of 50% owned by teams that make it to the finale.
I’m not suggesting you should try to jam your lineup with as many of these players as possible; in fact, quite the opposite. Each of them are unlikely to provide much value, which is why they’re going undrafted. However, sprinkling one or two across each team you draft can give you exposure to a large chunk of them, and you only need one to hit.
Quarterbacks
Given the low injury rate at quarterback and the fact that teams typically only use one, it makes it much harder to find undrafted sleepers. The most common roster builds include three QBs, and with 12 teams drafting, that means more QBs taken (36) than there are NFL teams.
Which is my long-winded way of saying that this will be the briefest section of this piece. Here are a couple of options to take as late-round fliers.
Daniel Jones: Labs Ranking QB32, 76% Drafted
For every other position I’ll be looking at players who are drafted in less than 50% of DraftKings drafts, but I’m going to bend the rules right from the jump.
That’s because we have Jones ranked over a few likely starters this season, even though he’s nominally the backup in Indianapolis.
Jones could be thrust into a starting role due to injury or simply named the starter if the Colts decide to end the Anthony Richardson experience. Richardson has played just 15 games in two seasons, both due to being benched and injured.
Jones is a far better fantasy QB than real-life player, with sneaky rushing upside that provided about four fantasy points per game. His passing stats should be better this season with the Colts as well, thanks to a better offensive line and more functional offense overall.
I’m looking to draft Jones as a QB3 on teams where I picked two mid-round QBs, on the off chance he can have a big week in the fantasy playoffs as a starter.
Joe Flacco: Labs Ranking QB33, 26% Drafted
Just by looking at the numbers in the heading, you can immediately see the opportunity provided by Flacco.
We have him ranked one spot behind Jones, but he’s being drafted in roughly a quarter of DraftKings drafts this season.
To be fair, his path to playing is a bit murkier. Deshaun Watson is officially listed as the Browns starter, and they drafted Shedeur Sanders this year. We have Flacco ranked the highest of the trio, though.
The downside is he’s more likely to play early in the season than late, barring a Sanders injury. While that doesn’t help in the playoffs, he could still provide some value.
One way I’ll be looking to use Flacco is as a “bridge” QB to fill points early in the season in teams that draft rookie QBs. While it’s less exciting than helping you win Week 17, keeping you in contention while you wait on someone like Jaxon Dart to hopefully take over is still valuable.
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Running Backs
The biggest factor in sleeper running backs is finding players who might sneak into a starting role with an injury or two in front of them. The market has gotten very efficient in terms of drafting second-string backs on quality offenses, so we have to dig a bit deeper to find players going undrafted in most drafts.
However, with running backs getting injured at the highest rate of any position, there’s likely to be a third-stringer or two that wins leagues this season. Here are a few players who could be that guy.
Ollie Gordon: Labs Ranking RB71, 51% Drafted
The “Labs Ranking” I’m referencing in this article is specifically based on the personal ranks of Sean Koerner. I bring that up here because Koerner is alone among our expert rankers in having Ollie Gordon inside of the top 300, ranking him ahead of fellow Dolphins 2024 draft pick Jaylen Wright.
Sean was FantasyPros’ most accurate ranker in the 2023 NFL season and finished third last year, so when he has a hot take, it’s worth paying attention to.
I can only speculate as to what led Koerner to that conclusion, but if I had to guess, it’s that Gordon might have some standalone value in goal line and short-yardage situations. He’s a significantly bigger back than both Wright and incumbent starter De’Von Achane, both of whom are lighter, faster backs.
While Alexander Mattison complicates the situation, Miami might choose to use Achane and Gordon as a thunder and lightning tandem, while Wright only sees significant playing time if Achane goes down.
That would mean you’re relying on a multi-touchdown game for fantasy value from Gordon, but if that happens in the fantasy playoffs, it could make a massive difference in the standings. That’s worth investing in a few shares at the last round of drafts.
Elijah Mitchell: Labs Ranking RB74, 15% Drafted
Elijah Mitchell suffered a hamstring injury just before the 2024 season that caused him to miss the entire year. That was part of a string of running back injuries in San Francisco that led to Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo becoming fantasy-relevant backs at various points.
Now in Kansas City, Mitchell has the potential for a similar rise from the third spot in the depth chart, should injuries occur in front of him
He’s behind Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt on the depth chart. Pacheco was active in just seven regular season games last season, and the Chiefs trusted him with just 13 carries in three playoff games. Hunt is in his ninth professional season with more than 1200 carries under his belt.
While you’d need an injury from both players for Mitchell to have a shot at being a league winner, even one of them going down would cause his ADP to rocket. That makes him an ideal candidate to draft early in the summer, since a camp injury to either player makes him much more expensive later on.
Kendre Miller: Labs Ranking RB65, 13% Drafted
The running back situation in New Orleans is messy this season. While Alvin Kamara is the clear starter, he handled only about 50% of the team’s carries last season despite playing in 14 games. He also turns 30 before the start of the season and has more than 1,500 career carries, making him a considerable injury risk.
That means there will almost certainly be production elsewhere in New Orleans, but where it comes from is hard to pin down. Our expert rankers are mixed, with Kendre Miller and rookie Devin Neal each ranked as the likely #2 by at least one ranker.
I don’t have much of a take on that myself—though projecting a rookie sixth-rounder to step into a starting role should Kamara go down seems a bit unlikely. However, while Neal is being drafted in the majority of drafts, only about 15% of leagues see Miller go off the board.
That makes Miller an obvious value even if you think he’s somewhat less likely than Neal to be the actual #2 back all year. At worst, he probably has a standalone role early in the season, and at best, he becomes a semi-workhorse if Kamara misses time before Neal is ready for NFL reps.
Wide Receivers
Given the high variance of production at wide receiver, we don’t necessarily need to find players who are an injury away from a heavy role. Especially in Best Ball—since we don’t have to guess on when to start them—players who can put up a ton of points on deep passes or two should be the theme for your late-round fliers.
Of course, it’s nice if they also see heavy volume—but players who fit that criteria rarely go undrafted.
Roman Wilson: Labs Ranking WR97, 45% Drafted
Roman Wilson was a 2023 third-round pick but played just five snaps as a rookie. He suffered a training camp injury that landed him on the PUP list until Week 6, then a hamstring injury that forced him out for the remainder of the season.
That makes this effectively his rookie season, although with a head start in terms of knowledge of the scheme and playbook in Pittsburgh. That is, assuming those things don’t change heavily with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Earning Rodgers’ trust is notoriously crucial (and difficult), particularly for young players. However, Wilson could emerge as the Steelers’ #2 receiver behind DK Metcalf if he lives up to his NFL Draft position.
The Steelers’ receiver room is tough to pin down behind Metcalf, with Robert Woods and Calvin Austin are unlikely to command massive target shares, so there’s some up for grabs.
I have my doubts about Rodgers and the Steelers offense in general this season, which makes Wilson a risky pick. However, that’s the type of player I like late in drafts—especially since he’s a home run hitter with 94th percentile speed who can win a week on one or two deep passes.
Adonai Mitchell: Labs Ranking WR85, 39% Drafted
Adonai Mitchell totaled just 312 scoreless yards in his rookie season, but the second-round draft pick could be in line for a sophomore leap.
First he’ll have to climb the depth chart, where he’s currently listed as the Colts #4 wideout. Like Wilson, he’s a speedy deep threat—so he could post a usable week or two even without much volume—but obviously would be much better with a more robust role.
Unfortunately, it’s unlikely he moves up without an injury in front of him. The Colts top three wideouts are all under age 27 and all drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. As with Kendre Miller, it’s probably better to draft him earlier in the summer, as there’s more chance for an injury to strike ahead of him that would push his ADP up later.
Tre Tucker: Labs Ranking WR87, 15% Drafted
Tucker, on paper, already has a starting role in the Raiders offense. He’s listed in front of their 2025 second-round pick, Jack Bech—who experts project for more points—so that could change, but it’s at least a start.
Tucker is another 90th percentile speed player who doesn’t need consistent targets in order to pay off in Best Ball. He had multiple 50+ yard touchdowns in 2024, both of which made him usable in the weeks they happened. One of those coming in the best ball semi-finals was a huge bonus as well.
Koerner in particular is bullish on the Raiders offense this season, as they’ve upgraded from Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell at QB with the signing of Geno Smith, as well as drafted Ashton Jeanty. He has both Tucker and Bech ranked well ahead of their ADPs, but Tucker is a sneaky way to get some exposure to the offense in the last round or two.
Tight Ends
Much like quarterback, finding undrafted tight ends is no easy feat. Very few teams produce multiple fantasy-relevant players at the position. With the majority of teams drafting three tight ends, that means most leagues have 30+ tight ends taken when there are only 32 starters.
We also don’t necessarily need to hit a sleeper at tight end. The odds of an undrafted player turning into a league-winning or even week-winning player are fairly slim. With that said, here are a couple of players who could shore up your tight end corps at a low cost.
Before selecting your undrafted sleepers, consider looking at the NFL team totals.
Theo Johnson: Labs Ranking TE29, 81% Drafted
I’m entirely ignoring my 50% rule at tight end and looking for players that even have the potential to go undrafted. One of the few options with a real role is Johnson. Koerner is about 30 picks ahead of ADP on the Giants tight end, making him a solid value.
The hope is that Johnson both makes a second-year step forward and the Giants offense improves under Russell Wilson. Johnson saw just 43 targets in 12 games last year, but the Giants offense was a mess all around.
With Malik Nabers distracting defenses, Johnson could draw some looks as a chain-mover underneath. His ceiling is more “steady production” than “spike weeks,” but that’s ok at tight end. I’ll be drafting him on teams where I don’t draft a stud tight end early. If you can recreate a player like George Kittle in the aggregate with three late-round picks, that’s a huge edge at other positions.
Ja’Tavion Sanders: Labs Ranking TE31, 78% Drafted.
Sanders and Johnson are virtually identical fantasy assets this season. Both are second-year players at a position (at least formerly) known to be hard to adapt to at an NFL level, on offenses that could be improving overall.
While the Giants made a quarterback change, the hope for Carolina is that Bryce Young finally lives up to his #1 overall pick draft stock. Of course, Carolina almost has to get better by default after averaging just 20.1 points per game last season.
That rising tide could lift Sanders’ boat. Like Johnson, I’m not drafting him to be the second coming of Travis Kelce, but if I get a few usable weeks out of him from the final round, I’d consider it a pick well spent.
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