If you’re like me, you mostly tune out from the NFL for a few months in the spring. Sure, we’ll keep up on the draft, but there’s not much to pay attention to until the summer hits.
Best Ball changes all of that. While the overall data is inconclusive, it’s certainly possible to get a pretty big edge over the field by drafting early in the spring. Plenty of players will see their ADPs rise massively based on injuries in front of them, positive training camp news, or potentially even NFL rule changes (more on that later).
Fortunately, our projection team of Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon has already rolled out their first round of rankings for the 2025 NFL season. To see the full list, you’ll need to sign up for our season-long fantasy package, but this piece will give you a quick overview of some of the notable takeaways from those rankings.
Rankings and ADPs will fluctuate after this article is posted. Be sure to check out our Best Ball rankings from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Chris Gimino for up-to-the-minute ranks.
Rookies They’re High On
Counting tight ends, the Packers had five different pass catchers see between 52 and 67 targets last season. That’s fine from a real-life perspective and was enough for Green Bay to be a top-10 scoring offense, but it’s rough for fantasy. We’ll see if Matthew Golden (WR, Packers) can consolidate looks this year. At the very least, he could have some big plays with his 4.29 speed. That’s fine for Best Ball, since we don’t need a good score every week. Koerner and Raybon have him ranked a few spots ahead of his 76.4 ADP.
Fourth-round pick Elic Ayomanor (WR, Titans) should start for the Titans this season, with #1 overall pick Cam Ward (QB, Titans) throwing him the ball. Ayomanor is big and fast but a bit raw. Our #174 ranking is well ahead of his 202.5 ADP, and he could be a steal late in drafts. Rookie receivers tend to produce way more in the later parts of the season — just in time for Best Ball playoffs.
Rookies They’re Low On
It’s a bit misleading to say that our rankings are “low” on Ashton Jeanty (RB,Raiders), but we do have him ranked as the 16th-best fantasy option. That’s well lower than the market at Underdog, where he’s currently going off the board with an 8.8 ADP.
Some of that difference is because we’re higher on other backs, who we’ll discuss later, and some is due to generally being higher on wide receivers than running backs. This is important for Best Ball, since the wider range of outcomes for receivers is more of a feature than a bug compared to traditional season-long leagues.
The other issue with Jeanty is the general state of the Raiders offense. Las Vegas has a team win total of just 6.5, an uncertain QB situation, and not much offensive firepower. Jeanty could be a great real life player, but a struggling offense will limit his touchdowns and opportunities. He’s also likely to be somewhat limited on passing downs, so he would be more productive on a team that spends more time leading games.
Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Panthers) was the only true WR to go in the top 10 of this year’s draft, but our rankers were a bit pessimistic on him. Like with Jeanty in Las Vegas, the overall offense in Carolina could be rough this year. We still have him just inside the top 50 at spot #49, but that’s about ten picks below his ADP.
I described McMillan as the only true WR in the top 10 because of Travis Hunter (WR, Jaguars) going #2. As our #62 ranked player, we’re about 20 spots below ADP. The WR/CB combo’s usage is still a huge question mark, as it’s possible he gets more snaps on defense than offense. He could be a steal at his 42.2 ADP if he ends up playing offense full-time, but his median outcome is lower than that. I want a few Hunter shares early on, but don’t reach for him.
Post-Hype Sleeper(s)
After being drafted as the top pick in fantasy drafts last offseason, Christian McCaffrey (RB, 49ers) played just four games in 2024. Prior to that he was an elite fantasy performer. Still just 28, we’re betting on a return to form and ranking him inside the top ten, a bit higher than the market which has his ADP at 11.5
Caleb Williams (QB, Bears) finished his rookie season at about QB25 (depending on scoring setting) in points per game at the position after being drafted first overall. Now the Bears brought in former Lions OC Ben Johnson to revitalize their offense. On top of that, Chicago used their first two picks on pass catchers to improve the weaponry for Williams. He’s being drafted as QB10, but we have him as our QB7.
It’s Year 3 for Anthony Richardson (QB, Colts), who was injured early in his rookie season and benched at times in 2024. With Daniel Jones (QB, Colts) now serving as his backup, it seems like the Colts are willing to hand him the reins this season. Like Williams he now has a first round tight end to throw to, and his explosive ability makes him a great best ball QB if paired with a more steady option. We’re a whopping 30 spots ahead of ADP on Richardson.
Sam Laporta (TE, Lions) finished his rookie season as the TE1, then fell back to TE7 last season. Most of that was due to usage, with LaPorta seeing about 40 fewer targets last year. Detroit’s offense could look to involve him more in the post-Ben Johnson era, though, and/or have closer games that require more passing. He’s the TE4 in our rankings but has the upside to finish #1 again.
Possible Breakout(s)
The TE4 in points per game last season was David Njoku (TE, Browns), who averaged nearly six catches per game for just under 50 yards. While he missed some time, he was extremely solid when healthy. The Browns’ QB situation is a bit unclear now, but we could get a steal on Njoku by leaning into that uncertainty. We’re almost 30 spots ahead of his Underdog ADP.
Jerome Ford (RB, Browns) could also benefit from an improved offense, and should be the starter at least initially with Nick Chubb (RB, Browns) likely to officially become a free agent soon. While the Browns drafted Quinshon Judkins (RB, Browns) in the second round, Ford probably holds onto his job for the start of the season. That makes him even more valuable in a format like “The Eliminator” on Underdog, where the bottom half of teams are eliminated each week. Payouts start with teams that make it to Week 4, so early season production is crucial.
It’s possible that the Giants offense takes a big step forward this season, with Russell Wilson (QB, Giants) and Jameis Winston (QB, Giants) replacing the aforementioned Daniel Jones. We’re slightly higher than market on Malik Nabers (WR, Giants) but well ahead of the curve on Tyrone Tracy (RB, Giants). Tracy had some big moments last year despite the overall offensive struggles and seemingly seized the starting job. We’re about 15 spots ahead of the market on him.
With Najee Harris (RB, Chargers) out of the equation, Jaylen Warren (RB, Steelers) might finally get lead back work this season. He’s been fairly efficient on limited usage in the past. The Steelers offense makes him a risky pick, but he could pay off his 104.7 ADP just on workload.
“One Injury Away” Targets
The biggest edge in drafting early in best ball is getting players at a discount before they become starters. It makes sense in early drafts to invest in players who are one injury away. If the starter in front of them were to go down, their ADP would see a huge jump.
This is mostly seen with running backs, who have the potential to inherit most or all of the former starter’s workload. The following players fit that criteria and are ranked higher in our rankings than their current ADP.
Blake Corum (RB, Rams) is one injury away from being a league winner, making him a valuable draft target early in the year. He’s the main backup to Kyren Williams (RB, Rams), who handled 316 carries last season after missing time in the prior two years with injuries. McVay and the Rams have shown the tendency to lean on a single workhorse back, which would be Corum if Williams is unavailable. We’re 11 spots ahead of the market and have him as our RB53.
David Montgomery (RB, Lions) has plenty of standalone value, even as the 1B behind Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Detroit). Over the past two seasons, Montgomery has scored 25 touchdowns. If Gibbs were to go down — even temporarily — Montgomery would be a top 10 back. We’re well above the market on him, ranking him at 52, when his ADP is above 70.
We’ve seen Kareem Hunt (RB, Chiefs) fill in admirably in the past. The Chiefs seem to trust him in key moments, and he has a solid passing down role even when Isaiah Pacheco (RB, Chiefs) is healthy. Like Montgomery, he can help your team even as a backup but has upside for way more if Pacheco gets hurt.
Pictured: David Montgomery
Photo Credit: Getty Images
