A makeshift main event between fan-favorite Bobby Green and Islam Makhachev headlines UFC Vegas 49 on Saturday. The surging Makhachev is looking to earn a title fight with a 10th-straight win, while Green could be in the title picture with an upset win. Lineups lock at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday,
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Islam Makhachev ($9,500) vs. Bobby Green ($6,700)
Bobby Green stepped up on roughly 10 days notice to take on top-five lightweight Islam Makhachev. This fight was apparently offered to some other contenders, but only Green (who just fought two weeks ago) was willing to take it. It’s easy to see why; this fight is all upside for Green. He’s a +600 underdog, and would jump from “journeyman” to “contender” with a win.
Securing the win against Makhachev is no easy task, though. The Dagestani heir apparent to Khabib Nurmagomedov has won his last nine bouts, including three in a row by submission. His penchant for submission hunting is critical to how this plays out from a DFS standpoint. Submissions — roughly speaking — don’t produce as many points as knockouts. Knockout wins usually come with a bonus for a knockdown, as well as points for each strike involved in the finish.
Makhachev produced 101, 117 and 102 points (chronologically) in his last three submission wins. At his high salary, only the 117-point performance will likely be enough to end up in the optimal lineup — particularly on a card like this, where six fights are -200 or better to end inside the distance. We’ve now seen three straight cards where the favorite wins the main event, but doesn’t end up in the optimal lineup. That could be the case again here.
Of course, Green at only $6,700 would certainly be in the best lineup were he to pull out a win. There’s an outside shot he makes it with a loss as well. Green has a very high activity rate, and has landed the most significant strikes in UFC lightweight history. If he can make it five rounds, he could easily score in the 70-80 point range with a loss.
That makes Green the slightly better play in my opinion, when you factor in his likely significantly lower ownership. (Over the last 16 five-round fights, underdogs average just over half the ownership of favorites.) However, I’ll be mixing in some Makhachev. Green is better at getting back to his feet than he is defending takedowns, and notoriously hard to finish. He hasn’t been stopped since 2016 or submitted since 2009, despite being one of the most active MMA fighters in that time span.
The best case scenario for Makhachev is a 25-minute fight where he lands multiple takedowns per round. That’s also the scenario I see playing out. If mass multi-entering, having some lineups with both fighters isn’t the worst idea either. Depending on how the rest of the card shakes out, they could both end up in the optimal if this one makes it the distance.
The Easy Chalk
Ramiz Brahimaj ($9,300)
At $9,300, Brahimaj is the most expensive fighter outside of Makhachev. However, he’s extremely hard to fade for his bout against Michael Gillmore ($6,900). Brahimaj’s 1-2 UFC record isn’t spectacular, but this pick isn’t really about him.
Gilmore’s story is an inspiring one. The 6-4 professional tried out for the last season of The Ultimate Fighter, but didn’t initially make it into the house. However, Gillmore stuck around in Las Vegas, waiting for his chance. He got it when one of the cast members was injured. That’s where the inspiration ends, though. Gillmore was quickly submitted by Gilbert Urbina on the show. Then, he was finished in the third round by Andre Petroski in his first fight outside of the house.
I’m glad Gillmore is getting one more shot to stick around in the UFC, but he hasn’t really shown any indication he’ll be able to do so. He has only one win against a fighter with a winning record — and that fighter was 3-2. Gilmore didn’t really fight much high-level competition before coming to the UFC, and has struggled against them since arriving.
All of which makes Brahimaj perhaps the safest play on the slate. His salary is a challenge, though, as a quick submission win might not be enough scoring given the nature of the card. I’m locking in the near-guaranteed win for cash games, but will have Brahimaj in only some of my gpp lineups.
The Upside Plays
Josiane Nunes ($8,900)
Nunes turned in an impressive performance in her UFC debut, landing 52 significant strikes in just under a round before putting away Bea Malecki with an overhand right. For context, the average UFC fighter attempts just over 40 total strikes per round. That’s obviously the kind of fighter we want to target for DFS contests, especially GPPs. She’s been a quick finisher throughout her career, with none of her fights even making it to the third round — much less out of it. (Some of her regional bouts don’t have time or method of victory listed, so this speaks only to those that do.)
This time around, she draws another UFC debut fighter in Ramona Pascual ($7,300). Pascual is also a quick worker. Only one of her eight professional fights has been decided by the judges. That would suggest somebody ends this one quickly — and puts up a big score along the way.
It’s much likelier to be Nunes, though, for a variety of reasons. The obvious reason is that she’s a -225 betting favorite. Pascual also took this bout on short notice, agreeing to it just over a week ago. It’s the third opponent for Nunes since she signed to fight on this card. While that’s frustrating, she’s still had a full camp and should be ready to go for this one.
Nunes also has a reach advantage, despite being a full five inches shorter. That’s a huge bonus in a fight that should take place mostly on the feet. Nunes didn’t attempt a takedown in her UFC debut, and both of Pascual’s professional losses came on the ground. (One by ground and pound, one by submission.)
It’s a bit tricky to find the salary to get to Nunes, but could be well worth it. Female fighters tend to be under-owned relative to their male counterparts. This makes sense, given the generally lower finish rates. That’s not an issue here, though, with this fight a -250 favorite to end inside the distance. If you can find the savings elsewhere in your lineup, Nunes is a very strong play.
Zhu Rong ($7,200)
Rong is facing Ignacio Bahamondes ($9,000) in a classic striker-against-grappler matchup. Rong has attempted 12 takedowns in only six rounds of UFC action, securing eight of them so far. He’s fairly aggressive with the ground and pound once he gets his opponent to the mat as well. His 52 attempted strikes per round is slightly above the UFC average.
That’s a highly fantasy-friendly combination for Rong. Bahamondes is a fairly one-dimensional striker who’s yet to secure a takedown in his UFC career. He did successfully defend 12 attempts from Roosevelt Roberts in his last fight, though. That makes this a slightly risky play.
Still, at only $7,200 I want some exposure to Rong. The smaller cage at the UFC Apex center is helpful here, as it leaves Bahamondes less room to stay on the outside and away from Rong. It does present some risk this turns into a slower fight, though. We could see Rong unsuccessfully attempting takedown after takedown, which lowers the total scoring in the fight. However, at Rong’s price we can deal with that as long as he ends up with his hand raised at the end of the night.
Rong is also one of the biggest movers in the betting markets ahead of this one. He opened at +215 or so when DraftKings released their salaries, but is now +175. That means we’re getting him at a discount — and sharper money is on his side. Both of those are crucial data points when we’re trying to fill out a lineup with a cheaper fighter.
The Value Play
Joel Alvarez ($7,100)
With his odds moving from +230 when salaries were released all the way to +180, Alvarez is a big value in terms of win equity per dollar. The 6-foot-3 lightweight has finished four straight fights, with only one leaving the first round. He’s used an impressive mix of striking and submission skills along the way, with a standing knockout, a ground and pound knockout and two submissions.
He’s a stylistic challenge for anyone, but especially his opponent Arman Tsarukyan ($9,100). Tsarukyan is an aggressive grappler who averages more than three takedown attempts per round. That’s playing with fire against Alvarez, who has secured no takedowns in his UFC career, but is clearly dangerous when he gets to the ground.
Alvarez is a risky play. His aggressive hunting of finishes can lead to gassing out fairly quickly, as we saw in his UFC debut. I won’t include him in my cash game lineup for that reason. If he doesn’t get Tsarukyan out of there early, it could be a very disappointing score. However, he’s an ideal GPP play. At just $7,7000, an early finish secures his spot in the optimal lineup.
The Contrarian Approach
Armen Petrosyan ($7,700)
Based on his Contender Series bout, Petrosyan will be the striker in a striker-vs-grappler matchup with Gregory Rodrigues ($8,500). Rodrigues isn’t lacking in the striking department, though. “Robocop” won his last fight on the feet with a standing TKO, and has a variety of standing knockouts in his career.
However, he’s a fairly aggressive grappler who’s attempted at least one takedown in every round of UFC action so far. That means for Petrosyan to have a chance, he needs to win this fight on the feet. If he’s able to do so, he’ll be a very valuable DFS play.
Petrosyan allowed a few takedowns in his Contender Series fight, but never really let his opponent — Bulgarian Judo champion Kaloyan Kolev — establish dominant positions. Petrosyan was able to get back to his feet quickly, before ultimately landing a head kick and flurry of punches that put the much larger Kolev away.
Now back at his natural 185 lbs, Petrosyan should have more than enough power to put away Rodrigues if he can find his chin. This isn’t without risk given Rodrigues’ power and his edge in the reach department. Still, we’re going to have to find a big score from somebody in the cheaper price range. Petrosyan is one of the leading candidates to provide it.
The Swing Fight
Carlos Hernandez ($8,200) vs. Victor Altamirano ($8,000)
Hernandez vs. Altamirano is the opening bout of Saturday’s festivities. The flyweights are both coming off of split-decision wins in their Contender Series bouts. Neither man was especially impressive in their performance. I would’ve judged Altamirano the loser of his contest, while Hernandez swung the crucial third round his way with a late flurry in the final 10 seconds. However, they both threw a ton of volume, which is a good thing for DFS.
That’s the kind of fight we want to target for DFS. This is a very high-variance fight, with relatively low-level fighters. We need to find a win or two from fighters in these guys price ranges this week, and this one could produce a ton of points along with it.
I have a fairly strong lean toward Hernandez in this one. He was able to secure a few takedowns in his fight, which Altamirano struggled to defend in his. Altamirano seemed happy to concede takedowns and look for guillotines, which is a very low-probability submission. In a perfect world, he’s able to get back to his feet, allowing Hernandez more chances to rack up takedown points.
Even if he can’t, either man getting a finish at their salaries would be more than enough to see them end up in the optimal lineup. This is one of the rare fights on the card that is a favorite to go the distance, although at +110, a stoppage isn’t exactly a long shot. There’s also a lot of paths to big scores even with a decision win, thanks to the limited defense and high output exhibited by both fighters in their Contender Series bouts.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Pictured above: Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green
