We’re back to the Apex for the first time in a while, with a relatively lackluster card in terms of name value. Of course, the DFS contests pay out the same, so it’s just as important to get this one right as any other week.
The 14-fight card is headlined by Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos and locks at 5:00 p.m. ET with the start of the preliminary card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Kevin Vallejos ($9,600) vs. Josh Emmett ($6,600)
The UFC seems to believe they have a potential future star on their hands in Kevin Vallejos, a 24-year-old Argentinian who is now 3-0 in the UFC. Vallejos lost a close decision to Jean Silva on the Contender Series when he was just 21 but is otherwise undefeated with 14 finishes and 19 professional wins.
It certainly seems as if they’re trying to build him up as a future contender with this matchup against Josh Emmett. Emmett is on the wrong side of 40 and is a former (interim) title challenger who has fought the who’s who of the featherweight division over the past decade or so. He’s served as an effective gatekeeper, with the fighters who beat him going on to do big things.
That’s the job he’s doing here, but between his age and the fact that he’s 1-4 over his last five, I’m not sure how much hope he has in sending Vallejos back down the rankings. Emmett still has power and a solid chin, but his speed and reflexes are clearly diminished. That’s a problem against Vallejos, a lightning-quick striker who should get the better of most striking exchanges.
From a DFS standpoint, Vallejos is a near must-play. He lands more than five significant strikes per minute, while Emmett is typically fairly hittable. However, I like stacking this one in both cash games and GPPs. There’s a general lack of cheap options, and the fight is favored to go over 3.5 rounds. Emmett should look to wrestle here, and he’s been extremely durable throughout his career.
At worst, that should give him a solid floor. In a scenario where the chalk largely comes through, that might be enough to sneak into the optimal lineup as the cheapest fighter on the card.
The Easy Chalk
Jose Delgado ($9,300)
As has become the standard lately, we have plenty of viable $9,000+ fighters this week, with less than five points of median projection separating the five fighters priced directly below Vallejos. That means getting the top options right is both vitally important and extremely tricky.
While I’ll be mixing and matching my exposure in GPPs, the strongest bet is probably Delgado. He’s fighting Andre Fili ($6,900), who is 2-2 over his last four with two split-decision wins and both losses coming in the first round. Delgado has finished all 10 of his pro wins and even scored a knockdown in his decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in his last fight.
I don’t trust Fili to stand up to that power at this point in his career, nor do I think his offensive wrestling can force this into a grappling match. At +185 odds, Delgado has the best chance of a first-round win on the slate, and we probably need one from any fighter north of $9,000 this week, making Delgado the best choice overall.
The Upside Play
Gillian Robertson ($8,600)
One key to unlocking the slate might be finding some big scores in the middle ranges of the salary scale. While these picks won’t be as safe as those at the top, some of them have just as high of a ceiling. That’s the case with Robertson, who brings a four-fight winning streak into her matchup with Amanda Lemos ($7,600).
This is a dream stylistic matchup for Robertson. She’s arguably the best MMA wrestler at strawweight—if not all of women’s MMA—and is taking on one of the worst defensive wrestlers. Robertson has landed 11 takedowns on her winning streak, but two of those fights ended with second-round TKO victories.
Robertson is elite at turning takedowns into control time, which limits her takedown upside but allows her to bank points as the seconds roll on. Lemos has averaged more than three minutes on her back per takedown allowed over her past four fights, giving Robertson a clear path to a big score.
Plus, she could also finish the 38-year-old Lemos, which would almost certainly be enough for the optimal at her price point. Lemos is a much better striker and has a puncher’s chance, making this risky, but that risk is worth taking to save salary.
Updated on 3/13/26
The Value Play
Bruno Silva ($7,500)
I had hoped that Bruno Silva would be my contrarian play this week, but his moneyline has caught enough steam to the point where he’ll also be popular in DFS. Silva opened around +170 against Charles Johnson ($8,700), but that number has now dropped to +140.
I was thrilled to get a bet on Silva at +170, as I outlined in my Luck Ratings piece. Both he and Johnson are 5-2 over their past seven fights, with Silva’s losses coming to Josh Van (current flyweight champion) and Manel Kape (#2 Contender). Johnson’s losses have been against Alex Perez (#10) and Ramzan Temirov (unranked).
More importantly, Johnson was flattened by Perez just six weeks ago and probably shouldn’t be fighting again this quickly—at least not against an opponent like Silva, who has totaled seven knockdowns in those five wins. It’s a terrible matchup for Johnson if his chin is compromised, which it likely is given the quick turnaround.
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The Contrarian Choice
Steven Asplund ($7,200)
This is a pick that could go extremely wrong in a hurry, but if Steven Asplund can survive the first few minutes, he’s in a great position against Vitor Petrino ($9,000).
Asplund has a unique style for a heavyweight in that he doesn’t load up on punches so much as swarm with “light” shots. Of course, those shots aren’t all that light when thrown by a fighter who stands 6’5″ and weighs north of 260 lbs. The benefit there is that he can keep up his pace forever, while many heavyweights burn themselves out extremely quickly.
Petrino fits more into the former camp since coming up to heavyweight. He expends a lot of energy grappling and throwing heavy strikes and could potentially tire as the fight goes on. He has a massive grappling edge over Asplund, but if the latter can survive a trip or two to the canvas, he should be able to build later in the fight.
I have my doubts on the surviving part, so I won’t have a ton of Asplund, but it won’t take much to be well over the field.
The Swing Fight
Marwan Rahiki ($9,200) vs. Harry Hardwick ($7,000)
With the closely-lined fights all likely to go to a decision, we’re going with a bit of an unusual swing fight this week. Marwan Rahiki is solidly favored over Harry Hardwick, and for good reason, but his style could potentially allow the underdog to put up a big score as well.
I clocked Rahiki as a defensive liability in my breakdown of his Contender Series fight, noting that all of his spinning and leaping techniques leave him open to counters. Indeed, he was knocked down twice in his DWCS win but scored two knockdowns of his own en route to a KO victory.
Hardwick is a more traditional boxer who could exploit some of those defensive liabilities if he’s able to stay calm in the face of Rahiki’s offense. He’s also a considerably less gifted athlete who could easily be outgunned by “Freaky” Rahiki.
Most of my interest is in the favorite here, but given the need to find some value, we could do a lot worse than Hardwick in some portion of our GPP portfolio.
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Pictured: Jose Delgado
Photo Credit: Imagn
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