The UFC has one more fight card before taking Memorial Day weekend off, with a 12-fight card from the UFC Apex Center. Former title challenger Gilbert Burns takes on the undefeated Michael Morales in the main event.
Lineups lock at 4:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Michael Morales ($9,700) vs. Gilbert Burns ($6,500)
This is one of the wider lines we’ve seen in a main event in a while, with Morales as high as a -950 favorite on Friday. It’s a fairly understandable line, as the 38-year-old Burns has lost three straight fights, with his last win more than two years ago.
That makes this a tougher decision than usual in terms of a cash game stack, as Morales is favored to win inside the distance. The under 3.5 round prop is also favored, so it’s relatively likely we don’t even see the championship rounds here.
On the other hand, those three losses for Burns came against two welterweight champions and #2 contender Sean Brady, while Morales doesn’t have a win over a ranked opponent. It’s a big step down in competition for Burns and up for Morales.
Morales should have a pretty significant striking edge, but Burns has considerable grappling upside. He landed seven takedowns on welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena before suffering a third round knockout, and Morales hasn’t had his grappling tested at the UFC level.
That’s enough for me to stack Burns in cash games and have some exposure to him in GPPs, though I will be considerably heavier on the favorite.
The Easy Chalk
Yadier DelValle ($9,200)
This pick is admittedly a little off the board, especially in the chalk section. Still, DelValle is projecting extremely well and has seen his moneyline price continue to rise for his fight against Connor Matthews ($7,000).
“The Cuban Problem” has everything you’d want in a fighter, with the possible exception of a better ring name. He’s big for the division, throws with plenty of power, and is a BJJ black belt who competed in Judo as a child in Cuba.
He wasn’t one of my favorite prospects on the Contender Series, where I worried about his striking defense and cardio. He answered the latter issue in that fight, winning all three rounds and fighting well down the stretch. The former isn’t really a concern against Matthews, whose last knockout win came in his pro debut against a fighter who was 0-7 at the time.
Matthews is 0-2 in the UFC with two knockout losses, and his best hope here is to grapple offensively. Given YDV’s abilities on the mat, I don’t think that’s a likely path. That makes the favorite an extremely safe option, with solid upside based on a finish or his own grappling ability.
Sean Zerillo and I talked about our interest in betting DelValle to win inside the distance on this week’s UFC Betting Preview:
The Upside Plays
Denise Gomes ($9,500)
There are plenty of strong options at the upper end of the price range, and I suspect a “stars and scrubs” approach to be fairly popular this weekend.
One fighter that could go overlooked is Gomes. Her fight against Elise Reed ($6,700) doesn’t have great stoppage odds at +120, and the field tends to overlook women’s fights and lighter division fights.
However, Gomes has knockouts in two of her four UFC wins, with as much power as anyone in the division save maybe the champion. Reed has been finished in all four of her UFC losses and is a +450 or so underdog.
Plus, Gomes’ huge athleticism edge should allow her to land takedowns if she chooses, giving her another path to upside. She doesn’t always lean on her grappling, but it could be her biggest edge against Reed. She’s one of my favorite GPP plays and is relatively sneaky despite her massive odds.
The Value Plays
Luana Pinheiro ($6,900)
We’ve got the classic value play example this weekend, as Luana Pinheiro checks all of the boxes. After opening as a +320 underdog, her price has narrowed to +270 for her fight against Tecia Pennington ($7,300). That alone makes Pinheiro a bit too cheap for her odds.
More importantly, this fight is the likeliest to see the judges at -425 odds, so the worst case is 15 minutes of action for the underdog. Beyond that, Pennington has a habit of making all of her fights extremely close, with two split decisions in her last three bouts as well as a unanimous decision that could’ve easily gone the other way.
Pennington is a high-volume/low-damage striker who rarely grapples offensively, making it hard for her to win rounds clearly. She’s a far better technical striker than Pinheiro, but the underdog is bigger, younger, and more athletic.
Plus, she averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes, which could help boost her score and odds of winning a tight decision. Given the need to save salary on this slate, that’s worth taking a shot.
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The Contrarian Choice
Paul Craig ($6,800)
A less obvious way to save salary on this slate is to roster Paul Craig. He’s a massive underdog against Rodolfo Bellato ($9,400) in a fight where the Under 1.5 round prop is favored, so the market thinks Craig gets finished quickly here.
However, Craig has pulled shocking upsets in similar spots in the past. The grappling specialist might have the best submission game in the UFC (save submission record holder Charles Oliveira), giving him an ace in the hole in nearly any matchup.
Bellato has initiated grappling in most of his UFC bouts, which is a hard habit to break even when it’s not in his best interest. He grappled his way into trouble in his draw against Jimmy Crute his last time out, nearly getting knocked out in the process.
Plus, Bellato might have some of the worst striking defense in the UFC. He’s shown neither ability nor desire to remove his head from the path of oncoming punches and has been knocked down three times in four fights between the UFC and Contender Series.
Bellato’s ability to recover from those shots is impressive, but he’s certainly playing with fire. Craig is a bad (to put it mildly) striker — but he throws hard. If there’s anyone who could get caught by one of the Scotsman’s wild strikes, it’s Bellato. I talked about that theory — and my betting interest in it — in my full preview of this fight.
This is, of course, a very thin play. However, with Craig’s low ownership and Bellato’s popularity, it’s a massive leverage opportunity.
The Swing Fight
Mairon Santos ($8,300) vs. Sodiq Yusuff ($7,900)
Both of the closer fights this weekend are fairly likely to see the judges, meaning there’s no obvious “Swing Fight” on the card.
I do see some value in targeting the lightweight matchup between Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos in some of my lineups, though. Yusuff lost his last two fights at featherweight before deciding to move up to 155. However, those losses came to Diego Lopes and Edson Barbosa, and Yusuff nearly won the latter in Round 1 before gassing out.
Santos seems to have stepped up to 155 just for this fight, which he took on somewhat short notice. He’s a dangerous striker but likely the smaller fighter here, assuming Yusuff put on some size for his new division.
That could exacerbate the cardio issues for Yusuff while also giving him solid stoppage odds early. Due to that, both fighters have a path to a finish, which should land them in the optimal given their price tags.
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Pictured: Michael Morales
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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