With two fight-week cancellations, we’re now down to a dozren fights in Perth, Western Australia, this weekend. These are always fun events for DFS, with a wide variety of fighters to choose from.
The 12-fight card starts at 7:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially at 10:00 p.m.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Carlos Ulberg ($9,300) vs. Dominik Reyes ($6,900)
The UFC Perth main event features a pair of ranked light heavyweights who could be one win away from a title shot. Hometown favorite Carlos Ulberg has won eight in a row since dropping his UFC debut, while Reyes rescues his career with a current three-fight winning streak, all via knockout.
At first glance, this feels like an old veteran in Reyes taking on an up-and-comer in Ulberg. Reyes first fought for the title in February of 2020, more than a year before Ulberg debuted in the promotion. However, they’re within a year of each other in age; Ulberg just got a late start due to a prior career as a kickboxer (who dabbled in both modeling and reality TV.)
The concerning thing for me about Ulberg is how conservatively he’s fought top competition. His last two fights were both close decision wins that came in under 70 DraftKings points. He had finished his previous five against lower-level competition, but Reyes’ current KO streak has come against some tougher opponents.
Ulberg is the deserving favorite here, but I’m not sure he’s all that likely to outscore the other fighters around his price range. On the other hand, any Reyes win, and even potentially some losses, would easily pay off his salary.
For that reason, I plan on being heavier on the underdog in GPPs. I’m also considering cash lineups that feature Reyes but not Ulberg. We can probably replace Ulberg’s production with his salary, but not necessarily Reyes with any of the fighters priced near him.
The Easy Chalk
Jimmy Crute ($8,900)
One of the options around Ulberg with a solid shot at putting up a better score is Jimmy Crute. He’s a slight favorite (-105) to end his fight inside the distance, but he also averages more than four takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him multiple paths to fantasy production.
He’s taking on Ivan Erslan ($6,300) in the co-main event, with Erslan likely fighting for his job after starting his UFC career 0-2. Erslan is a powerful striker but doesn’t do much else and has been taken down six times in his two Octagon appearances.
That’s a pretty obvious weakness in the part of the game Crute excels in. Fortunately, that’s also the part of the game that produces the best fantasy scores, especially with Crute’s aggressive hunting of submissions.
This one is a bit scary given Erslan’s power and Crute’s somewhat lax attitude towards defense, but there’s a clear path to a massive fantasy score.
The Upside Plays
Navajo Stirling ($9,100)
Navajo Stirling was one of my favorite prospects coming off the 2024 season of the Contender Series, where he shared the card with fellow UFC Perth fighter Josias Musasa ($8,700). Stirling trains at the famed City Kickboxing with Carlos Ulberg and is now 2-0 with a pair of decision wins following his knockout on DWCS.
Like Ulberg, he’s a former kickboxer with a patient, feint-heavy style designed to draw out counters from his opponent. He’s still just 27, though, and has already shown a more well-rounded MMA game, picking up three takedowns (against Erslan) in his last fight.
He’s taking on Rodolfo Bellato ($7,100), whose last two fights ended in a majority draw and a no contest. There’s an argument he should’ve lost both, as he was saved by the bell in the draw against Crute and arguably flopped his way to a no contest against Paul Craig.
Either way, Stirling is the much more polished striker and better athlete, and we haven’t seen Bellato find much success grappling so far in the UFC. Stirling has an excellent floor, landing over six significant strikes per minute, and a solid ceiling if he can find a finish in this one.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Play
Loma Lookboonmee ($7,000)
Finding cheap options for cash games this week is a challenge, as the majority of the bouts on the card are favored to end inside the distance. One of the few exceptions is the strawweight bout between Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara ($9,200), which is the likeliest to go all 15 minutes based on the -225 odds.
Lookboonmee has won four straight dating back to 2022 and has never been finished in the Octagon. The former muay thai fighter was fairly one-dimensional early in her MMA/UFC career but has since expanded her skill set, landing ten takedowns across her last four fights.
She’s a good bit smaller and less powerful than Thainara, who will likely look to press that advantage on the ground. However, in a full-size cage and with Lookboonmee’s solid footwork, there should be enough striking exchanges where she can pick up some fantasy points.
She’s certainly more of a floor play than a ceiling option, making her better suited for cash games. You don’t have to go this cheap — particularly if you go with Reyes only in the main event — but if you want to fit multiple heavy favorites, Lookboonmee makes it possible.
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The Contrarian Choice
Michelle Montague ($9,000)
I’m betting on an ownership discount for Montague in this one, based on it being her UFC debut and the general hesitancy to roster female fighters, especially at higher price tags.
Montague is no normal debut fighter, though. She’s a decorated combat sports athlete who has twice represented New Zealand in freestyle wrestling at the Commonwealth Games, has won multiple amateur MMA world titles, and is 6-0 as a pro, with every win coming via rear naked choke. The last four of those came under the PFL/Bellator banner, where she fought reasonably tough competition.
Training with Kayla Harrison at American Top Team, Montague is a similarly massive bantamweight. She competed in wrestling in the under 75 kg division, or 165 lbs. That makes the matchup with Luana Carolina ($7,200) even more appealing. Carolina has fought exclusively at flyweight in the UFC, though she’s missed weight twice and had a third bout cancelled due to issues cutting weight.
With Montague being both an aggressive finisher and a takedown artist, she should have no problem putting up points against an opponent who’s been taken down in seven straight fights.
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The Swing Fights
Brando Pericic ($8,800) vs. Elisha Ellison ($7,400)
We have two heavyweight fights on this card, both of which are heavily favored to end inside the distance. The first chronologically is Brando Pericic taking on Elisha “The Snack Panther” Ellison.
This fight was originally booked for the Contender Series before being inexplicably moved to an already-crowded UFC Perth card. That means this is the debut for both fighters, though the Australian Pericic has home-cage advantage.
However, I can’t figure out why he’s so heavily favored. Since losing in his 3rd pro fight, he’s fought consecutive 0-0 opponents, finishing them both in the first round. Ellison also lost his third fight but recently picked up a first-round win against an opponent who came in 6-3.
All nine of their combined wins have come in the first round, and they’re 0-2 in fights that extend past the first frame. That means this one shouldn’t take long, with a big score going to whomever emerges victorious.
Between my belief that this line should be closer and the likely low ownership on Ellison, he’s a much better DFS play from a salary standpoint. Still, I want one or the other in every lineup I make, so I’ll have some Pericic as well.
I discussed my interest in the heavyweight underdog in the latest Action Network UFC Betting Preview:
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Pictured: Carlos Ulberg
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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