UFC Nashville DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Lewis vs. Teixeira, More Saturday Fights

After a week off, the UFC is back, with a 12-fight card from the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.

Headlined by fan favorite heavyweight and UFC knockout record holder Derrick Lewis, lineups lock at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

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Main Event

Tallison Teixeira ($9,000) vs. Derrick Lewis ($7,200)

It feels like a lifetime ago that Derrick Lewis challenged for the heavyweight title, losing by rear naked choke to Daniel Cormier back in 2018. He also fought for an interim title in 2021, coming up short to Ciryl Gane.

Since then, Lewis has largely served as a springboard for future heavyweight stars, while picking up the occasional knockout to remind fans that he still can.

That’s the role he’s serving here against Teixeira, an undefeated 25-year-old making just his second walk to the Octagon. A win over Lewis instantly propels Teixeira into the title picture in a heavyweight division badly needing contenders, and he’s about -300 to do so.

It’s hard to break down Texieira’s skills, since he’s logged only about two minutes and 30 seconds of cage time between the UFC and Contender Series. Those fights came against a former welterweight in Arthur Lopes and Justin Tafa (4-5 UFC record). Prior to that, the toughest opponent he fought was 2-1.

To say this is a massive step up for Teixeira is an understatement, even if the 40-year-old Lewis isn’t quite the fighter he once was. Still, 40 isn’t horribly old in heavyweight years, and power is the last thing to go.

Lewis has also typically done well against tall fighters, with a 3-0 record against opponents standing at least 6’7″. That, plus the chalk forming around the Brazilian, is enough reason for me to be overweight on “The Black Beast” in GPPs.

I’m likely sticking with the favorite in cash games, though. The fight is basically a coin flip to end in the first round so both fighters floors are almost nothing, and the likeliest outcome is Teixeira gets the job done against the aging Lewis.

The Easy Chalk

Vitor Petrino ($9,600)

This is a strange slate in that there are four fighters with a price tag of at least $9,500 — and all four of them are at least somewhat viable. The most popular of the group is likely Petrino, who isn’t necessarily my favorite of the bunch, partially because he’s likely to be so heavily owned.

Petrino was once a top prospect at light heavyweight before suffering consecutive losses to Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby. He made some considerable fight IQ errors in both fights, attempting to grapple Smith, where he had a clear edge on the feet, but standing and trading with the former kickboxer Jacoby.

However, the athleticism and skills are clearly there and should play up nicely at his new home of heavyweight, where he’s meeting Austen Lane ($6,600). Lane is 1-3 in the UFC and fighting for his job, and he makes sense as a career rehab opponent for Petrino.

Petrino is a relatively safe choice as a -700 favorite, but I question his upside. His edge is probably more in the striking than grappling department, and he tends to fight fairly cautiously overall. With all of the grappling and finishing upside on the slate, the likeliest outcome is a solid, but not overwhelming, performance from Petrino.

That makes him a fine cash game choice, but I prefer to go more off the board for GPPs.

The Upside Plays

Fatima Kline ($9,900)

One way to go way off the board is with Fatima Kline. She’s the most expensive fighter on the slate despite her fight being favored to hit the judges, so it’s easy to see why most of the field won’t be interested in her.

However, she’s also an elite grappler, who picked up a second-round stoppage with two takedowns and two reversals in her last fight. That came against an opponent in Victoria Dudakova, who is a tougher grappler than Mellisa Martinez ($6,300), whom she faces on Saturday.

Unlike the other top fighters on the slate, that gives her multiple paths to upside, as she could pile up takedowns in an extended fight or pick up a finish on the ground. It will be hard to pay off her price tag, but I make her chances of doing so higher than her projected ownership, making her a solid GPP option.

Gabriel Bonfim ($9,300)

Gabriel Bonfim has finished 16 of his 17 professional victories, including three of four in the UFC, all via submission. He’s taking on 42-year-old Stephen Thompson ($6,900), who has been stopped in two straight fights.

This is a pretty tough stylistic matchup for Thompson, a former kickboxer and karate stylist who has clearly lost a step. With a 15-year age gap, I expect Bonfim to have a massive speed and athleticism edge, which he should use to take this fight to the ground.

The Brazilian averages over 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and is an extremely dangerous submission fighter. The knock on him has historically been his cardio, but that might not even come into play in this one.

The case for Bonfim is similar to Kline but with a $600 discount, making him an excellent option on the higher end of the salary range.

The Value Plays

Nate Landwehr ($7,300)

With all of the expensive fighters worth rostering on the card, we have to find some value somewhere. One of my favorite options is Nate “The Train” Landwehr, a Clarksville, Tennessee, native fighting in his home state against Morgan Charriere ($8,900).

He’ll have a huge home-field advantage over the French Charriere, who is 2-2 in the UFC with two knockout wins and two decision losses. Landwehr is famously resilient, coming back from the brink of knockouts on multiple occasions to win the fight.

That makes this a fairly binary fight, where the former kickboxer Charriere is dangerous early, but likely fades if he’s unable to knock “The Train” off his tracks. An underrated dynamic here is also the grappling of Landwehr.

Charriere has found success mixing in takedowns, but Landwehr has solid submissions from a front headlock position — which is where fighters end up if their takedown attempts are stuffed. A submission win would be a nice bonus for Landwehr, but any win probably gets him in the optimal at his price tag.

He also provides a reasonable floor, as his fight is one of just four on the slate favored to hit the judges — though it’s close to a coin flip.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

The Contrarian Choice

Tuco Tokkos ($7,600)

A much riskier value option on the slate is Tokkos, who is considerably better than his 0-2 UFC record would let on.

While there are two fights on the slate featuring former 205-pound fighters moving up to heavyweight, Tokkos is in the opposite situation. He’s taking on Junior Tafa, who went 2-3 as a UFC heavyweight but is now coming down to light heavyweight.

There’s a reason that typically goes in the opposite direction, as the speed and skill level of smaller fighters is usually higher. Tafa won’t even have a size edge against Tokkos, as the underdog is taller with a four-inch reach advantage.

Tafa does have massive power, though, so Tokkos’ floor is almost nothing. He’ll need to pick up some takedowns to drain the gas tank of Tafa, and he’s shown that ability in the past with three takedowns against Navajo Stirling in his last fight.

Whether Tafa’s notoriously bad ground game improves against smaller fighters is the key question. While it’s certainly possible, I don’t expect that to be the case, so I’m willing to take my chances on Tokkos in GPPs.

The Swing Fight

Steve Garcia ($8,400) vs. Calvin Kattar ($7,800)

My most anticipated fight at UFC Nashville is the featherweight bout between Calvin Kattar and Steve Garcia. Despite just a four-year age gap, these fighters are at a crossroads, with Kattar, the loser of four straight, coming into the fight and Garcia with five straight knockouts.

We’ve got an unstoppable force vs. an immovable object, as Kattar has never been truly knocked out, or even down, despite absorbing a UFC-record 445 significant strikes against Max Holloway. Garcia has exclusively won by knockout in the UFC and carries massive power.

Kattar both lands and absorbs a huge number of significant strikes, causing his fights to typically be high scoring for both him and his opponent. Both men also mix in the occasional takedown, which only further raises the ceiling.

My lean is that Garcia will be able to finally crack the chin of the 37-year-old Kattar, as all the damage Kattar has accumulated will catch up to him eventually.

If he doesn’t, Kattar should be able to take over late, so I want some exposure to both men in what should be an all-action matchup. Sean Zerillo and I had opposite stances on this fight, which further illustrates how tough the call is:

Interested in more action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Pictured: Derrick Lewis
Photo Credit: Imagn Images

After a week off, the UFC is back, with a 12-fight card from the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.

Headlined by fan favorite heavyweight and UFC knockout record holder Derrick Lewis, lineups lock at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
 

Main Event

Tallison Teixeira ($9,000) vs. Derrick Lewis ($7,200)

It feels like a lifetime ago that Derrick Lewis challenged for the heavyweight title, losing by rear naked choke to Daniel Cormier back in 2018. He also fought for an interim title in 2021, coming up short to Ciryl Gane.

Since then, Lewis has largely served as a springboard for future heavyweight stars, while picking up the occasional knockout to remind fans that he still can.

That’s the role he’s serving here against Teixeira, an undefeated 25-year-old making just his second walk to the Octagon. A win over Lewis instantly propels Teixeira into the title picture in a heavyweight division badly needing contenders, and he’s about -300 to do so.

It’s hard to break down Texieira’s skills, since he’s logged only about two minutes and 30 seconds of cage time between the UFC and Contender Series. Those fights came against a former welterweight in Arthur Lopes and Justin Tafa (4-5 UFC record). Prior to that, the toughest opponent he fought was 2-1.

To say this is a massive step up for Teixeira is an understatement, even if the 40-year-old Lewis isn’t quite the fighter he once was. Still, 40 isn’t horribly old in heavyweight years, and power is the last thing to go.

Lewis has also typically done well against tall fighters, with a 3-0 record against opponents standing at least 6’7″. That, plus the chalk forming around the Brazilian, is enough reason for me to be overweight on “The Black Beast” in GPPs.

I’m likely sticking with the favorite in cash games, though. The fight is basically a coin flip to end in the first round so both fighters floors are almost nothing, and the likeliest outcome is Teixeira gets the job done against the aging Lewis.

The Easy Chalk

Vitor Petrino ($9,600)

This is a strange slate in that there are four fighters with a price tag of at least $9,500 — and all four of them are at least somewhat viable. The most popular of the group is likely Petrino, who isn’t necessarily my favorite of the bunch, partially because he’s likely to be so heavily owned.

Petrino was once a top prospect at light heavyweight before suffering consecutive losses to Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby. He made some considerable fight IQ errors in both fights, attempting to grapple Smith, where he had a clear edge on the feet, but standing and trading with the former kickboxer Jacoby.

However, the athleticism and skills are clearly there and should play up nicely at his new home of heavyweight, where he’s meeting Austen Lane ($6,600). Lane is 1-3 in the UFC and fighting for his job, and he makes sense as a career rehab opponent for Petrino.

Petrino is a relatively safe choice as a -700 favorite, but I question his upside. His edge is probably more in the striking than grappling department, and he tends to fight fairly cautiously overall. With all of the grappling and finishing upside on the slate, the likeliest outcome is a solid, but not overwhelming, performance from Petrino.

That makes him a fine cash game choice, but I prefer to go more off the board for GPPs.

The Upside Plays

Fatima Kline ($9,900)

One way to go way off the board is with Fatima Kline. She’s the most expensive fighter on the slate despite her fight being favored to hit the judges, so it’s easy to see why most of the field won’t be interested in her.

However, she’s also an elite grappler, who picked up a second-round stoppage with two takedowns and two reversals in her last fight. That came against an opponent in Victoria Dudakova, who is a tougher grappler than Mellisa Martinez ($6,300), whom she faces on Saturday.

Unlike the other top fighters on the slate, that gives her multiple paths to upside, as she could pile up takedowns in an extended fight or pick up a finish on the ground. It will be hard to pay off her price tag, but I make her chances of doing so higher than her projected ownership, making her a solid GPP option.

Gabriel Bonfim ($9,300)

Gabriel Bonfim has finished 16 of his 17 professional victories, including three of four in the UFC, all via submission. He’s taking on 42-year-old Stephen Thompson ($6,900), who has been stopped in two straight fights.

This is a pretty tough stylistic matchup for Thompson, a former kickboxer and karate stylist who has clearly lost a step. With a 15-year age gap, I expect Bonfim to have a massive speed and athleticism edge, which he should use to take this fight to the ground.

The Brazilian averages over 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and is an extremely dangerous submission fighter. The knock on him has historically been his cardio, but that might not even come into play in this one.

The case for Bonfim is similar to Kline but with a $600 discount, making him an excellent option on the higher end of the salary range.

The Value Plays

Nate Landwehr ($7,300)

With all of the expensive fighters worth rostering on the card, we have to find some value somewhere. One of my favorite options is Nate “The Train” Landwehr, a Clarksville, Tennessee, native fighting in his home state against Morgan Charriere ($8,900).

He’ll have a huge home-field advantage over the French Charriere, who is 2-2 in the UFC with two knockout wins and two decision losses. Landwehr is famously resilient, coming back from the brink of knockouts on multiple occasions to win the fight.

That makes this a fairly binary fight, where the former kickboxer Charriere is dangerous early, but likely fades if he’s unable to knock “The Train” off his tracks. An underrated dynamic here is also the grappling of Landwehr.

Charriere has found success mixing in takedowns, but Landwehr has solid submissions from a front headlock position — which is where fighters end up if their takedown attempts are stuffed. A submission win would be a nice bonus for Landwehr, but any win probably gets him in the optimal at his price tag.

He also provides a reasonable floor, as his fight is one of just four on the slate favored to hit the judges — though it’s close to a coin flip.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

The Contrarian Choice

Tuco Tokkos ($7,600)

A much riskier value option on the slate is Tokkos, who is considerably better than his 0-2 UFC record would let on.

While there are two fights on the slate featuring former 205-pound fighters moving up to heavyweight, Tokkos is in the opposite situation. He’s taking on Junior Tafa, who went 2-3 as a UFC heavyweight but is now coming down to light heavyweight.

There’s a reason that typically goes in the opposite direction, as the speed and skill level of smaller fighters is usually higher. Tafa won’t even have a size edge against Tokkos, as the underdog is taller with a four-inch reach advantage.

Tafa does have massive power, though, so Tokkos’ floor is almost nothing. He’ll need to pick up some takedowns to drain the gas tank of Tafa, and he’s shown that ability in the past with three takedowns against Navajo Stirling in his last fight.

Whether Tafa’s notoriously bad ground game improves against smaller fighters is the key question. While it’s certainly possible, I don’t expect that to be the case, so I’m willing to take my chances on Tokkos in GPPs.

The Swing Fight

Steve Garcia ($8,400) vs. Calvin Kattar ($7,800)

My most anticipated fight at UFC Nashville is the featherweight bout between Calvin Kattar and Steve Garcia. Despite just a four-year age gap, these fighters are at a crossroads, with Kattar, the loser of four straight, coming into the fight and Garcia with five straight knockouts.

We’ve got an unstoppable force vs. an immovable object, as Kattar has never been truly knocked out, or even down, despite absorbing a UFC-record 445 significant strikes against Max Holloway. Garcia has exclusively won by knockout in the UFC and carries massive power.

Kattar both lands and absorbs a huge number of significant strikes, causing his fights to typically be high scoring for both him and his opponent. Both men also mix in the occasional takedown, which only further raises the ceiling.

My lean is that Garcia will be able to finally crack the chin of the 37-year-old Kattar, as all the damage Kattar has accumulated will catch up to him eventually.

If he doesn’t, Kattar should be able to take over late, so I want some exposure to both men in what should be an all-action matchup. Sean Zerillo and I had opposite stances on this fight, which further illustrates how tough the call is:

Interested in more action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Pictured: Derrick Lewis
Photo Credit: Imagn Images

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.