The UFC’s annual trip to Mexico City is upon us. Having learned their lesson about booking larger fighters at high elevation, we’ve got a flyweight main event between Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh, with no fights above middleweight on the card.
As is the new normal, the slate locks at 5:00 PM ET with the start of the preliminary card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Brandon Moreno ($8,700) vs. Lone’Er Kavanagh ($7,500)
Brandon Moreno continues to be a fixture on UFC events located in Mexico or themed around Mexican fighters, having appeared on last year’s Mexico City card and the “Noche UFC” event, which ultimately went down in San Antonio, Texas. The former champion is still just 32 years old but has lost three of his last five fights, including his first career stoppage loss (though it was arguably called early) last December.
However, he hasn’t fought an opponent outside of the top 10 since 2019, so this is a big step down in competition against Lone’er Kavanagh, who is making just his fourth UFC appearance. Kavanagh is also coming off a loss, getting knocked out late in the second round by Charles Johnson after dominating the first eight or so minutes of the fight.
That foreshadows what I think will be the key dynamic here, which is the cardio and pace of both fighters. Not only is this Kavanagh’s first five-round fight, but it’s also 7,000 feet above sea level in Mexico City. On top of that, he’s also a somewhat late replacement, being booked for this fight a couple of weeks ago after originally being slated to fight a three-round fight in mid-March.
The dynamic Kavanagh is a major threat early, both with his striking and his grappling, but I worry about his ability to fight into the championship rounds. He looked particularly tired after grappling with Johnson, so Moreno could exploit that and look to tire out the prospect early. Due to that, Kavanagh probably needs a finish — which of course, would lead to a big DFS score.
As would a Moreno win where he took over late, so this is a fight I want to be near 100% on in GPPs. For cash games, I’ll be stacking this one as well. There’s a huge lack of value on this slate, as we’ll discuss later, but Kavanagh also probably has a solid floor since he’s likely to put up points early, even if he fades late.
The Easy Chalk
Santiago Luna ($9,300)
I’m not entirely sure where the chalk will form on this card, since we have a whopping eight fighters at $9,000 or higher, and eight of those fights are favored to end inside the distance. Getting the best score(s) from this group will likely be the key to the slate.
The best bang-for-your-buck option is probably Luna, who has seen enough line movement this week that he’s effectively as safe as the fighters priced ahead of him, while also having the shortest odds for a first-round stoppage on the slate.
In his UFC debut, the undefeated Mexican prospect picked up two knockdowns en route to a first-round finish over Quan Le and now draws a relatively friendly matchup against Angel Pacheco ($6,900), who is 0-1 in the UFC and 0-1 on the Contender Series. While both of those losses were decisions, Pacheco was dropped on the Contender Series and has absorbed an absurd 11.47 significant strikes per minute.
With all seven of Luna’s career victories coming via finish, he’s likely to pick up another one here. He could also pile up enough significant strikes to clear 100 points even in a decision. That makes him my favorite of the $9,000+ fighters for cash games. I’ll also have plenty of him in GPPs, where I’ll be rotating my exposure among the high-upside options.
The Upside Play
Daniel Zellhuber ($9,400)
My guess is that Zellhuber might be the odd man out from an ownership standpoint among the top fighters on the slate. His fight against King Green ($6,800) is only slightly favored to end inside the distance, as the artist formerly known as Bobby comes in riding a split-decision victory in his last fight.
Of course, Green is 39 years old, a veteran of more than 50 pro fights, and has been finished nine times. It’s somewhat hard for me to see him making it 15 minutes against an action fighter like Zellhuber. While “Golden Boy” is yet to record a UFC knockout victory, he’s scored two knockdowns, plus a submission via anaconda choke.
That submission threat is a big part of my read here, and I’m betting on him to win via submission, as I detailed on the latest Action Network UFC Betting Preview show. Green will occasionally dive into grappling range when being hit, which sets up Zellhuber perfectly for his front headlock series of submissions.
It will probably need to happen in the first round for Zellhuber to make the optimal choice, but the same can be said for all of the top options. Given the likely ownership discount, I’ll be well over the field on him for this one.
Updated on 2/27/26
The Value Play
Marlon Vera ($7,300)
This is an extremely difficult slate for value options, with almost all of the fights featuring extremely wide odds and likely finishes. One potential option comes in the form of Marlon “Chito” Vera, a 35-fight veteran who has still yet to be finished inside the UFC.
He’s taking on David Martinez ($8,900) in the co-main event of the evening. I broke down this fight in detail in my betting preview for the fight, and while I’m taking a sprinkle on Martinez to become the first man to finish Vera, the fact that I’m getting +600 is a strong reflection that the market thinks Vera makes it the full 15 minutes.
If he’s able to, he’ll at a minimum have a solid floor. He lands over four significant strikes per minute and is the more likely grappler of the two in this matchup. He’s been frustratingly passive in his recent fights, so we’re taking a bit of a risk, but he’s managed to top 50 significant strikes in every fight since 2020.
On a normal slate I’d like to think we could do better, but for just $7,300 Chito provides some much-needed salary relief, which I’ll be taking advantage of.
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The Contrarian Choice
Regina Tarin ($7,600)
Another cheaper option I’m looking at is UFC debutante Regina Tarin. “Kill Bill” gets her UFC shot as a replacement for Sofia Montenegro, a few months after her Contender Series bout fell through. Ironically, it was Montenegro who replaced her in that bout, putting on a highly entertaining fight and earning a UFC spot despite a loss.
Tarin is taking on Ernesta Kareckaite ($9,100), who is 6-2 as a pro. However, her last four wins have all come via split decision. I don’t think that’s a fluke, as Kareckaite is a high-volume, low-damage striker whose weak shots don’t do much to sway the judges.
I don’t know a ton about Tarin, but she’s 7-0 with six finishes and trains out of BoneBreakers MMA in Mexico City alongside co-main event fighter David Martinez and his sister Melissa. She was also in camp for a Muay Thai fight that would’ve happened this Thursday, so she should be in good shape for what should be primarily a striking fight anyway.
I like her to get the upset outright, but at a bare minimum survive 15 minutes and put up a solid score. That’s more than enough at her salary.
The Swing Fight
Damian Pinas ($8,800) vs. Wesley Schultz ($7,400
The UFC Mexico curtain jerker features Damian “The Baba Yaga” Pinas taking on Wesley “Party Time” Schultz in a battle of two delightfully nicknamed Contender Series standouts. Pinas picked up a big first-round knockout in his tryout fight, moving to 8-1 professionally with his wins all coming inside of two rounds. His one loss came via DQ, when his opponent put on an Oscar-worthy performance selling a questionably illegal kick from Pinas in a fight that Pinas was otherwise winning.
Schultz also stole the show on his episode of the Contender Series, pulling off the rarely seen Suloev Stretch submission in his own first-round victory. Schultz is a former D3 All-American wrestler whose two career losses came against UFC vets with wrestling backgrounds (Dylan Budka and Mansur Abdul-Malik). Anytime he’s been able to land takedowns, he’s dominated, which makes for an interesting matchup against a pure striker in Pinas.
Besides the binary nature of striker vs. grappler, there’s also a cardio dynamic at play here. I’m worried that Pinas will blow his load early, as he’s never seen a third round and comes hard from the opening bell. Schultz at least has one decision win on his record, and it’s rare to see wrestlers with his pedigree wanting in the cardio department.
That means a quick finish from Pinas or a takedown-heavy win from Schultz are both well within the range of outcomes. Either one would pay off their respective salaries, so I’ll have one or the other in nearly all my lineups.
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Pictured: Brandon Moreno
Photo Credit: Imagn
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