The UFC makes their annual summer trip to Abu Dhabi this weekend. The card is headlined by fan favorite former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker taking on the fast-rising Renier de Ridder in a fight that could determine a future title challenger.
The 12-fight card has a special 12:00 p.m. ET start time, so be sure to get your lineups set early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Robert Whittaker ($8,400) vs. Renier de Ridder ($7,800)
While I’ve been somewhat disgruntled by the UFC’s relentless stream of middleweight main events, we have a good one on our hands for UFC Abu Dhabi.
Robert “Bobby Knuckles” Whittaker is a former champion whose four middleweight losses include three champions and the next title challenger. Mostly known for his striking, he’s a powerful and active striker who can push the pace for all five rounds.
Across from him is the relative UFC newcomer Renier de Ridder. A former ONE FC champion at heavyweight and light heavyweight, de Ridder has picked up three stoppage victories in his nine-month UFC tenure, including an upset over uber-prospect Bo Nickal.
de Ridder is an elite grappler and a massive middleweight, with his only career losses coming to ONE heavyweight contender Anatoly Malkin. He’s used his physical gifts and grappling acumen to manhandle the middleweights he’s fought and showed improved striking with his knockout of Nickal.
This is an extremely binary fight, as Whittaker should have a clear striking edge against the awkward de Ridder, while “RDR” is likely to dominate grappling exchanges. I’m leaning towards the slight underdog personally, but I’ll be stacking this one in cash games and taking a fairly balanced approach in GPPs.
The Easy Chalk
Ibo Aslan ($8,900)
This weekend’s card features plenty of heavy favorites in fights expected to end inside the distance, all of whom should have relatively even ownership on the slate.
Ibo Aslan stands out slightly because of his price tag. While the rest of the fighters who fit that bill are priced above $9,000, Aslan has the best first-round stoppage odds on the slate at “just” $8,900. Given the relative lack of comfortable value plays, he makes lineup construction much easier.
He’s taking on Billy Elekana ($7,300), who made his way to the UFC as a last-minute replacement at UFC 311 in January. He was dominated in that fight by fellow UFC Abu Dhabi fighter Bogdan Guskov ($7,500) and submitted in the second round.
Aslan, like Guskov, is a much more powerful fighter who brings massive power into this matchup. I’m slightly concerned about Aslan’s grappling after his first-round submission loss to Ion Cutelaba, but he’s shown solid takedown defense in every other matchup.
While Aslan is slightly riskier than some of the top plays, it’s probably worth taking that risk to save some salary, especially considering his elite first-round odds.
The Upside Plays
Shara Magomedov ($9,600)
“Shara Bullet” has become a fixture of cards in the Middle East, due to his inability to get a professional MMA license stateside. Despite that, he’s still managed to compile a 4-1 UFC record, with two knockouts and an average of nearly six significant strikes per minute.
While Magomedov’s low-output loss to Michael Page knocked his stock down a bit, he gets a huge step down in competition against Marc-Andre Barriault ($6,600) this weekend. “Powerbar” is 1-3 in his last four fights with two knockout losses and likely saved his job with his win over Bruno Silva in May.
The 35-year-old Canadian will be contending with a massive speed discrepancy against the dynamic striking of Magomedov to go along with his suspect chin. That creates upside for Magomedov even without a finish, as he’s likely to pile up massive striking volume in a longer fight.
While a finish is certainly ideal, Magomedov has scored reasonably well in his decision wins, so he won’t kill your lineup even if he doesn’t hit his ceiling.
Marcus Buchehca ($9,100)
Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida is a legendary figure in the jiu-jitsu world, to the point that he has an eponymous song by a BJJ-themed rapper. Like de Ridder, his MMA career to date has been primarily in ONE FC, where he went 5-1 with five first-round finishes. His lone career loss came to current ONE FC champion Oumar “Reug Reug” Kane.
His UFC debut matchup is arguably a step down, as he takes on Martin Buday ($7,100) in the opening bout this weekend. Buday is 15-2 as a pro, but five of his six UFC wins have come via decision, and he’s largely fought the dregs of the UFC’s notoriously poor heavyweight division.
While Buday is the more well-rounded fighter, the grappling level of Buchecha is leagues ahead. He’s also one of the rare BJJ transplants with a solid takedown game that translates well to MMA, which is ideal for DFS purposes.
My bigger concern here is that Buday is unable to get up following any of the takedowns, which limits Buchecha’s upside to a degree. If that scenario comes with a first-round submission, that’s probably still enough to propel him into the optimal lineup, though, and we may get a slight ownership since UFC-only fight fans won’t be familiar with him.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Plays
Tabatha Ricci ($7,600)
Tabatha Ricci is the classic value play here, as the underdog in the fight is likeliest to go to a decision on the card. She’s taking on Amanda Ribas ($8,600), a fellow Brazilian grappler with whom she shares many similarities.
Both women grew up grappling and hold black belts in both BJJ and Judo. Both have also made strides in the striking department in recent fights and land a bit over four significant strikes per minute on the feet. With the lack of power from both women, that gives Ricci an excellent floor.
I also rate her as the slightly better takedown artist in this matchup, though they’ll be somewhat hard to come by against Ribas. If Ricci is able to land a few of them, the ensuing control time should add up to a solid DFS score.
The hope is Ricci gets the nod in what should be a close fight, but at worst she should be able to do enough to justify her reasonable price tag as a floor play. That makes her an excellent cash game option, with some fringe GPP appeal.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
The Contrarian Choice
Said Nurmagomedov ($7,900)
Nurmagomedov is priced in a difficult position for his fight with Bryce Mitchell ($8,300), since most of the field will be looking to load up on top-tier fighters with a few budget options thrown in. For that reason, attacking the midrange of fighters should be fairly contrarian in and of itself.
I also love the matchup for the dynamic Nurmagomedov against Mitchell, who’s cutting down to 135 pounds after losing two of his last three at featherweight. Mitchell’s striking defense is a huge problem, with both losses coming after he was hurt on the feet (including one of the most brutal knockouts in UFC history at the hands of Josh Emmett).
While dropping a weight class saves Mitchell from power punchers like Emmett, Nurmagomedov is a dangerous striker in his own right. He has an elite kicking game and also attacks the body well. He’s also a bit quicker than most of the competition at Mitchell’s former weight class, which should help him on his feet.
If Mitchell is able to land takedowns, he could turn this into a bad DFS fight, but Nurmagomedov’s submission game is strong enough that he could catch Mitchell with a front choke on the attempt. That gives him multiple paths to a finish, which would easily propel him into the optimal lineup.
The Swing Fight
Jose Ochoa ($8,200) vs. Assu Almabayev ($8,000)
Part of my strategy to attack the midrange in GPPs includes the flyweight fight between Almabayev and Ochoa. Ochoa is stepping in on relatively short notice, after Almabayev’s original opponent was forced out due to an injury.
While Ochoa is 1-1 in the UFC, his loss was a close decision to Lone’er Kavanaugh, one of the most exciting prospects in the sport. He followed up that loss with a quick knockout of Cody Durden after he was able to stifle the wrestling of Durden.
He’ll need to do that again against Almabayev. Almabayev averages over four takedowns per 15 minutes in his five-fight UFC career, with his only loss coming via knockout at the hands of Manel Kape. Ochoa is a step down in competition, at least on paper, from Kape.
However, Ochoa is a similarly dangerous striker. If this one stays on his feet, he should pile up points in a hurry against Almabayev. If it doesn’t, the relentless grappling of Almabayev will also create a big DFS score. Either way, I want exposure to this fight at likely low ownership.
Interested in more action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Robert Whittaker
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC Vegas 94 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Lemos vs. Jandiroba, More Saturday Fights
UFC Abu Dhabi DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Nurmagomedov vs. Sandhagen, More Saturday Fights
UFC Vegas 105 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Murphy vs. Emmett, More Saturday Fights
UFC 317 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Oliveira vs. Topuria, More Saturday Fights
