UFC 327 lost a little bit of luster with the planned second title fight being pushed back a month, but we still have a tremendous card, headlined by the always-exciting Jiri Prochazka looking to reclaim his light heavyweight crown.
We have a 5:30 p.m ET. start time this week, with the prelims streaming on Paramount+ before the late prelims and main card also air on CBS.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
Updated on 4/10/26
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Jiri Prochazka ($8,200) vs. Carlos Ulberg ($8,000)
Since joining the UFC, Jiri Prochazka has won and lost the light-heavyweight title while amassing a 6-2 record against opponents not named Alex Pereira. With Pereira moving up to challenge for the heavyweight title, he has a chance to once again rule the division on Saturday night, where he meets Carlos Ulberg.
“Black Jag” was finished in his UFC debut but has since ripped off nine straight wins, including five knockouts. Like Pereira, he’s a former high-level kickboxer who transitioned to MMA later in his career. Despite having far less MMA experience, Ulberg is the older man at 35, but he’s also taken far less damage than Prochazka, so his age won’t be a significant factor.
What will decide this fight is Ulberg’s ability to turn it into a “clean” technical fight. He’s the much sharper technician than the wild Prochazka, who stubbornly refuses to use his hands to defend his face and seemingly needs to get rocked before waking up and fighting back. That tendency led to his defeats against Pereira, who had the power to put “BJP” away before he could mount a comeback.
Ulberg is no Pereira, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick Prochazka apart at range. However, an extended fight with Prochazka is always a risk, since he can find a finish from anywhere. Either way, the winner of this one likely posts a massive score, and the loser could do alright as well, especially if Prochazka wins in comeback fashion.
For that reason, it’s a fairly obvious cash game stack, and for GPPs, I’ll have one or the other in all of my lineups. I’ll be heavier on Prochazka myself, but there’s a compelling case for both sides of this one.
The Easy Chalk
Aaron Pico ($9,200)
This is the rare UFC slate without any massive favorites, as the most expensive fighter is Aaron Pico at $9,200 with a -278 moneyline.
The bull case for Pico is fairly obvious against Patricio Pitbull ($7,000). Pico is almost ten years younger, a better athlete at this point, and a former elite wrestler who theoretically should be able to shut down the grappling from Pitbull.
However, I’m somewhat nervous due to the poor showing from Pico in his UFC debut. He landed a few takedowns on Lerone Murphy but was unable to do anything with them before getting badly knocked out near the end of the first round. Pitbull is coming off a win over Dan Ige, though he was also dropped and defeated in his promotional debut.
The likeliest outcome here is probably a Pico decision, as his chin is sketch enough that engaging in a firefight is a bad idea, and Pitbull is an extremely strong grappler who has been submitted just once in 45 pro fights. Pitbull has only been finished thrice in his career overall, with one coming via an injury.
Given the pricing dynamics of the slate, it’s somewhat easy to afford Pico, who offers a measure of safety. However, my guess is plenty of cheaper fighters outscore him. For that reason, he’s a better cash game play than GPP option, though he’s not exactly a must in cash games either.
The Upside Play
Mateusz Gamrot ($8,600)
On the other end of the risk-reward spectrum from Pico lies Mateusz Gamrot. He’s fighting back in the rankings against Esteban Ribovics ($7,600) as a moderate (-190 or so) favorite in a relatively binary striker-vs-grappler fight.
Gamrot is, of course, the grappler. He averages more than five takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC but has been knocked down five times, with just one knockdown scored in his 12 fights for the promotion. He’s almost always been able to recover and finish the fight after taking damage, though, with his only stoppage loss via submission to Charles Oliveira – the UFC’s all-time submission leader.
Gamrot’s takedowns should be enough to control the fight against Ribovics, who has shown improved takedown defense but once allowed 11 in a single fight against Loik Radzhabov. Gamrot is by far the toughest grappler he’s faced, but Ribovics might fall into the sweet spot where he’s able to get back up but not stop repeated takedown attempts.
That would give Gamrot a massive ceiling, and his likeliest win condition involves at least three or four takedowns. Even in a decision, that’s typically enough to produce a huge score, giving Gamrot one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
The Value Play
Kevin Holland ($7,800)
Kevin Holland is both a value play by the numbers this week and, in my own estimation, of his chances against Randy Brown ($8,400).
After opening the week at +102 odds, he’s now swung to a pick ’em at DraftKings in a fight that’s roughly a coin flip to go all 15 minutes. I believe he should be an even heavier favorite, and I broke down my reasons for backing Holland in my full preview for this fight at Action Network.
The cliff notes version is that Holland, at his best, has both the physical tools and the skills to beat Brown but is being undervalued since he doesn’t always show up at his best. With a two-fight losing streak and a six-month break since his last fight (his fifth of 2025), he should be well-rested and motivated to get a win, not just put on a show against Brown.
I also question the durability of the older Brown, who was badly knocked out last November. Holland could put up points thanks to his striking volume, but he could also find a finish, either of which would be plenty of points at $7,800.
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The Contrarian Choice
Francisco Prado ($7,400)
I’ve been on Prado all week, but the line movement to his opponent Charles Radtke ($8,800) suggests I’m on a bit of an island – which also means he won’t be especially popular in DFS.
Prado is far better than his 1-4 UFC record suggests. One of those losses was a controversial split decision, and one was as a last-minute replacement, but more importantly, he entered the promotion at just 20 years old. He was also stuck between the lightweight and welterweight divisions, as he struggled to make 155 lbs but was too small for 170.
Now 23 and training at American Top Team, I expect that he’s both improved significantly and added some bulk to his frame. Radtke is 35 and on the downswing of his physical prime, with his four wins coming against the bottom of the welterweight division.
A Prado upset by any means here probably gets him into the optimal lineup, making him a solid leverage play that should go mostly overlooked. We don’t really need the salary savings in cash games, but he’s an excellent contrarian option for GPPs. That’s especially important with just 12 fights (and extremely loose salary) likely leading to plenty of duplicate lineups this week.
The Swing Fights
Curtis Blaydes ($8,400) vs. Josh Hokit ($7,800)
One of the more intriguing fights on the card is the lone heavyweight matchup between former title challenger Curtis Blaydes and Josh Hokit, who is just 2-0 in the promotion. It’s obviously a big step up in competition for Hokit, but the 35-year-old Blaydes might have his best days in the rearview mirror.
Hokit is getting a big push from the UFC thanks to his ultra-aggressive style and his wild persona. He’s also legitimately talented as a former D1 football player and wrestler who briefly spent time on some NFL practice squads. He’s been able to use that wrestling and athleticism to run over lesser competition on his way to an 8-0 pro record with all finishes.
While Blaydes isn’t the athlete Hokit is, he’ll be roughly 30 lbs heavier and was a junior college All-American wrestler. He also has far more MMA experience with 24 fights, and 35 isn’t especially old for heavyweight. However, he’s been knocked out five times in his UFC career, so a Hokit blitz certainly wouldn’t be surprising.
I expect this one to either be a quick finish from Hokit or Blaydes to rack up plenty of control time en route to a later win. Either way, the winner should end up with a big score, making it a solid swing fight. I’ll have considerably more Blaydes personally, but there’s an argument for both men.
Dominik Reyes ($8,300) vs. Johnny Walker ($7,900)
Two of the sport’s most notable “glass cannons” face off in one of three light heavyweight matchups on the UFC 327 card.
Ten of Dominick Reyes’ 14 UFC fights have ended with somebody getting knocked out, with him emerging victorious in six of those. For Walker, it’s 10 of 13 UFC bouts, with an identical 6-4 record in fights that end in KO. Both have massive power and extremely questionable chins, especially as they’re both now in their mid-30s.
It’s somewhat likely that the first meaningful exchange in this fight leads to somebody getting finished, and the close salaries mean a knockout for either is probably enough for the optimal. I make this fight pretty much a coin flip overall, but Walker is much cheaper, and Reyes is going to be one of (if not the) most popular fighters on the slate.
That makes Walker a much better GPP play from a salary standpoint, but I want some Reyes shares as well, since this fight is extremely difficult to predict.
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Pictured: Jiri Prochazka
Photo Credit: Imagn
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