After a six-week layoff, the UFC returns on Saturday with the first card of the Paramount+ era. The 13-fight card goes down at 5:00 p.m. ET, headlined by an interim lightweight title bout between Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Paddy Pimblett ($8,900) vs. Justin Gaethje ($7,300)
Due to an injury to planned co-main event fighter Kayla Harrison, UFC 324 brings us just one five-round fight. That would be the interim title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, who come into the contest ranked #4 and #5 in the UFC’s official rankings. It might not be the most deserving title fight the promotion could make, but it might be the most intriguing for a number of reasons.
The biggest reason is that we might finally get to discover if Pimblett is truly an elite fighter. He’s undefeated in the UFC but has been brought along slowly, fighting lesser competition before graduating to past-their-prime big names. While Gaethje is 37 and considering retirement if this fight doesn’t go his way, he’s much closer to his prime than past opponents like Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson were when they faced Pimblett.
The other key question is whether Gaethje has anything left. He bounced back from his brutal knockout loss at UFC 300 with a strong performance last March, but it’s not usually a great sign when a fighter says they’re planning to retire if they don’t win a bout.
Plus, we have an interesting style matchup. Pimblett is a creative grappler who relies on his chin more than any semblance of defense to survive striking encounters, though his offensive striking continues to improve. Gaethje is a former collegiate wrestler but has landed just one takedown in his UFC career, instead preferring to slug it out on the feet.
While my lean is that Pimblett’s chin and awkward style will be enough to get through this version of Gaethje, the fight is probably a closer call than the DFS salaries would indicate. On the plus side, the winner — and possibly the loser — should end up with a strong score. For that reason, I’ll be stacking this one in cash games, and including one or the other in all of my GPP lineups.
The Easy Chalk
Ty Miller ($9,300)
The salary dynamics of this slate, in which most of the fights have fairly wide lines, make spending up for any of the top fighters fairly difficult. Perhaps the best balance of safety and salary comes in the form of Miller, a UFC debutante who impressed on the Contender Series.
I actually bet against Miller in that fight, while admitting he was the stronger overall prospect. Still just 25, the Jackson-Wink product fits the archetype of some of the greats from that camp, particularly fellow welterweight Carlos Condit. Like Condit, Miller is long for the division with elite boxing and cardio, which can overwhelm opponents with his output.
Plus, he probably has an easier matchup in his UFC debut than he did on the Contender Series. He’s facing Adam Fugitt ($6,900), who is 2-3 for the promotion with stoppages in all of his losses, and one of his wins coming via a controversial split decision. Fugitt is reasonably skilled, but he’s a 37-year-old journeyman with nowhere near the physical tools of Miller.
Miller comes into this one as around a -455 favorite overall and -135 to win by finish, both solid numbers for a fighter $500-$600 cheaper than the top options on the slate.
The Upside Play
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,900)
One of those top options is Umar Nurmagomedov, who is undefeated in his career save a loss to now-former bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili last summer. Outside of that fight, he’s been dominant, piling up 21 takedowns over his last three fights, with a knockout victory prior to that.
It’s his grappling-heavy style that makes him so appealing against former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo ($6,300). While Figueiredo is a solid grappler in his own right, his game is based more on jiu-jitsu than wrestling. He’s also 38 years old, much smaller than his opponent, with bad knees and a 1-2 record in his last three fights, with the win coming via split decision.
Which explains why Nurmagomedov is a massive -1450 favorite. He’s just +125 to win inside the distance, but a decision might not be the worst outcome, since that would give him time to pile up more takedowns. That sets him apart from the other massive favorite on the card, who is more reliant on a stoppage. Plus, most lineups won’t be able to fit them both, so ownership will be divided between the two of them.
Ateba Gautier ($9,700)
That other massive favorite is Ateba Gautier, who might just be the scariest man in MMA right now. The giant middleweight is 3-0 in the UFC with three straight first-round knockouts, with each of those fights producing at least 107 DraftKings points.
That trend is unlikely to change this time as he takes on Andrey Pulayev ($6,500), who comes into the fight with a 1-1 UFC record. He hasn’t been especially impressive in any of his fights for the promotion, including the Contender Series. The UFC is pretty obviously intending this as a showcase fight for Gautier, who they (rightly) view as having superstar potential.
Gautier is -115 to win this one in the first round, better odds than Nurmagomedov has of picking up any kind of finish. It’s a tough call between them, though, as Nurmagomedov has scored more points in his last three 3-round fights than Gautier ever has, despite two going to a decision.
For that reason, plus the $200 discount, I’ll have more Nurmagomedov. He should also be somewhat less popular, making him the better GPP play — though I’ll try to build some lineups that fit both of them.
Updated on 1/23/26
The Value Play
Alex Perez ($7,500)
There are not a lot of great options on the cheaper end of the salary scale this week, especially for cash games. The one exception is Alex Perez, who checks most of the boxes I’m looking for in cash game value for his fight against Charles Johnson ($8,700).
Perez is one of just a few underdogs on the slate to see significant line movement in his favor. He opened the week as a +170 underdog but as of Thursday night has moved in to +142 at DraftKings. That’s a somewhat small but significant difference.
Crucially, he’s also the only underdog on the slate to see both line movement and be in a fight that’s favored to hit the judges’ scorecards. That means he’s both too cheap for his chances of winning and has a solid floor. That’s enough for me on a slate with tight salary, so he’ll be a foundational piece of my cash game lineups.
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The Contrarian Choice
Arnold Allen ($7,100)
However, there are some interesting cheaper GPP options on the slate. The first of those is Arnold Allen, who meets Jean Silva ($9,100) in a heavily anticipated featherweight bout between two exciting fighters.
Allen is a high-volume striker who builds as the fight goes on, in sharp contrast to the extremely aggressive Silva. If Allen, who has never been knocked down in his UFC career or finished as a pro, can survive the early onslaught, he’ll be in a great position to take over as the fight goes on.
I wrote more extensively about the stylistic matchup at play in my betting preview for this fight. From a DFS standpoint, Allen is a somewhat risky but high reward option, who could even sneak into the optimal lineup in a loss if he makes it the full 15 minutes.
Of the two fighters in this section, he’s my preferred cash game option if you need the additional salary, though he’s better suited for GPPs given how risky of an option he is against the dangerous Silva.
Derrick Lewis ($7,000)
Derrick Lewis is an even higher variance option, given that the vast majority of his 30 UFC fights have ended one of two ways: Lewis knocks his opponent out, or he loses.
“The Black Beast” is the UFC’s all time knockout leader with 16, but at age 40 remains fairly one-dimensional. He’s looking to find a home for his big right hand, and he’ll keep trying until it does. The combination of his age and limited skill set makes him a rightful underdog against the surging Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($9,200), but he’s a dangerous man to be in a cage with until the final bell.
Cortes-Acosta is making his sixth walk to the Octagon in the last ten months, with a 4-1 record across his previous five. That’s commendable, but also potentially dangerous. Besides the damage taken during the fight, that’s six training camps and probably a few weight cuts based on “Salsa Boy” typically weighing in near the heavyweight limit. Lewis has just 35 seconds of cage time in the last 20 months and is likely to be at or near full health coming into this one.
The nice thing about rostering Lewis at this salary is that he doesn’t need a quick win to pay things off; he just needs a win. If he is victorious, it’s more likely than not to be early in the fight, but one of his patented come-from-behind knockouts would still produce enough points to make it to the optimal lineup at his salary. That’s a bet I’m willing to take, especially with his ownership also likely to be fairly low.
The Swing Fight
Modestas Bukauskas ($8,400) vs. Nikita Krylov ($7,800)
I considered making Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta the swing fight, given its -275 odds to end inside the distance. However, the light heavyweight tilt between Bukauskas and Krylov is -700 to not need the help of the judges. It’s also a much closer fight, with Bukauskas just a slight favorite at -155.
I’m personally a bit surprised at the line being that close, considering the recent history of both men. Krylov has been knocked out in the first round of each of his last two fights, both in the first round. Bukauskas went 1-3 in his first UFC stint but returned in 2023 and has gone 6-1 since then.
Still, Krylov is just 33, so he isn’t exactly washed and could’ve simply run into some tough matchups last year (potentially exacerbated by a quick return to the cage following the first defeat). The market has this one as fairly close, so I don’t want to overdo my Bukauskas exposure at the expense of Krylov.
Given their close salaries and the overwhelming likelihood of a stoppage, I am fairly confident that whomever wins will end up in the optimal lineup, so I want one or the other in the vast majority of my GPP lineups.
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Pictured: Paddy Pimblett
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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