It’s international fight week, which means the UFC’s annual star-studded card. Going down in Las Vegas, UFC 317 gives us a pair of title fights in the lightweight and flyweight divisions.
The 11-fight card starts at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the main card at 10:00.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Ilia Topuria ($9,300) vs. Charles Oliveira ($6,900)
In his brief stint as the featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria established himself as a legend killer. He became the first man to knock out Alexander Volkanovski at featherweight and the first to knock out Max Holloway ever, dominating two of the division’s best-ever fighters.
He’ll need to perform a similar feat this Saturday to claim a new title, as he faces all-time lightweight great Charles Oliveira in the main event. Oliveira is a former champion who holds the UFC record for most finishes in UFC history and is still just 35 years old.
While Oliveira has been knocked out before, the last time it happened on the feet was nearly 13 years ago. He has arguably the best jiu-jitsu for MMA of any fighter ever and creates a tough puzzle to solve for his opponents.
Seven years younger and coming off consecutive wins against divisional greats, Topuria is a deserving favorite here. I’m not sure the line — and thus DFS salaries — should be this wide, though. He likely needs a knockout or striking-based decision to win this one, and that’s a tall order against a bigger and longer opponent.
I’m stacking this one for cash games since both fighters have massive finishing upside, but I’ll be well overweight the field on the underdog for GPPs.
Co-Main Event
Alexandre Pantoja ($9,000) vs. Kai Kara-France ($7,200)
With both Topuria and Islam Makhachev vacating their respective titles, Pantoja now has the most consecutive title defenses of any male UFC champion and could surpass Zhang Weili for the overall lead on Saturday.
He’s looked fairly unbeatable in his time as champion, with 26 takedowns spread out across his four title fights. Pantoja never landed more than three takedowns in a non-title fight and has now achieved that mark in four straight.
While that has helped him reach new levels as a fighter, it’s also made him an elite DFS option. Three of his four title wins produced over 140 DraftKings points, with the worst of the bunch going for 103. That grappling prowess should also serve him well against Kara-France, who is primarily a striker.
Pantoja used takedowns, and the threat of them, to defeat Kara-France on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016. KKF is also 1-2 over his last three and is getting a title shot based more on availability than on an elite resume.
Since I try to avoid stacking multiple fights in cash games, I’m fine with leaving Kara-France out of my lineups. He’s not a bad play by any stretch in a fight that’s favored to see the championship rounds, but he’s not a mandatory option either. I might sprinkle Kara-France in a few GPP lineups, but otherwise I’ll be heavy on the champion.
The Easy Chalk
Jacobe Smith ($9,900)
I’m not sure what Niko Price ($6,300) did to deserve this matchup, but he’s clearly angered somebody in the UFC’s matchmaking department.
Jacobe Smith has a chance to close as the heaviest favorite ever in the UFC on Saturday, with his odds currently as high as -3000 on FanDuel. The former Big-12 wrestling champion is also fairly heavily favored to end the fight in the first round, as he did in his UFC debut in January.
His previous appearance for the promotion was on the Contender Series, where he was also a massive favorite. He needed two rounds to finish the job there, but the seven takedowns he landed in the process would’ve also made for a fine DFS score.
Price will have no answer for Smith’s wrestling, and he has two knockout losses in his past four fights. Smith is -300 to make that three out of five, and the only question is if he does it early enough to pay off his massive DFS salary.
At $9,900, he’s not exactly “easy” chalk, but he’s an extremely safe play with massive upside who is worth trying to find the salary for.
The Upside Play
Gregory Rodrigues ($8,800)
This truthfully isn’t a great slate at the top of the price range outside of the title fights and Smith, but I have some interest in Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues.
The Brazilian favorite is a kill-or-be-killed fighter, with five of seven UFC wins coming via knockout and two of his three losses. He was also able to land three or more takedowns in each of his decision wins, giving him a reasonably solid score even in fights that hit the judges.
He’s taking on the veteran Jack Hermansson ($7,800) in the featured prelim fight. Hermansson has consistently sent up-and-coming fighters back down the rankings in his UFC career but is now 37 years old and has fought just one since 2022.
While he is a solid wrestler and submission grappler, he will likely struggle to find success against Rodrigues, a former BJJ world champion and Brazilian wrestling team member. Hermansson is crafty on his feet but far less explosive than his Brazilian opponent.
Rodrigues’ fast pace also means he tends to slow down if he can’t get an early finish, which makes him somewhat risky against a difficult-to-finish veteran. As such, his ceiling is high but his floor is low, making him a GPP-only option.
The Value Plays
Beneil Dariush ($7,800)
There’s plenty of mid-range value on Saturday’s card, with plenty of options who’ve seen considerable line movement or are likely to put up a decent floor in 15-minute fights.
Perhaps my favorite of those is Dariush, who is set to take on Renato Moicano ($8,400) after their January matchup was cancelled due to Moicano being elevated to the main event.
I pointed out in my Luck Ratings this week that the line had already adjusted towards Dariush since the first booking, and I bet on Dariush at plus money, expecting further movement. That’s happened, with the former underdog now essentially a pick ’em.
Stylistically, Dariush has only lost to fighters with big one-shot power, which Moicano certainly doesn’t have. Moicano has struggled to beat fighters he can’t outgrapple, which certainly describes Dariush. Dariush is a multiple-time no-gi world champion at colored belts and is bigger and stronger than Moicano.
That makes this a tough stylistic matchup for Moicano and a great one for Dariush. I like him to score the upset here at an underdog price.
Payton Talbott ($7,500)
Talbott checks both boxes this week, as he’s seen line movement his way, and his fight is one of just three on the card favored to see a decision.
He’s taking on Felipe Lima ($8,700) in an exciting matchup between two young prospects. Talbott closed as a -1150 favorite in his fight with Raoni Barcelos earlier this year but was outwrestled en route to a boring decision loss.
He’s an extremely dynamic striker, though, with quick knockouts in his previous two wins. He should have a willing dance partner on his feet in Lima, as “Jungle Boy” is a dynamic striker who throws caution to the wind with leaping and spinning attacks.
That wildness will leave plenty of opportunities for the more disciplined Talbott to land counterstrikes. I worry about Talbott’s grappling defense being exploited again here, but he’s young and athletic enough that we should expect him to have improved that since his last appearance.
At worst, he’s a solid floor play thanks to his outlandish striking pace of 6.73 significant strikes per minute. At best, he picks up another quick knockout and breaks the slate.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
The Contrarian Choice
Alvin Hines ($7,100)
I’m willing to admit I don’t know a ton about Alvin “Goozie” Hines as a fighter. The LFA vet is stepping in on somewhat short notice to make his UFC debut against Jhonata Diniz ($9,100), and Hines’ most notable win is his pro debut against future Contender Series fighter Phillip Latu.
However, Diniz is an extremely one-dimensional kickboxer who was dominated on the ground against Marcin Tybura in his last fight. Goozie has at least high school-level wrestling experience in his native Minnesota and has finished most of his fights on the ground.
That might be enough in this matchup, so long as he can survive some exchanges on the feet. That’s a big if, and the likeliest outcome is Diniz picks up an early knockout.
At Hines’ price tag and projected ownership, he doesn’t need to do a ton to justify some exposure. He likely scores fairly well in a win thanks to some takedowns being a necessary part of the process, but that would just be icing on the cake.
The Swing Fight
Terrance McKinney ($8,600) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev ($7,600)
Every UFC fight for Terrance McKinney has ended in one of two ways: a first-round win for “T Wrecks” or a finish for his opponent.
That’s not hyperbole; that describes all ten of his bouts for the promotion. He has six first-round finishes, two within the first minute, and four losses evenly split between first- and second-round finishes.
Given the salary dynamics in his fight against Borshchev, a first-round finish for McKinney or a later finish for “Slava Claus” would land either man in the optimal lineup fairly easily.
I’m leaning towards the underdog here, as Borshchev, while not without his flaws, has never been knocked out as a professional. That’s despite facing heavy hitters like Nazim Sadykhov (4-0-1 UFC record with three knockouts), whom he took to a majority draw.
McKinney has a solid submission game as well, though, so I’ll also have some exposure to him. More importantly, this fight is -1000 to end inside the distance, which means I’ll have one piece from it in all of my GPP lineups.
Interested in more action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Alexandre Pantoja
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC Vegas 63 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Kattar vs. Allen, More Saturday Fights
UFC On ESPN 34 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Holland vs. Thompson, More Saturday Fights
UFC Austin DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Tsarukyan vs. Dariush, More Saturday Fights
UFC 296 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Covington vs. Edwards, More Saturday Fights
