We have a massive 15-fight card for UFC 271 featuring a middleweight championship rematch between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker in the main event. The co-main event is a heavyweight clash between Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa that promises fireworks — during the fight and afterwards. Lineups lock at 6 p.m. ET, so get building.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Israel Adesanya ($9,200) vs. Robert Whittaker ($7,000)
Adesanya is a fairly heavy favorite in this fight as he looks to dispatch Whittaker for a second time and retain his middleweight crown. Most of the time, this would be a fairly straightforward play — lock Iz into most of your lineups and go from there. This is the only five-round fight on the card, and “The Last Stylebender” is a heavy enough favorite that I’m comfortable with a full fade of Whittaker here.
However, this might be one of the few cards where neither five-round fighter makes his way into the optimal lineup by the end of the night. This was actually the case last week, where Sean Strickland didn’t score enough points to pay off his salary, even with the extra two rounds. That was the first time in at least 14 events (finding data on past DraftKings DFS contests is difficult) though.
However, there’s a higher than usual chance that’s the case again. Adesanya is fairly expensive, and this card is full of heavy favorites with chances to put up monster scores. Iz hasn’t topped 106 DraftKings points in his last four wins — including two knockouts. We have six fighters with 100-point ceiling projections, and two of them are over 106. If Adesanya finishes around 100 points, but two or three other fighters best him, it’s hard for him to be in the winning lineup.
He would need a finish to even challenge that number, given his relatively low activity rate. Adesanya prefers to sit back and use his huge reach to snipe at his opponents, rather than overwhelm with volume. This is an incredibly effective strategy for him as a fighter but isn’t the most fantasy friendly.
The odds of him pulling off a stoppage aren’t especially high either. DraftKings currently has it at +150 for him to win by either knockout or submission, with multiple other fighters having better odds (at similar — or better — price tags.)
The path to fantasy success is relatively simpler for Whittaker though. At his price tag, any win should see him in the optimal lineup. Whittaker has the added benefit of being the more active striker in general, attempting an extra 15 strikes per round. His best chance towards getting a win is through picking up a takedown though, which is easier said than done against Adesanya.
Adesanya is sporting a tremendous 80% Takedown Defense Rate (per ufc.com), with the majority of his allowed takedowns coming against Jan Blachowicz at 205 pounds. I don’t like Whittaker’s odds of bringing this fight to the ground, given the difficulty of getting close enough to even attempt a takedown.
This adds up to a situation where I’m comfortable fading both fighters in GPPs, though I’ll mix in a bit of Whittaker. We don’t just want fighters who win, we want fighters who win and score enough points to be in the winning lineup. Whittaker has the shortest path there, but most of my lineups will be without either of them.
The Easy Chalk
There’s an unusually high number of heavy favorites on the card, leading to six fighters (Adesanya included) checking in at over $9,000 in DraftKings salary. The three listed below have the highest median projections, though it’s fairly difficult to fit all three. Most of my builds will feature two of the more expensive fighters, including those that don’t make the cut for this article. At this price range, we need more than just a win, so we want to target fighters with either significant odds of a stoppage or exceedingly high volume.
Carlos Ulberg ($8,900)
The decorated kickboxer (and Adesanya teammate) will have another shot at getting his first UFC win, this time against Fabio Cherant ($7,300). Ulberg is a heavy favorite and leads our median and ceiling projections despite being only the eighth-most expensive fighter on the card.
Of course, that was the case for Ulberg the last time out when he suffered a fairly surprising second-round knockout at the hands of Kennedy Nzechukwu. Nzechukwu is a far better fighter than Cherant, though. The former is 3-2 in the UFC, with his only losses coming to Paul Craig and Da Un Jung — both formidable opponents.
Cherant on the other hand is 0-2 in the UFC, with two first-round losses. Cherant also lost his Contender Series bout by second-round knockout before winning a few fights on the regional scene and making his way to the UFC anyway. He’s lost any time he’s stepped up to face world class competition.
While there’s some debate about whether Ulberg fits that bill as an MMA fighter, his striking is certainly world class. He’s a high level kickboxing champion with limited MMA experience. That shouldn’t be a problem against Cherant though. Cherant is yet to attempt a takedown in his UFC career.
With odds of winning by knockout around -135, Ulberg provides both safety and upside for this one. At $8,900, he’s also a bit cheaper than the other heavy favorites. That makes the score we need from him to win a tournament considerably lower. He’s an incredibly hard fade here. I may mix in a Cherant lineup or two on the off chance he’s able to make this into a grappling affair, but otherwise going heavy on Ulberg is the obvious play.
Kyler Phillips ($9,400)
Phillips sits just behind Ulberg in our median projections and is tied for the heaviest favorite on the card at -450. Phillips is 3-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to Raulin Paivia. He’s taking on Marcelo Rojo ($6,800), who lost his UFC debut by knockout.
This is a fairly curious bit of matchmaking with Phillips facing a winless UFC fighter despite rising through the ranks. Phillips has a very aggressive wrestling style as he’s picked up 11 takedowns in four UFC fights. He also strikes at an above average rate. This comibination could contribute to Phillips putting up a big score, especially if paired with a stoppage. He’s -150 to do just that.
Still, it hasn’t translated to big fantasy scores for Phillips yet. Even in his lone stoppage victory, he scored only 98 DraftKings points. That’s respectable to be sure, but probably not enough for a fighter at $9,400 (especially if Ulberg, Jeremiah Wells, or others around that range put up significantly more points).
Our models like him though because he trails only Ulberg in median and ceiling projection. He’s an extremely safe cash game pick, but I won’t be too heavy on him for tournaments.
Jeremiah Wells ($9,100)
Wells is perhaps the unluckiest fighter in the UFC. He was set to make his UFC debut in June of 2020 but was unable to do so until September because of a series of unfortunate events. Since then, he’s been booked for two fights that were cancelled before making his sophomore appearance at UFC 271.
He’ll be doing so against Mike Mathetha, whom DraftKings insists on referring to as “Blood Diamond ($7,100).” Mathetha is another teammate of Adesanya’s who made a name for himself on the kickboxing scene — allegedly racking up over one hundred wins and just one loss.
Mathetha is only 3-0 in professional MMA though, much like Ulberg was when he made his debut. Unlike Ulberg’s opponent though, Wells is both willing and able to bring fights to the ground. Wells is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie and has three professional wins by submission. He will certainly be the underdog for as long as this fight remains standing — but I wouldn’t count on that being a long time.
Besides, Wells has considerable power when he does strike, as evidenced by his knockout win in his debut. It’s not the best strategy against a kickboxing veteran, but if Wells can’t secure a takedown, he still has a puncher’s chance with it standing (It’s also much more difficult to strike effectively while worrying about an opponent taking you down. Mathetha will have that worry — Wells won’t.).
Wells is a -250 favorite here and trails only Ulberg and Phillips in median projection. Wells has the least upside of the trio though. He could turn this fight into a relatively slow paced “wall and stall” matchup and not score enough points to justify his salary even with a submission win. Those tend to produce fewer points anyway, since fighters can win by submission without added points for strikes landed and a knockdown.
I’ll be approaching this one similar to Ulberg vs. Cherant, where I mix in a bit of Mathetha but am heavy on Wells overall.
The Upside Play
Alexander Hernandez ($7,700)
Alexander “The Great” (of course) Hernandez has the widest range of outcomes of any fighter on the card. He’s a +145 or so underdog as he takes on Renato Moicano ($8,500) in lightweight action. While Hernandez is the underdog here, he brings a ton of upside.
Hernandez has a Knockdown Rate roughly twice the divisional average. He has won by (T)KO in three of his five UFC wins, all in the first round. That’s a solid setup for the bout against Moicano, who was knocked out in three of his past UFC fights. He won the other two, but his chin is certainly suspect.
At Hernandez’s current salary, any stoppage victory essentially guarantees his placement in the optimal lineup. He brings solid volume to the table as well, attempting strikes and takedowns at an above average rate. Hernandez is one of only two fighters who costs fewer than $8,000 and has a 90-point or better ceiling projection in our models.
The Contrarian Approach
William Knight ($7,500)
“Knightmare” is facing Max Grishin ($8,700) in prelim action in what is now a heavyweight bout. The fight was originally scheduled in the 205-pound division, but Knight evidently had some trouble making weight. He weighed in at 218 pounds, a very significant 12-pound miss.
Historical betting data on fighters missing weight is inconclusive, with no clear edges. However, this is a different situation. Knight was one of the first fighters to weigh in Friday morning. That means this was somewhat planned, and he wasn’t draining himself to get as close as possible. He probably could’ve gotten closer, but knew he would fall short of the limit.
Grishin on the other hand, weighed in at the limit shortly before Knight. I expect him to be somewhat depleted from the usual weight cut while fighting a much larger opponent. That’s a disadvantageous situation to be in. Do yourself a favor and do an image search for Knight – dude is a monster.
Even without the weight factor, I like Knight here. Knight is 3-1 in the UFC coming into this bout, with an impressive win over Alonzo Menifield his last time out. He has plus-power, with double the UFC average in Knockdowns per Round. He’s a solid grappler as well, picking up the occasional takedown.
Grishin is 1-2 in the UFC, with his only win the finale of a four-fight losing streak for his opponent (Gadzhimurad Antigulov) who was then cut from the UFC. We haven’t seen him pick up a win against a high-level opponent yet, and at 37 years old, it’s hard to see much improvement coming for him at this point in his career.
All of this points to Knight having far better odds of winning than his salary suggests. That’s enough at his salary, but his (reasonably high) odds of picking up a finish are an added bonus. Ownership should be relatively low on Knight as well. I’m planting my flag on Knight for tournaments and including him in 100% of my lineups. While this could (clearly) go wrong, I’d like to be in a position for maximum profit if he pulls it off.
The Swing Fight
Derrick Lewis ($8,800) vs. Tai Tuivasa ($7,400)
Two of the division’s most explosive — and reckless — strikers are squaring off in the people’s main event (though according to the UFC and the linear nature of time, it’s the co-main). Neither man has much of an interest in anything other than throwing heavy punches, save drinking beer from shoes and giving hilarious interviews.
I don’t have any particularly strong takes on who’s likelier to win this one. Two giants will trade leather, and one of them will end up unconscious in fairly short order. I will say though, the pricing (and betting odds) is split much wider than they should be. Tuivasa is more than eight years younger and riding a four-fight win streak.
That makes him the plus-EV play here, though I want exposure to both fighters. Lewis is arguably more well rounded, mixing in the (very occasional) takedown into his arsenal. If he goes that route, he could wear Tuivasa out early before knockout hunting later in the fight.
Regardless, it’s very likely that the winner of this ends up in the optimal lineup at night’s end. I’ll be setting an optimizer rule to include one of the other in every lineup I build. I prefer to be slightly heavier on Tuivasa though. He has a similar ceiling projection and allows you to fit an extra heavy favorite in your lineup if using him over Lewis.
Photo Credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Pictured above: UFC opponents Israel Adesanya (left) and Robert Whittaker (right)
