Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10 million in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
Cognizant Classic One and Done picks are live, and at first glance, this week looks like one of the easier decisions of the season. The field is thin, the odds board opens up fast, and one name at the top has a course history that practically makes the pick for you.
That is exactly where the potential trap is.
We’ll break down why below, plus a few other Cognizant Classic picks worth a real look this week.
Best Cognizant Classic One and Done Picks
With several notable withdrawals already on the books, including Genesis winner Jacob Bridgeman, Ben Griffin, and Adam Scott, the top of the odds board has compressed. No one is priced shorter than around 14 to 1. The field looks approachable.
Pull up the odds, see a familiar name at the top with a strong course history, and the pick feels obvious.
But there is a problem hiding inside that obvious pick.
The Shane Lowry Dilemma
Shane Lowry is going to be one of the most popular Cognizant Classic One and Done picks of the week. Not just popular for this event.
By our projections at PoolGenius, he is tracking toward the highest single-player ownership figure we have seen at any tournament so far this season, approaching 20-25% of picks in a typical pool.
His Course History Looks Great
It is not hard to understand why. He has played here six straight years. He has three top-five finishes at PGA National. A few years back he was a rain gust away from winning the thing outright.
People know his name, they know the history, and in a field without a lot of star power, they are going to gravitate to the most recognizable face with the best track record.
Here is where it gets more complicated, though.
PGA National Has Changed
Most of that course history was built at a version of PGA National that no longer exists.
For years, the Champion Course at PGA National was one of the most demanding tests on the PGA Tour. Winners regularly held up trophies at single-digit under-par scores. The Bear Trap stretch ate up leaderboards. Grinding, scrambling, and bogey avoidance were the skills that mattered most.
That changed last year. The course was overseeded, which made the fairways and greens considerably easier to hold. The result was a completely different scoring environment. Jake Knapp opened the 2025 Cognizant Classic with a 59. What was once a survival test became something much closer to a birdie festival, and the modeling that used to favor Lowry, with his strong approach play and scrambling, no longer applies the same way.
What Does This Mean?
When you rebuild the model around the current course conditions, heavy on birdie creation, par-five scoring, and driving distance, Lowry falls well down the rankings despite his recognizable name and history here.
His par-five scoring numbers are not strong, his distance has declined at 38 years old, and his conversion rate when he gets into contention has been a persistent issue for years.
Should You Pick Lowry?
Lowry might finish top 10 again. He very well could. But in a large pool where 24% of your competition is already on him, a top-10 finish does almost nothing for you. And if he misses, you are in great shape relative to a huge chunk of the field.
For smaller pools where the chalk is fine, Lowry is a defensible pick. For larger pools where leverage matters, the ownership alone is reason enough to at least pause.
This Is Exactly the Decision the PoolGenius Tool Is Built For
The Lowry decision is a perfect example of why One and Done pools are harder than they look.
The surface case is strong. The deeper case is more complicated. And whether the right answer is to ride the chalk or go elsewhere depends entirely on your pool size, your payout structure, how many tournaments are left on your schedule, and what you still have available.
PoolGenius built the Golf One and Done Picks Optimizer to untangle exactly this kind of week.
It takes your pool specifics, including size, payout structure, total events, and golfers already used, and turns them into weekly pick grades and a full season plan. You can see at a glance whether Lowry makes sense in your format, and which alternatives grade out better if the popularity is a problem for you.
Try it ahead of the Cognizant Classic with a free trial.
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What the Tool Shows for Cognizant Classic Picks
For standard pools with 30 or more events and a meaningful number of entries, the strategic picture this week has some consistent themes.
Nicolai Højgaard
Højgaard’s ball-striking has been among the best in the field over any recent sample, and he has something extra to play for as he tries to hold his position in upcoming Signature Event fields.
At projected ownership of around 13%, he offers a real leverage case on top of the win equity.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Thorbjornsen is another strong fit, ranking near the top of the field in both birdie-creation rate and strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds.
He has the talent and ceiling to win in a week like this and enough recent form to make the case that this is a good spot to use him rather than save him.
Max McGreevy
McGreevy is the leverage play of the week. He sits inside the top 10 in outright odds while projecting to be picked by only around 1 to 3% of pools.
He finished fourth here last year, and his ball-striking profile fits what the current PGA National setup rewards. That gap between odds and ownership is where edges are found.
Ryan Gerard
Gerard is another name worth careful consideration before clicking. He has been in excellent form to start the season, and he will be one of the more popular picks this week at roughly 15% projected ownership.
The case is real. The question is whether a player with that kind of future value in high-purse events is best deployed at a Tier 3 stop and whether paying 15% chalk on a wide-open week is the right call when the field offers so many alternatives at a fraction of the ownership.
Get Your Golf One and Done Cheat Sheet for the Cognizant Classic
The Cognizant Classic is a week where the easy pick is right on the surface, and for many pools, it might actually be the right answer. The problem is knowing whether your pool is one of them.
The PoolGenius One and Done Tool makes that call straightforward.
Enter your pool settings once, and the optimizer shows you exactly how each golfer grades relative to your format, your remaining schedule, and the players you have already used.
The season planner shows the downstream impact of every decision, so you are never just picking for this week in isolation.
The edge is not always avoiding chalk. Sometimes it is confirming the chalk is right for your situation. Most of the time, there are better paths hidden a tier or two down the board. The tool shows you which is which.
Grab your free trial today. No credit card required.
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Pictured: Max McGreevy
Photo Credit: Imagn
