The Low End Theory, Part 2: Low-Total RB
When I first wrote about low-total quarterbacks, I wasn’t sure if I would continue to look at cheap players at other positions, so I didn’t give it a fancy title. I simply asked the question, “Is it OK to Roster Quarterbacks from Games with Low Vegas Totals?”
Now that it’s a series, it deserves a title. And since I’m really dope fresh fly wicked-cool old, I thought of A Tribe Called Quest. So with much respect to Q-Tip, Phife Dawg, and Ali Shaheed Muhmmad, I bring you The Low End Theory.
And oh sh*t, Skeff Anslem, he gets props too.
This edition: Low-total running backs.
Please refer to the first installment of this series to find out why, for the purposes of this article, we’ll consider any game with a total of 46 and higher to be a ‘high-total game’ and anything played with a total of 45.5 or lower a ‘low-total game.’
What High-Total and Low-Total Running Backs Look Like
Per our Trends tool, running backs playing in games with a total of at least 46 points have traditionally netted +0.27 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 37.2 percent Consistency (the percentage of time a player meets or exceeds salary-based expectations).
Their low-total brethren, playing in games with totals of no more than 45.5 points, average 0.74 points per game fewer while yielding a -0.20 Plus/Minus with 35.6 percent Consistency.
Let’s take a deeper look at the low-total RBs to see if we can uncover any actionable data for DFS purposes.
Speaking In the Third Person
Matthew Freedman quotes himself. It’s what he does. I’m not comfortable quoting myself. (Sh*t, did I quote myself twice in the intro?) I’m not sure if Freedman speaks about himself in the third person, but if the opportunity arose, I imagine he would. [Editor’s Note: Freedman’s probably egomaniacal enough to quote himself in the third person even if the opportunity doesn’t arise.]
Ah, yes, opportunity. That’s where I was going.
Choosing a low-total RB who gets no opportunity wouldn’t be very smart. In fact, the more opportunity we can get these dudes, the better.
Touches, targets, snaps: I’ll take them all.
Low-total RBs who have a rushing attempt average of at least 10 per game suddenly smash value with a +1.72 Plus/Minus and 53.0 percent Consistency. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s a Plus/Minus improvement of +1.92 and a Consistency improvement of 17.4 percentage points on the baseline low-total RB averages.
If you find one of these backs with at least six Pro Trends, the Plus/Minus increases to +3.54 and the Consistency rises to a beautiful 66.2 percent. You should consider rostering them.
The low-total RB who gets an average of at least four targets per game sees his Plus/Minus jump to +1.53 with 54.5 percent Consistency. Another large improvement over the baseline.
Add in at least six Pro Trends and you’ve got yourself a +3.01 Plus/Minus with 66.2 percent Consistency.
Averaging more than 25 snaps per game is another herald of positive performance, as these low-total RBs manage to produce a +1.36 Plus/Minus with 50.8 percent Consistency.
Make sure your 25-snap back also has six Pro Trends and his Plus/Minus is +3.08 with amazing 64.1 percent Consistency.
Combining Opportunities
It’s clear that there is value to be found in low-total RBs with opportunity. Whether the opportunity comes from carries, targets, or even snaps, the impact opportunity has on value is undeniable.
So what happens when we combine opportunities? Let’s find out.
A low-total RB who gets both 10 carries per game and four targets is pure Plus/Minus gold. Such a back traditionally accounts for a +2.02 Plus/Minus with a whopping 59.8 percent Consistency.
If you recall, the baseline low-total RB meets or exceeds salary-based expectations only 35.6 percent of the time, with a negative average Plus/Minus. The increase in both point production and dependability for the dual-threat low-total RB is massive.
The low-total RB who plays an average of 25 snaps and gets at least 10 carries doesn’t benefit from any discernible difference over the back who gets 10 carries: The results in terms of Plus/Minus and Consistency are nearly identical.
Similarly, adding the four targets to the 25 snaps doesn’t get us anything we can’t find in targets alone.
Both of those findings make sense. On a per-snap basis, any RB who gets at least 10 carries or four receptions is also likely to get at least 25 snaps (or pretty close to that).
I Wear Your Granddad’s Clothes
I don’t actually wear your granddad’s clothes. That would be really f*cked up if I did.
I am, however, gonna pop some tags at the thrift shop with our Bargain Rating metric.
Why try and figure out what running backs are priced appropriately on your own? You might as well let FantasyLabs do all the bargain shopping for you: Low-total RBs with Bargain Ratings of at least 60 have historically produced a +1.41 Plus/Minus with 46.2 percent Consistency.
Finding yourself a bargain back who also gets himself an average of 10 carries per game and BOOM! You’ve got yourself a player who has customarily delivered a +2.07 Plus/Minus with 52.7 percent Consistency.
Combine the Bargain Rating of at least 60 with at least four targets and you’ll sacrifice a chunk of Plus/Minus but gain a wee-bit of Consistency, albeit with a much rarer animal.
The low-total RB who sees an average of 25 snaps per game and has a Bargain Rating of 60 plus has generally generated a +1.85 Plus/Minus with 51.8 percent Consistency.
Vegas, Baby
Sometimes LeGarrette Blount goes absolutely ham and rushes for 148 yards and three touchdowns, like that time in the 2014 AFC Championship when the Patriots smashed the Colts.
Why am I telling you this now? Partly because I hate the Colts — but mostly because Blount did the majority of his damage in that game after the score was already 31-7.
Running backs, arguably more than any other position, can benefit from a positive game script, especially in today’s NFL.
Teams with a late lead (usually gained from passing) will often run the ball. Vegas is good at figuring out who will win (and thus generally lead) games. You should use Vegas to your advantage.
It might not look great at first, but if you simply make the low-total RB a Vegas favorite then his Plus/Minus improves by +0.24 points and he adds 1.3 points to his Consistency.
Get that favored low-total RB an average of 10 carries per game and the Plus/Minus leaps to +2.18 along with a Consistency that sky-rockets to 55.6 percent.
If you put this same back at home, he has conventionally contributed a big-time +2.87 Plus/Minus with delicious 59.0 percent Consistency.
If it’s targets you prefer, it’s targets you will get. Even more impressively, our favored low-total RB receiving an average of at least four targets per game has produced a +2.37 Plus/Minus with 59.3 percent Consistency.
But you don’t want the heavily targeted, favored, low-total RBs at home: They actually lose some Plus/Minus and Consistency there. You want them on the road, where they put up ridiculous numbers.
Forgetting about targets and carries: A favored, low-total RB who averages at least 25 snaps per game prefers to be at home, where they traditionally produce a +2.21 Plus/Minus with 56.4 percent Consistency.
And, finally, the low-total RB who is favored and also has a minimum of six Pro Trends has previously supplied a very healthy +3.61 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 62.9 percent Consistency.
Reviewing What We Learned
There is plenty of value to be found in low-total running backs. Knowing where to look for this value could be invaluable in tournament roster construction.
Here are some guidelines:
— Opportunity truly is everything. Above all else, make sure that your low-total RB is getting carries, targets, and/or at least 25 snaps per game. If you can combine carries and targets, you will profit even further.
— Use our Pro Trends. Adding Pro Trends to opportunity delivers chunks of additional Plus/Minus and really increases Consistency.
— Bargain Rating alone is good. Bargain Rating plus opportunity is awesome.
— Leverage Vegas for positive games scripts, especially for RBs getting carries and playing at home. A target hog who’s favored on the road could be GPP gold.
Next week: Low-total wide receivers.
