This week, we published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. Within this FantasyLabs Friday Recap, you can find links to all of that content, for your weekend reading pleasure.
General
– Thresholds and Balance in our DFS Trends Tool, by Matthew Freedman
The real problem with threshold trends is that most people don’t use them to gauge potential ‘outlieriness.’ They use these trends believing that they provide an accurate representation of what, on average, should be expected from the players who inspired the trends. A lot of people create trends incorrectly. I’m not going to say that it’s the ‘right’ way — because each trend can serve a function if used properly — but a better way to build trends is with balance.
– DFS Assumptions and Using Bargain Rating Across Sports, by Bryan Mears
Take Bargain Rating, a FantasyLabs-unique metric that identifies value by measuring the difference between a player’s FanDuel and DraftKings salaries. But there are questions about Bargain Rating: Is a high Bargain Rating better on FanDuel or DraftKings? Is it equally valuable for all positions of a sport? Is it even equally valuable for all sports?
– Video: How to Transition From a Fish to a Shark, Part 1
In the first part of this series, Jay Persson walks through how to use FantasyLabs’ free tools to improve your DFS game.
Golf
– Video: 2016 US Open Model Preview
Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) walks through his personal model for this week’s 2016 US Open.
– FantasyLabs Podcast: PGA DFS Milly Maker Strategy
Bryan Mears is joined by Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) to discuss strategies for the DraftKings PGA DFS Milly Maker.
– The Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable #16
Matthew Freedman is joined by Christian Drappi and Colin Davy, who discuss PGA course history.
– Final Thoughts on Course History, by Colin Davy
Let’s say that course history works one of two ways. For 10 percent of the time, you get an 80 percent boost to your performance — or 80 percent of the time you get a 10 percent boost to your performance. Over the long term, that adjustment will average out to an eight-percent boost, but that advantage will manifest itself in very different ways depending on how course history works. Understanding this distribution is critical to determining if course history is more or less important for cash games or guaranteed prize pools.
– Jordan Spieth, the US Open, and Maximizing Upside in PGA DFS Contests, by Bryan Mears
Despite the highly negative movement on Spieth’s odds, he still boasts the third-best VBR in the field this week. It is obviously nowhere close to Day’s and McIlroy’s, given their similar pricing yet large differences in odds, but it is really important to note that Spieth is still a ‘Vegas Bargain’ despite his negative movement and despite his high salary. I’ve been on this horse for a while: The favorites are incredibly undervalued in terms of Upside.
MLB
– MLB DFS Slate Breakdown: Friday 6/17, by John Daigle
Matt Shoemaker and Julio Urias enter the slate respectively averaging 8.4 to 11.59 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9). Using our free Trends tool, we can screen for pitchers using those SO/9 marks as our lower and upper bounds. Unsurprisingly, pitchers who fall within those limits do well on DraftKings, averaging a +1.26 Plus/Minus. And that makes sense, right? When a high-strikeout pitcher gives up some runs, his strikeouts counterbalance the fantasy points he has lost. And if he doesn’t give up runs, then his strikeouts give him a reasonable chance of reaching his Upside.
– MLB DFS Data Dive: Friday 6/17, by J.J. Calle
All credit goes to a subscriber who introduced me to the following trend: Gray has produced a +5.59 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +9.59 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in nine career road starts. As he is today, he was the underdog in seven of those games. Gray’s 91 Park Factor leads all pitchers. Especially with a 95-percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, Gray has proven his mettle enough (on the road) to warrant tournament consideration.
– FanDuel Salaries and the Relationship Between Plus/Minus and Consistency, by Matthew Freedman
When I looked at the data for all FanDuel batters from 2012 to yesterday, I found that Plus/Minus and Consistency are correlated, with an r-squared value of 0.54. In other words, 54 percent of the variance that we see in Consistency is explained by Plus/Minus. In MLB DFS, Plus/Minus explains Consistency more than any other factor or metric does (at least on FanDuel). What this means is that if you are looking for players with high Consistency then you should probably just look for players with high Plus/Minus values. And vice versa.
– MLB Trend Testing: What About the Weather?, by Bill Monighetti
We know that home runs are more likely to occur in certain types of weather. We also presume, based on our collection of advanced data, that there are some batted-ball statistics that lead to more home runs — or at least highlight the existence of power that often correlates with home runs. This trend is an intersection of those two ideas.
– MLB DFS Recent Form Report: Monday 6/13, by Kelly McCann
Since striking out 20 batters and accumulating 59.15 DraftKings points on May 11, Scherzer has struck out ‘only’ an average of 8.2 batters and averaged ‘just’ 26.79 DraftKings points per game in five starts. What the hell is wrong with him? According to our advanced data, absolutely nothing is wrong with him.
Trends
– MLB: Monday 6/13: Bargain Hitters in Great Hitting Conditions, by Tyler Buecher
– MLB: Tuesday 6/14: AL Teams with High Vegas Totals at Coors Field, by Brandon Hopper
– MLB: Wednesday 6/15: Low PPG Hitters with Positive Differentials, by J.J. Calle
– MLB: Thursday 6/16: High-Priced Pitchers With Bad Vegas Data, by Bryan Mears
– MLB: Friday 6/17: Cheap FanDuel Pitchers with Good Moneylines, by Bryan Mears
