The 2016 US Open
There is no other tournament quite like the U.S. Open. Although the location of the tournament changes year to year, the United Stats Golf Association gives this tournament consistency by making the courses as difficult as possible. Oakmont Country Club, which will host for the first time since 2007, is not a course that needs the U.S. Open treatment to stand as one of the most difficult tests in all of golf.
Accuracy statistics will be important this week, as even the slightest misses will leave golf balls tangled in the overgrown rough. There are overgrown ditches that play as a hazard along some of the fairways, and there are also 210 bunkers, many of which line the driving zones.
Oh, and we can’t forget about the greens. If you’re wondering how unreal those might be, look no further than this video Byeong Hun An posted to his Instagram account.
I think it is safe to assume that we have all gotten the point: This course is going to be incredibly difficult. Birdies should be hard to come by, which should cause the finishing bonuses on DraftKings to be a main source of points this week.
Course History?
If you have read this article before, then you know we typically dive into course history around this time, but since this tournament rotates from course to course, there really isn’t any history to dive into. I did, however, dive into the past results for this tournament. If you are curious what kind of golfer performs well under U.S. Open conditions, here are the top-25 finishers from the past five years. As a bonus, I also included the top-25 finishers from the 2007 U.S. Open, when it was last played at Oakmont CC.
Below. I will highlight those golfers who have at least three top-25 finishes through the past five years. Again, I included their 2007 results simply for your benefit, but I did not count those results as being one of the three finishes necessary to appear on the list below. Again, due to the nature of this event, this list has nothing to do with course history and everything to do with the type of golfer who has performed well under the difficult U.S. Open conditions.
In general, those who have recently shown well at the event are incredibly talented, all-around great golfers as well as some course managers. The top golfers are at a premium this week and a stars-and-scrubs strategy could be worth employing if it allows top-tier talent to be included in your roster.
Let’s break down some players.
$9,000 – $12,100
With Jason Day (12,100), Rory McIlroy ($12,000), and Jordan Spieth ($11,900) leading the way as the top golfers in the official world golf rankings and the most expensive options this week, there will be some tough decisions to be made. Since I doubt that anyone needs more reason to roster either of these players, I’ve decided that it may be interesting and useful to make a short argument against rostering each of the big three.
Jordan Spieth: His strength is his putter, which is a high-variance aspect of any golfer’s game and could be marginalized by the difficulty of the greens. Also, it is worth noting that though his driving distance has improved, his Recent Driving Accuracy of 56.3 percent is six points lower than his 12-month average.
Rory McIlroy: He is prone to making big numbers, which will be more difficult to overcome on a course with few scoring opportunities. His form coming into this tournament is unreal, but his string of solid finishes is in large part due to his scoring on Par-5s, as illustrated by his -9.3 adjusted strokes below par per tournament through his last four events. Unfortunately for Rory, there are only two par-5s at Oakmont.
Jason Day: His Long-Term Driving Accuracy of 54.5 percent is the second-worst in this range of salaries. This has been something he overcomes by hitting 69.3 percent of his Greens in Regulation, but that should be a much more difficult task out of the overgrown rough this week. He is coming off of a win and a T27 in his last two events, but he averaged only 26.3 putts per round through those events.
It feels like a stretch to argue against playing these guys. I think that Day can overcome the tough conditions. His streaky putting is concerning, but if you remember the third round of the Players Championship (where the greens were absurdly hard and fast), Day still managed a GIR of 77.78 percent and averaged two putts per green hit. In a tournament where scoring isn’t expected to be overwhelming, hitting greens and two-putting for par could be all Jason needs to take it down this weekend.
If you are looking outside of the big three, Henrik Stenson ($9,100) should carry lower ownership relative to some of the other high-priced options this week. His Long-Term Putts Per Round of 29.8 is the worst in this range of salaries, and that number has gotten worse through his last three events. However, he is deadly accurate, hitting 69.5 percent of his fairways and 74.1 percent of his GIR over a span of the past 72 weeks. He missed the cut at his last PGA Tour event but finished fourth overseas at the Nordea Masters earlier this month. With a premium on ball striking, Stenson has the tools necessary to compete over the weekend.
$7,000 – 8,900
The strength of this week’s field has brought some golfers’ salaries down, with Matt Kuchar ($8,500) being one of the most notable examples. Kuch has been priced below $9,000 on only 11 occasions, and per our free Trends tool he has a +11.77 Plus/Minus in those 11 events. There may not be another golfer on tour in better form than Kuchar, who has finished at least top-six in his last four events. Game theory and roster construction should play a large part in a decision to roster Kuch, as he is likely to be one of the most popular options in this week’s Milly Maker.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,300) has managed a GIR of 73.4 percent in his last 47 events. Additionally, he has hit 69.9 percent of his fairways in regulation in that span. Most of those events have been away from the PGA Tour, but he has been able to maintain close to those averages on his two most recent PGA Tour appearances, in which he hit 66 percent of his greens and 67 percent of his fairways. His top-10 finish at the Masters showed an ability to compete with the best in the world, and he is coming into this event fresh off of a win at the Nordea Masters in Sweden.
Russel Knox ($7,600) and Jim Furyk ($7,700) are nearly mirror images of one another. They are separated by only 1.1 percentage point in both Long-Term Driving Accuracy and GIR. They both fit what I am looking for in this tournament, but the knock against Furyk is that he hasn’t shown much since returning from his wrist injury. Knox’s Recent Adj Rd Score is a full stroke better than Jim’s. Furyk’s T2 at this course in 2007 could inflate his ownership. Knox serves as an excellent and comparably-priced pivot option.
$5,400 – $6,900
At the top of this price range sits Emiliano Grillo ($6,900), who’s coming off of an 11th-place finish at the Memorial two weeks ago. His Long-Term Adj Rd Score of 69.7 is tied for seventh-best in this range of salaries, and he has hit 70.1 percent of his greens over the last five tournaments. His putting has been horrid, but (if you’re noticing a theme here) his 30.4 PPR in that time isn’t too concerning if he is able to keep his pace hitting greens. He did miss the cut at The Players Championship, but he showed an ability to compete in strong fields with a 17th-place finish at the Masters earlier this season.
Brendan Steele ($6,900) is only the second player to have 11 Pro Trends when priced below $7,000. He has made the cut in four straight events, with three top-20 finishes and a T57 at The Players Championship. He isn’t incredibly accurate off of the tee, but he has managed to hit 69.2 percent of his greens through his last 32 events. Inaccuracy off of the tee could kill him this week, but the roster flexibility he provides is almost too good to ignore when considering his Long-Term Adj RD Score of 69.4 and Upside of 50 percent on the year.
The Finishing Hole
The U.S. Open is tough. Not only does the course change each year, but the course is always made as challenging as possible. At the same time, this all makes for an incredibly fun event. Most people remember what Dustin Johnson did on the 72nd hole to lose the tournament last year, but not much is made of the shot Spieth hit just before that for the win. Here’s that shot.
Best of luck this weekend!
