In this space each week I take a look at which teams, as a whole, are trending up through the lens of our advanced stats. Understanding which teams are hitting the ball hard, and whether they are producing or not, is a great way to determine which lineups may lend themselves to stacking.

It should go without saying, but each individual matchup needs to be evaluated on a daily basis. To ensure that you are using the best, most up-to-date information possible, be sure to check out the free Lineups page and — for our subscribers — the Trends tool and Player Models.

Cleveland Indians

Having outproduced Vegas‘ implied run total in four of seven games over the previous week, the Indians have undergone an offensive reawakening akin to that of a certain fictional Major League team that called Cleveland home decades ago. Through the first half of the season to date the Indians managed just under 4.2 runs per game but have upped that total by an additional 1.1 runs per game since then.

Despite the fact that Willie Mays Hays isn’t taking the field for this squad anytime soon, this rejuvenated lineup should be just fine — although I’m sure that a favorable (i.e. any) offer could pry Wesley Snipes away from his “busy” film schedule if needed. [Editor’s Note: In all fairness to Wesley, the odds are probably higher than we think that right now he’s filming another Blade sequel.]

The top half of this lineup in particular has been tearing things up of late, producing (on a per-player basis) almost double-digit DraftKings points per game over the previous week.

 

Last week, the one through five lineup spots averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.34, a very solid return on investment for anyone who opted to roll out this stack.

Sustainable Success

I’ve touched on the importance of Hard-Hit and Distance Differential in this space before. These metrics measure how hard and how far a batter is hitting the ball over the previous fifteen days as compared to his yearly averages. Because the metrics are independent of a player’s production, they allow us to gauge how well a player is actually performing, regardless of whether he is producing fantasy statistics.

In the case of the Indians, a number of their core lineup members are sitting among the league leaders in each category.

 

Each of the four players above generally occupy lineup spots in or near the top half of the order, making them prime stacking options. Let’s look at how players with comparable differentials and lineup spots have performed historically.

 

Keep in mind that the above figures are independent of any other variables. So this is prior to factoring in a player’s splits, pitching matchup, Park Factor, etc. Rostering a stack of Cleveland bats in an optimal spot will only increase the Plus/Minus, unlocking real value.

Boston Red Sox

I don’t have any outdated movie references to use in this Red Sox intro, unless you want to revisit the end of Jimmy Fallon’s film career instant classic Fever Pitch.

Luckily for us, Boston’s lineup doesn’t require much of an introduction. Most DFS players are familiar with David Ortiz and company at this point. And although we may all be accustomed to the elite production that the big-name batters are capable of — the top half of this lineup has produced an average Plus/Minus of +1.21 per player over the previous week — there are a number of supporting players who have recently shown promise.

Filling in the Holes

Players with name recognition and production are pricey, which can make stacking a team with a number of such players difficult. Luckily, with Boston we’ve got alternative options.

Once again looking at Hard-Hit and Distance Differentials, we can find a number of late-in-the-order options who may be able to help round out a stack of pricier Boston batters.

 

Initial thoughts?

We’re looking at Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts, and a whole lot of “meh” consisting of players who are generally uninspiring options. But, as the advanced stats indicate, they may warrant some consideration if you’re looking to fill a hole in your lineup when stacking this roster.

There’s risk to rostering bottom-of-the-order players, particularly those in platoon situations, but taking a calculated risk on a player like Chris Young and his 95th-percentile Distance and Hard-Hit Differentials can differentiate a popular stack such as Boston and pay big dividends in larger tournaments.