As daily fantasy sports players, we typically want to be on the same side as the sharps. FantasyLabs helps us do that by charting reverse line movement on the Vegas Dashboard. I’ve written previously on how hitters perform on the sharp side of reverse line movement. This article will study how pitchers do when accompanied by reverse line movement.
What is reverse line movement? When Team A garners most of the betting action but the line moves in favor of Team B, that’s reverse line movement. It usually signifies that sharp (albeit ‘unpopular’) money likes Team B. This information can be valuable in guaranteed prize pools because (per Labs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales’ new book) there’s a correlation between the popular Vegas teams and DFS ownership. Historically, rostering players on the ‘correct’ side of reverse line movement allows exposure to sharp teams at low ownership, which Pro subscribers can review across tournaments of all stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard after lineups lock.
Reverse Line Movement for Pitchers
Using our Trends tool, I created this matrix of FanDuel Plus/Minus values for pitchers whose teams experience reverse line movement:
With a favorable moneyline differential of -1 to -20 and 49 percent or less of moneyline bets, this trend has a FanDuel Plus/Minus of -0.38 with 3.7 percent average ownership. When the moneyline moves between -21 and -40, the result is a +0.88 Plus/Minus and 4.2 percent ownership.
With more extreme reverse line movement we get samples that are small, but collectively all such cases (68 in total) have a +2.66 Plus/Minus, 57.4 percent Consistency Rating, and 9.4 percent ownership.
When the parameters are set for moneyline differentials of -21 and above and moneyline bets between 21 and 49 percent, we get the following result:
Reverse Line Movement and (Home) Favorites
Favored pitchers usually have higher ownership, but with reverse line movement we’re dealing with unpopular favorites. Given that favorites perform better than underdogs, unpopular favorites are an intriguing group.
Here’s the same matrix as above but only for favored pitchers:
The subgroups with larger samples have a collective +1.74 Plus/Minus, 54.3 percent Consistency Rating, and six percent Upside Rating, and 6.1 percent ownership. The sample size is 1,518.
These numbers also improve for home favorites, with a +2.14 Plus/Minus and similar Consistency and Upside Ratings and ownership average. The sample size is still 1,238. Road favorites in the above sample have a Plus/Minus of -0.02.
Reverse Line Movement and K Predictor
Our K Predictor is one of the site’s most powerful metrics and an indicator of potential upside. Here’s the matrix for pitchers with K Predictions of at least five:
The subgroups with larger samples have a collective +1.40 Plus/Minus, 53.5 percent Consistency Rating, 5 percent Upside Rating, and 4.8 percent ownership average.
Reverse Line Movement and Mid-K Home Favorites
We’ve seen that favorites perform better than underdogs, favorites are better at home than on the road, and K predictor is king. Let’s tie everything together by looking at home favorites with five-plus K Predictors, moneyline differentials of at least -21, and moneyline percentages between 20 and 49 percent:
What We Learned
Reverse line movement can be a good indicator for low-owned pitchers. When a guy has positive reverse line movement and other factors that recommend him, he historically has a strong likelihood of achieving success at relatively low ownership.
Labs and Reverse Line Movement
To spot reverse line movement, keep an eye on our Vegas Dashboard. The “RLM” column to the right shows a check mark when a team has positive reverse line movement. An “X” means that a team is getting more of the bets but experiencing negative line movement — hence, negative reverse line movement (which isn’t good).
Also, reverse line movement can be spotted and researched in our Trends tool. Once you’ve made your trends, they’ll be available in our Player Models, where you can use our Lineup Builder to construct DFS rosters with pitchers who benefit from positive reverse line movement.
Our MLB News feed sometimes points out reverse line movement, so be sure to consult that Labs Tool as well.
