Same game parlays are one of the most entertaining ways to bet. It allows you to place multiple wagers over the same contest, giving you more upside than a traditional wager without having to sweat out multiple games.
It also allows you to build some correlation into your parlays. That correlation will be factored in by the sportsbooks, but that still creates an opportunity for bettors. You can build out bet slips where if one leg hits, it makes it more likely that the others will hit as well.
Let’s dive into my favorite same game parlay for Friday’s MLB slate, featuring the Yankees and Phillies.
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Over 0.5 First Inning Runs
The theme of this same game parlay will be offense, for a few reasons. The most obvious is the lineups involved, as both teams are top 10 in wRC+ both overall and against right-handed pitching.
Yankees starter Will Warren has a 4.91 ERA on the season, and while Taijuan Walker has been better at 3.75, his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA marks are all in the mid-fours. On top of that, we’re getting tremendous hitting weather in New York, with a 10% boost to scoring and a 25.7% boost to home runs.
My YRFI/NRFI model has the true price of a YRFI as a bit below the heavily juiced -155 odds, but that’s where the SGP comes in. Since we can combine that bet with other correlated outcomes, we can use this as a relatively likely anchor leg for our parlay.
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Taijuan Walker 3+ Walks Allowed
We’re getting solid plus-money on Walker’s walks prop, for fairly obvious reasons. He hasn’t cleared this line since May, though he’s issued at least two free passes in plenty of games since then.
He also hasn’t faced the Yankees this season. That matters for two reasons. New York is tied for third in the majors with a 9.7% walk rate, largely driven by teams frequently pitching around Aaron Judge. New York’s projected lineup also features six left-handed bats, and Walker’s walk rate against lefties is 14.5%
That’s more than four times as high as his 3.5% mark against righties, and one of the righties he’ll be facing tonight is Judge. Combining this with the YRFI prop brings the odds of the parlay all the way to +310.
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Aaron Judge 1+ Home Runs
While +150 odds on a home run prop isn’t usually a good bet, we have Judge projected for 0.47 home runs in our Action Network Prop Tool. That’s a solid value compared to +150 odds, even though I should point out that 0.47 home runs is not the same thing as a 47% chance of a home run.
While Walker tends to pitch around lefties, he’s given up twice as many home runs to right-handed hitters this season as lefties, despite facing just a few more overall. With the wind blowing out in a home-run-friendly ballpark, those are all good signs for Judge.
Adding this prop to the SGP brings the total odds to a juicy +800, and I like Giancarlo Stanton as an alternate option. His +235 line brings the total odds to +1200 if you want to take an even bigger swing.
Pictured: Aaron Judge
Photo Credit: Imagn
