Round 4 of the PGA Championship will be underway Sunday morning, so let’s dive into a quick breakdown of Sunday’s Showdown slate on DraftKings.
Brooks Koepka ($11,1000) has been dominant thus far, ranking second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and first in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. If opting to pay up for someone it should be Brooks because he’s just throttling the competition in every facet of the game. It should come to no surprise that he’s first in birdies gained through the first three rounds.
Dustin Johnson ($10,500) checks in just behind Koepka in the various metrics this week at Bethpage. Overall, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, third in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
That said, Brooks has still gained +6.9 strokes from tee-to-green this tournament, and DJ still trails Brooks by 7.1 in Total Strokes Gained.
Golfers to Buy
If you need some salary relief, Erik Van Rooyen’s ($7,400) +7.1 strokes gained on approach trails only Koepka. While I’m not sure if this is sustainable for him on a course this difficult, he’s in terrific form right now as his +10.0 Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green is a top-three mark in the field.
Jason Kokrak ($7,600) would be a solid tournament pivot over Van Rooyen considering he ranks fourth in Stroke Gained: Off-the-Tee, sixth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green through the first three rounds. The main thing holding him back? He’s lost -3.6 strokes putting. Although, the lack of a placing bonus isn’t ideal.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,100) will fit well into balanced builds. Per usual, his putter has been the worst aspect of his game, but he’s gained +7.3 strokes ball striking and +8.7 strokes tee-to-green, which ranks fourth and fifth in the field through three rounds, but he’s priced as the No. 8 golfer.
Matt Wallace ($7,300) is another intriguing option from the low $7,000 range. His game has been well balanced thus far. Not only has his putting been great (sixth in Strokes Gained: Putting), but he ranks in the top 20 in most of the crucial metrics we weighed coming into the week. Wallace ranks ninth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, along with 17th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Golfers to Fade
Jordan Spieth ($10,100) predictably struggled on Saturday after ranking first in Strokes Gained: Putting through the first two rounds while struggling off the tee and on approach. Now through three rounds, Spieth has lost -0.5 strokes on approach and gained just 2.2 strokes from tee-to-green, which ranks 58th. While Spieth’s rank of eighth in total strokes gained might look impressive, most of it is only from putting.
Justin Rose ($9,500) looked like he was about to turn the burners on after the second round, but he struggled all of Saturday, gaining only +1.1 strokes off-the-tee and +1.2 strokes putting, otherwise he lost strokes everywhere else.
Abraham Ancer ($7,200) shot -1 on Saturday, but the only area he gained strokes on was putting. It was a rather impressive showing with the putter as he gained +6.0 strokes with the flat stick while losing -2.7 strokes tee-to-green. Those are the exact metrics we look for when fading someone in matchup betting markets, along with DFS.
- After a slow start to the tournament, Rory McIlroy ($9,300) gained +4.3 strokes tee-to-green and +3.8 strokes ball striking in Round 3. Both marks narrowly trailed only Koepka on Thursday.
- Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this week, and he’s even been sinking some putts, gaining +4.6 strokes putting through three rounds.
- Harold Varner ($6,700) could also be a fade candidate as he ranks second in Strokes Gained: Putting and 53rd in Strokes Gained: Approach. Although he’s still probably punt-worthy at his price, especially since he’s starting the tourney in second place.
- Sung Kang ($8,300) has been great off the tee, but he might be too expensive for someone who ranks 64th in Strokes Gained: Approach. He’s been making up most of his strokes greenside, ranking third in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
- Xander Schauffele ($9,100) could be in store for a nice fourth round after he shot -3 on Saturday. He’s at least staying out of trouble, for the most part, ranking third in greens in regulation gained.
- Luke List ($7,800) is another guy who may be exceeding expectations, ranking 60th in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. Regression could be coming considering he ranks 78th in fairways gained as well.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports